Will Florida reach #1 on COVID deaths per capita?

[_.]

No lol

Deaths are peaking here (which makes sense as cases and positivity rates peaked three weeks ago) and COVID-19's epicenter has moved northward (and will continue to move northward throughout the winter). This is how the virus works, especially with the higher R-Value of the Delta variant (which will keep cases and deaths up even with mass vaccination).

In fact, we should expect it to recede from its current position of #10 over the coming months.

-SNIP- with lower than actual Florida numbers

The CDC is using the 2020 Census Results and has the latest data for Florida. Worldometers gets its Florida data very slowly and is currently more than 1K Florida deaths behind the CDC, so I advise to choose the CDC over Worldometers for this purpose.


Snapshot as of September 16, 2021 - Deaths per 100K people

1. 307 - Mississippi
2. 305 - New Jersey
3. 286 - Louisiana
4. 271 - New York state (adding NYC + rest of NYS together and dividing by 202.01249)
5. 267 - Massachusetts
6. 265 - Arizona
6. 265 - Rhode Island
8. 262 - Alabama
9. 243 - Arkansas
10. 236 - Florida
10. 236 - Connecticut
10. 236 - South Dakota


States which are likely to be hit hardest will be the Dakotas, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming, being Northern states with extraordinarily low vaccination rates. South Dakota especially is likely to surpass Florida soon.


The summer peak isn't as bad as the winter one nationwide, but it is in Florida (as well as much of the South).

[_.]

-SNIP-

Nope, they're using the 2019 estimates too.  As to Worldometer vs CDC vs WaPo yeah there is an obvious attempt to slow roll some of the data by the states.  I tend to use the higher number of the various sources.

Thank you very much for the correction! The reason I was wrong was because to check if the population was 2020 census all I did was multiply some of the Southern states' death counts by the death rates and then saw that they were more or less similar to the 2020 Census result (with some being dead-on!). Only now that I check states in which there were significant overperformances and underperformance do I see the differences.

Well, anyway I've just re-done the table above using proper numbers up to rank #12.
This is the actual current death rate (SEP 17, 2021) per 100K by state:

1. 311 - Mississippi
2. 292 - New Jersey
3. 287 - Louisiana
4. 271 - New York state (adding NYC + rest of NYS together and dividing by 202.01249)
4. 271 - Arizona
6. 262 - Massachusetts
7. 260 - Alabama
8. 256 - Rhode Island
9. 246 - Arkansas
10. 236 - Florida
10. 236 - South Dakota
12. 234 - Connecticut