GOP Gubernatorial Victory in California: Is it possible?

[EastwoodS]

If it's the case that, as certain polls show, Hispanics are shifting towards the GOP, maybe. Otherwise no.

I consider those polls to be junk, but even then, it's not possible. Say Democrats fall from 68% of Hispanics to around 63%, but the Hispanic vote itself increases by 2% of the share. There's no ground to gain because you still have a growing demographic heavily tilted toward the other party. And I think it goes without being said that the Hispanics that would swing GOP are not the Hispanics that live in California.

There’s no reason why Republicans can’t sweep the Hispanic vote quickly IMO

[EastwoodS]

If it's the case that, as certain polls show, Hispanics are shifting towards the GOP, maybe. Otherwise no.

I consider those polls to be junk, but even then, it's not possible. Say Democrats fall from 68% of Hispanics to around 63%, but the Hispanic vote itself increases by 2% of the share. There's no ground to gain because you still have a growing demographic heavily tilted toward the other party. And I think it goes without being said that the Hispanics that would swing GOP are not the Hispanics that live in California.

There’s no reason why Republicans can’t sweep the Hispanic vote quickly IMO

Haha, what are you talking about?

What I stated above is literally what happened in this election and Biden cleared 63% while HRC was just over 61%.

You’re not gonna thinks it’s funny when Republicans win a plurality of the Hispanic vote and keep their white margins, reducing the Democrats to a minority, it’ll be a lovely occasion of which I look forward to.

[EastwoodS]

If it's the case that, as certain polls show, Hispanics are shifting towards the GOP, maybe. Otherwise no.

I consider those polls to be junk, but even then, it's not possible. Say Democrats fall from 68% of Hispanics to around 63%, but the Hispanic vote itself increases by 2% of the share. There's no ground to gain because you still have a growing demographic heavily tilted toward the other party. And I think it goes without being said that the Hispanics that would swing GOP are not the Hispanics that live in California.

There’s no reason why Republicans can’t sweep the Hispanic vote quickly IMO

Haha, what are you talking about?

What I stated above is literally what happened in this election and Biden cleared 63% while HRC was just over 61%.

You’re not gonna thinks it’s funny when Republicans win a plurality of the Hispanic vote and keep their white margins, reducing the Democrats to a minority, it’ll be a lovely occasion of which I look forward to.

We all know that isn't going to happen.

There’s a strong 55/45 percent chance it happens. You can call me out on my bluff if Republicans don’t break 40% by 2030.

[EastwoodS]

If it's the case that, as certain polls show, Hispanics are shifting towards the GOP, maybe. Otherwise no.

I consider those polls to be junk, but even then, it's not possible. Say Democrats fall from 68% of Hispanics to around 63%, but the Hispanic vote itself increases by 2% of the share. There's no ground to gain because you still have a growing demographic heavily tilted toward the other party. And I think it goes without being said that the Hispanics that would swing GOP are not the Hispanics that live in California.

There’s no reason why Republicans can’t sweep the Hispanic vote quickly IMO

Haha, what are you talking about?

What I stated above is literally what happened in this election and Biden cleared 63% while HRC was just over 61%.

You’re not gonna thinks it’s funny when Republicans win a plurality of the Hispanic vote and keep their white margins, reducing the Democrats to a minority, it’ll be a lovely occasion of which I look forward to.

We all know that isn't going to happen.

There’s a strong 55/45 percent chance it happens. You can call me out on my bluff if Republicans don’t break 40% by 2030.

40% is not a plurality, that's a minority.

Trump probably won about 38% of Hispanics this year nationwide.

Bush won over 40% of Hispanics in 2004 and still lost California by 10 when California whites were much more Republican than they are in 2020.

Its not happening, buddy. And the idea that Republicans could appeal to Latinos without losing any other part of their base in the process is quite laughable.

It’s a slow trend that will happen. Go look at my “next 5 president predictions” on why I disagree with the former statement.