India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[eos]

Too early to say if Modi will lose in 2024? My gut says he does if Trump did and Bolsonaro more than likely will, though politics is different in each of those 3 countries (or so it seems coming from an American).

Doesn't look like it as long as Modi retains a favourable image. Maybe Covid will affect his image, but it's hard to tell right now how the public will respond.

[eos]

Some info on the count.  They count postal first then then count predict by predict releasing results in terms of rounds.  Usually there are 15-25 rounds of counting.  

The way the count usually goes is:
a) if it is neck-to-neck then the count will be neck-to-neck throughout the count
b) if it is landslide then the scale of the landslide will get bigger the later the count goes

After the postal counts are done and 1/3 of the rounds are in looking at the vote share should tell you roughly where things will end up.

Given this, I suspect Assam and Kerala will be close the entire time while Puducherry and TN will be lopsided from the beginning.  I think WB will be pretty lopsided except no one knows who that will favor in WB.

India has postal voting?

Yes. Funnily enough, there was some controversy over postal votes in the Bihar 2020 election. Postal votes are supposed to be counted first, but they were counted last in Bihar. Coincidentally, many of the seats that returned marginal wins for the NDA were declared very very late.

The entire election was close, and NDA only won a slim majority after it looked like the opposition was going to win. The opposition predictably made allegations of rigging and electoral malpractice. I don't know what happened, but you have to admit it was suspicious that postal votes were left for the last.

[eos]

Some info on the count.  They count postal first then then count predict by predict releasing results in terms of rounds.  Usually there are 15-25 rounds of counting.  

The way the count usually goes is:
a) if it is neck-to-neck then the count will be neck-to-neck throughout the count
b) if it is landslide then the scale of the landslide will get bigger the later the count goes

After the postal counts are done and 1/3 of the rounds are in looking at the vote share should tell you roughly where things will end up.

Given this, I suspect Assam and Kerala will be close the entire time while Puducherry and TN will be lopsided from the beginning.  I think WB will be pretty lopsided except no one knows who that will favor in WB.

I think they start counting postal votes 7am IST and EVM's from 8pm IST. Assuming they take 1 hour per EVM, we might expect to have a good picture of most states by 12pm (if 15 EVM) or 4pm (25 EVM). Assam might take a while though, as well as Kerela (assuming it isn't a LDF blowout).

[eos]

Too early to say if Modi will lose in 2024? My gut says he does if Trump did and Bolsonaro more than likely will, though politics is different in each of those 3 countries (or so it seems coming from an American).

Assuming the current surge reaches its peak sometime in May and then slowly recede Modi should be OK for 2024 given the relative weakness of the alternative.  Main risk for BJP is if they somehow do something to overreach policy-wise that destroys the Modi brand or have a civil war over Modi's successor (Amit Shah vs UP CM Yogi Adityanath).

I can't imagine what it would take for Modi to become personally unpopular. He will have the support of core BJP/NDA voters no matter what, and the swing voters didn't seem bothered by the demonetisation fiasco. I have doubts that the pandemic will make too much of a dent either.

That said, wasn't UPA's win in 2004 a shock? Vajpayee was popular, and the economy was doing well. The NDA even campaigned on a "shining India" platform and seemed absolutely certain they were going to repeat. In retrospect, were there any signs of trouble? Or could the UPA hope for a miracle in 2024 too?

[eos]

Some info on the count.  They count postal first then then count predict by predict releasing results in terms of rounds.  Usually there are 15-25 rounds of counting.  

The way the count usually goes is:
a) if it is neck-to-neck then the count will be neck-to-neck throughout the count
b) if it is landslide then the scale of the landslide will get bigger the later the count goes

After the postal counts are done and 1/3 of the rounds are in looking at the vote share should tell you roughly where things will end up.

Given this, I suspect Assam and Kerala will be close the entire time while Puducherry and TN will be lopsided from the beginning.  I think WB will be pretty lopsided except no one knows who that will favor in WB.

India has postal voting?

Yes.  Traditionally this is the military vote which leans BJP.  Due to COVID-19 there are more of it now but still relatively small in number.   Still it makes a difference in close races. 

Interesting. Is there any research on the military leaning towards BJP? Any divide between officers and the rank and file? The political affiliation of soldiers seem to be a taboo subject in India.

[eos]

India has postal voting?

Yes.  Traditionally this is the military vote which leans BJP.  Due to COVID-19 there are more of it now but still relatively small in number.   Still it makes a difference in close races. 

