Will Ron DeSantis win re-election?

[AlterEgo]

A lot of you guys are seriously overestimating DeSantis.

Dude, we not only elected Rick Scott, we then reelected him, then sent him to the Senate.

He's a FL Gov with an R by his name. He's very likely to be reelected.

As to the prognostication on Crist winning a Senate seat: no way. Completely impossible for Crist to ever win statewide again.

[AlterEgo]

People are getting a bit overboard declaring Florid a red state after two bad performance by the democrats. Gubernatrioal races are still swingy and non-polarized, Ron Desantis basically blew through any moderate goodwill that he had initially built-up in taking on big sugar and protecting the Everglades by completely dropping the ball with regards to Covid-19.

He's in trouble if his response continue to remain sh**t and the democrats can find a candidate able to connect to the states hispanics.

Well, I mean, at some point facts just have to be faced. Will FL vote for D's in a presidential election? Sure. Has it happened since 1952 where the D didn't have a really good national environment and went on to win the overall election? No.

Gubernatorial elections aren't "swingy." Sure, they've been close, but FL hasn't sent a D to the Governor's Mansion since the election of 1994. Swingy doesn't just mean close, it means that, at least sometime, one has to actually win.

Personally, I think very few people even know about his battle with Big Sugar, and the reality is that I think most moderates are actually heavily in favor of attempting to improve the environment here in FL. At least part of the reason his approval rating was so good last December.

Yeah, his approval based on COVID has slipped; he's about 4-5 points underwater right now. But, in the same FAU poll in early-Oct that found him 5 points underwater, Trump was 7 points underwater in the state. And we see how that turned out.

[AlterEgo]

The Titanium Tilt R curse is real.

Do you think he'll be able to come back to positive approval, and do you think some of that drop is from Republican Seniors scared of covid?

My main point is that I don't think DeSantis necessarily needs to get back to positive approval. As I stated, that same FAU poll showing him 5 points underwater showed Trump 7 points underwater, and Trump went on to win the state by 3 percent. So, I don't think he needs to.

Can he? Absolutely. He'll never see those lofty numbers he had pre-January, but he could get back to a slight positive approval. Voters have short memories, and how much will they care about all this in 2022 if everything else goes well?

Is it Republican seniors scared of COVID? I don't think we're really seeing that. There was certainly some talk of that in the MSM leading up to the presidential election, but that didn't really bear out. Sumter County (home of the Villages, heavily white, retirees) was supposed to be the bellweather for that, but Trump only lost 1% there this year (68.7 2016, 67.8 2020).

If we go back to polling, we see that even as late as last Dec. DeSantis was +6 even among registered Dems in the state. Even now, his approval among Republicans is still in the 88% range. But, of course it has absolutely cratered with registered Dems and has fallen to slight disapproval among NPAs.