Hmmm... in the medium-long rung, I do think there's a very plausible scenario where the Dem base fractures like they did in the 1920's or 1890's with some strong protest-oriented left wing independent performances and then there's a Republican lock on federal politics for 10-20 years because of this.
However, if you mean in 2024, that would be pretty darn hard. First of all, Dems held together enough to nominate Biden for one more cycle without major controversy. They would have to flip a senate seat in one of NM/VA and sweep everything that voted right of them in 2020 for a supermajority. That includes places like Minnesota that are really Dem downballot.
TBH it also feels like a long term Republican senate supermajority has been "one election away" since like 2012 now. Dems always find a way to do just well enough to shut it down. Perhaps this is the nature of campaigning when you know which states are going to be decisive. In any event, Dems not getting blown out in 2022 was potentially a historically big deal because it made a double digit Biden 2020 state R seat #60 going into 2024 when it could have easily been a Biden by 1ish/Trump 2016 state as seat #60 if D's lost a few seats in 2022.
I don't mean a supermajority in 2024, can't really see the GOP getting above 55 Senate seats and even then its a stretch. Anything over 52-48 GOP is tough with Dems having either strong incumbents or weak GOP challengers in AZ, PA, WI etc.
In theory there is the potential for a quick bounce back among Dems if Trump wins in 2026 but I am not so sure it happens. If Biden loses with inflation below 4% and a growing economy, it may be a sign that the Dems coalition is the problem. A lot of their staffers and academic supporters genuinely want the party to become the garbage that the Labor party became from 2010 until now in Britain. And the economic policies of blue state elites regarding housing (see CA, NY, NJ, MA, CT) are getting increased scrutiny from those in the middle. The Dems might not be a winning party again until the problem politicians like Elizabeth Warren are out of the picture.
I mean, let's not act like there aren't just as many fissures within the Republican Party even right now. The rhetoric and demand for fealty covers some of those currently. But...the thing about being a one-man show that sucks up all the oxygen in the room means there's going to be a serious vacuum of power within the party that is going to result in a very contentious and fractious fight for control once Trump is gone.
