Looks like the rounding on the last batch threw off the real numbers a bit (I approximated).
At any rate, here's pre- and post-new batch figures with 3 scenarios showing what Palin needs.
If the few remaining precincts/votes are close in size and composition to this most recent dump, then Palin's share to win in all below scenarios will get bumped up by another 2 percentage points or so.
EDIT: I also didn't factor in write-in votes/transfers here; including those, Palin's needed % likely drops by a fraction of a point in all scenarios.
With 100% Begich Transfer
Pre-Dump
Peltola +13194
Begich 49456
Palin Need: 31325 63.34%
Post-Dump
Peltola +16347
Begich 52320
Palin Need: 34333 65.62%
With 90% Begich Transfer
Pre-Dump
Peltola +13194
Begich 44510
Palin Need: 28852 64.82%
Post-Dump
Peltola +16347
Begich 47088
Palin Need: 31718 67.36%
With 80% Begich Transfer
Pre-Dump
Peltola +13194
Begich 39565
Palin Need: 26380 66.67%
Post-Dump
Peltola +16347
Begich 41856
Palin Need: 29102 69.53%
How likely do you think it is that she hits those numbers?
