Pennsylvania has been Trending right since 2004

[TheReckoning]

Thoughts?

Could be a part of the new 7th party system

[TheReckoning]

what do you consider to be the 7th?  If 7th started in 1992, it's already ending. 2020 or 2024 will likely end it.

I would say it started in 2008, with the election of Barry. Clinton was pretty conservative, and the 1994 elections proved the Republican dominance of the 6th system wasn’t over.

[TheReckoning]

However, I will stick to my belief that the last major re-alignment was Clinton's. I maaaybe would have considered Obama's victory to be the Democrats "1968" but that would also mean Biden should have performed like Reagan, Democrats "1980." And they didn't so I consider that to be null and void. This means that the Republican party is only due for their next realignment, I just don't know exactly when. 50% chance it happens in 2024, 80% chance it happens in 2028 ( a new critical mass of voters that may favor the GOP, esp if Democrats barely scrap the EC in 2024), and a 150% chance it happens in 2032.

Biden pulled the largest margin for a Democrat since the realignment of 2008, and I’m predicting he’s gonna do better in 2024. The fact of the matter is that this Party system is extremely polarized so you’re not going to get the landslides of the 5th and 6th.

The 1992 election was no more of a realignment than the 2000 election.

[TheReckoning]

2004 is arbitrarily point in time. Obama has done exceptionally well in the Midwest and Rust Belt in 2008 and 2012. PA was much closer in 2000 and 2004. The state now just has returned to a tossup state with a slight D-lean. Mr. Trump managed to overcome this lean in 2016 because he tapped into dissatisfaction and faced an opponent who apparently was a bad fit for the region. We'll have to see what happens in 2024 and beyond, particularly with a non-Trump GOP nominee.

Secondly, PA had 2 GOP senators in 2004, which is no longer the case since 2007. Meanwhile, the governorship was traded every 8 years since the 1-term limit was repealed in the 1970s, with the exception of 2014, in which a GOP gov was defeated after a single term.

Midwestern states like OH and IA have indeed moved right in recent years (though OH was always R-leaning), but PA has just returned to normal after Obama.

Pennsylvania has a less-D PVI in 2008 than 2004.

[TheReckoning]

2004 is arbitrarily point in time. Obama has done exceptionally well in the Midwest and Rust Belt in 2008 and 2012. PA was much closer in 2000 and 2004. The state now just has returned to a tossup state with a slight D-lean. Mr. Trump managed to overcome this lean in 2016 because he tapped into dissatisfaction and faced an opponent who apparently was a bad fit for the region. We'll have to see what happens in 2024 and beyond, particularly with a non-Trump GOP nominee.

Secondly, PA had 2 GOP senators in 2004, which is no longer the case since 2007. Meanwhile, the governorship was traded every 8 years since the 1-term limit was repealed in the 1970s, with the exception of 2014, in which a GOP gov was defeated after a single term.

Midwestern states like OH and IA have indeed moved right in recent years (though OH was always R-leaning), but PA has just returned to normal after Obama.

Pennsylvania has a less-D PVI in 2008 than 2004.

PVI is a meaningless metric. PA "trended" left in 2004 despite Bush improving more than Kerry did in the state.

PVI isn’t meaningless. Of course Bush improved in 2004, he had an incumbency advantage. Doesn’t mean the state is trending.