India 2024 LS and assembly elections

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Official ECI results in Varanasi. Modi is currently behind now, one to watch for sure.
https://results.eci.gov.in/PcResultGenJune2024/candidateswise-S2477.htm

Very strange.

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News24 has INDIA crossing 280 right now... seems a bit far fetched... but there is chaos right now

If trend of leading party running up leads and victories continue, NDA should end up around 300+. It could also go the other way.

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Is there any particular reason BJP is doing so much worse? Just the issue of being in power for a decade? What did Jaichind think was the reason?

One thing he said was quality of candidates were weaker as Modi and Amit Shah opted for those more controllable but weaker to manage the succession. It’s hard to say what actually happened but INC winning seats all over Hindi belt and SP delivering like it’s 2004 is making a huge difference.

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INC leading in Rajasthan, crazy.

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What are the odds Nitish Kumar is already plotting a return to the Mahagathbandhan

TDP and JDU are not beholden to BJP, they can still back out and take 25-30 seats with them. However, TDP and JDU probably won’t do that cause they now can now extort BJP. In some ways, Nitish was looking a spent force who hitched his wagon to BJP to survive a crash landing, but now he will be able to dictate terms to BJP like he’s still the senior partner.

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Is there any particular reason BJP is doing so much worse? Just the issue of being in power for a decade? What did Jaichind think was the reason?

One thing he said was quality of candidates were weaker as Modi and Amit Shah opted for those more controllable but weaker to manage the succession. It’s hard to say what actually happened but INC winning seats across all over Hindi belt and SP delivering like it’s 2004 is making a huge difference.

Its 2004 but the NDA has far more breathing room

It’s like 1999 with TDP and JDU being kingmaker for BJP. Nitish Kumar and Chandrababa Naidu can actually end Modi right now if they dare.

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Good news for Modi: BJP is winning in Gujarat 25-1 in seats and 63%-30% in votes.

Gujarat was too good to be true.

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What happened in Ladakh?

Plurality Muslims + Buddhist and Hindu. Local INC have Buddhist and Muslim factions and they quarrelled over the candidate.

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Good news for Modi: BJP is winning in Gujarat 25-1 in seats and 63%-30% in votes.

Gujarat was too good to be true.

For INDIA, presumably?

Yes, it looked like they could make it 20-6 at least. Every 3-4 seats in core BJP states would have dented NDA.

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Madhya Pradesh is best big state for BJP right now, from the looks of it. BJP sweep with them having about 64% and 40. INC sits at 30% and 0.

Probably the worst local INC. Turned certain victory in 2023 to massive defeat. A win there would have definitely affected this election the way things are falling right now.

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Good news for Modi: BJP is winning in Gujarat 25-1 in seats and 63%-30% in votes.

Bad news for Muslims and women and journalists and other people Modi's targeted.

What’s up with the women mention ?
Yeah the other two are pretty justifiable accusations but I don’t see how the BJP is particularly harmful for women.

Manipur ? Tribals? Dalits? I get what you are saying though, India doesn’t really have a large class of women who feel their freedoms are particularly restricted by BJP rule. Most of the complaining will be in caste and religious terms.

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India Today

NDA 292
INDIA 223
OTH 28

Not much movement from 30 minutes ago.

NDA can still end up with 300+ or they can go down. Still very early to make the final call. I feel 300-310 or 280-90 will make a massive difference.

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62 seats margin less than 1000. 158 margin less than 5000.. This is much closer than it is looking right now.

290 to 233 now, INDIA increasing as we get closer to 12pm.

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So assume NDA finishes at 295 could Modi get this program through

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-modi-plans-post-election-reforms-rival-chinese-manufacturing-2024-06-03/

They are at Vajpayee 1999 numbers, but there might be a new PM.  Also NDA could collapse anytime if TDP JDU pull out. NCP can pull out and reunite, Shiv Sena too. They will have other priorities.

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BJP is currently leading in two seats in Kerala, being ahead of, of all people, Shashi Tharoor. They are also taking 16%.

I always said he was vulnerable. His seat is cosmopolitan, but probably includes largest number of lean BJP. upper and middle class in Kerela.

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21 UP seats with margin less than 5000, 4 of them under 1000. Lead less than 10000 in 31 seats. Half NDA leads and half INDIA leads.

TDP + JDU presently 35 seats. Without them NDA is 260-262.

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TMC landslide in West Bengal, 30/42, and INC has 2. Massive underperformance for BJP. Odisha has saved them in east India, 18/21 presently.

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NDA 288 INDIA 236 omg

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Hahahahahahaha


Like the 2022 midterms, I'm happy to be wrong about this too!

Hopefully the NDA stops the culture war stuff but not the economic stuff. India actually needs the economic proposals to pass that are outlined here.

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-modi-plans-post-election-reforms-rival-chinese-manufacturing-2024-06-03/

That's what I am worried about as well.  I am really hoping PM Modi refocuses his attention away from 'otherizing' Muslims and other religious minorities and undermining India's democracy, and concentrates instead on modernizing India's economy as outlined in that article above along with the bureaucracy, healthcare and education systems while making sure the benefits of economic growth are spread more evenly.  It must not become a partisan issue.  

BJP had a great leader as heir to Vajpayee, Pramod Mahajan. He was killed in a family dispute in 2006 . His death was a great loss as he was just right of centre conservative, opposed to polarisation in any form.

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Doordashan India’s official government channel has NDA 287 and INDIA 237.

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Omg NDA leads evaporating, News 24 has NDA 276 and India 252. Others are more conservative and might be right, but this is getting crazy.

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Omg NDA leads evaporating, News 24 has NDA 276 and India 252. Others are more conservative and might be right, but this is getting crazy.

Hasnt NDA numbers on News 24 always been less than the others

You might be right. They seem like an outlier, but I understand that UP seats have very small leads all over. The trend is it’s going down to the wire.

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BJP is currently leading in two seats in Kerala, being ahead of, of all people, Shashi Tharoor. They are also taking 16%.

I always said he was vulnerable. His seat is cosmopolitan, but probably includes largest number of lean BJP. upper and middle class in Kerela.

Well, it was quite close in 2014.

Shashi Tharoor is still losing.

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The lead falls to 289-236 with India Today.

The numbers have been stable for a while now, maybe 1-2 going other way but not much movement.

Apparently BJP has won Thrissur in Kerela! Historic moment, first ever BJP win in Kerela.

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India Today is reporting that Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu are talking with Sharad Power.