Interesting. Is there any research on the military leaning towards BJP? Any divide between officers and the rank and file? The political affiliation of soldiers seem to be a taboo subject in India.

Over the last few election cycles election night coverage commentators often make this point (postal votes are mostly military votes and military votes lean BJP.)  I have to assume they know what they are talking about.  Of course this time around this holds less true given a large number of people that cannot come to to the polls due to COVID-19.

I see. I wasn't quite sure because many Indian soldiers are Sikhs, which, as a group, doesn't necessarily favour the BJP.

[eos]

India has postal voting?

Yes.  Traditionally this is the military vote which leans BJP.  Due to COVID-19 there are more of it now but still relatively small in number.   Still it makes a difference in close races. 

Interesting. Is there any research on the military leaning towards BJP? Any divide between officers and the rank and file? The political affiliation of soldiers seem to be a taboo subject in India.

Over the last few election cycles election night coverage commentators often make this point (postal votes are mostly military votes and military votes lean BJP.)  I have to assume they know what they are talking about.  Of course this time around this holds less true given a large number of people that cannot come to to the polls due to COVID-19.

I see. I wasn't quite sure because many Indian soldiers are Sikhs, which, as a group, doesn't necessarily favour the BJP.

Well, clearly this logic would not hold if we are talking about a Punjab election.  The assumption here is a non-Sikh military man would lean BJP.

Oh yes, I was thinking in terms of the military in general. I am still not sure to what extent being in the military changes caste/religion equations, but I guess the media will know what they are talking about.

[eos]

Too early to say if Modi will lose in 2024? My gut says he does if Trump did and Bolsonaro more than likely will, though politics is different in each of those 3 countries (or so it seems coming from an American).

Assuming the current surge reaches its peak sometime in May and then slowly recede Modi should be OK for 2024 given the relative weakness of the alternative.  Main risk for BJP is if they somehow do something to overreach policy-wise that destroys the Modi brand or have a civil war over Modi's successor (Amit Shah vs UP CM Yogi Adityanath).

I can't imagine what it would take for Modi to become personally unpopular. He will have the support of core BJP/NDA voters no matter what, and the swing voters didn't seem bothered by the demonetisation fiasco. I have doubts that the pandemic will make too much of a dent either.

That said, wasn't UPA's win in 2004 a shock? Vajpayee was popular, and the economy was doing well. The NDA even campaigned on a "shining India" platform and seemed absolutely certain they were going to repeat. In retrospect, were there any signs of trouble? Or could the UPA hope for a miracle in 2024 too?

I think the difference between 2024 and 2004 would be that the fundamentals are more in BJP's favor. Despite BJP's victory over INC in 1996 1998 and 1998 they were mostly victories of anti-incumbency (1996) and superior alliance building (1998 and 1999) while at a fundamental level INC was still stronger than the BJP.  In 2004 Vajpayee was popular but was barely not popular enough to beat back an INC that also got wise to the alliance building game.  

This time around INC will be a lot weaker relative to the BJP in 2024 when compared to 2004.  Worse INC still have an image of itself of the INC of 2004-2009 which will impede its ability to make the right deals with other anti-BJP parties.

The only thing going for INC is that the other 2 times there was an pro-incumbent landslide (1971 INC  and 1984 INC) the very next election saw the ruling party lose due to the opposition banding together (1977 and 1989.)  In both cases INC also hurt itself with increased corruption, policy overreach, and internal splits.  2021 BJP does not seem to have another of these aliments. But 2024 is still 3 years ago and plenty of times to BJP to score some self goals.  

TMC made some overtures to the INC during the election, but they might change their tune if they win a majority.

I am not sure the INC will be able to make common grounds with other non-BJP opposition parties. A deal will presumably include compromises in seat allocations, and anything too favourable to INC rivals will raise the ire of local INC outfits. Isn't that why Mamata Banerjee rebelled? That she thought the national INC tacitly accepted the Left ruling Bengal in return for support nationally?

AAP doesn't seem interested in allying with the INC. In fact, they are well-positioned to play spoilsports in states like Punjab, Gujarat and Uttrakhand.

As it is, things look real tough for INC in 2024. I think they will have to do really well on their own and hope to rope in opportunistic partners afterwards. Winning in Assam this cycle, and then wresting states from the BJP in 2022, especially Gujarat, will be a good start.

[eos]

Jaichind, are you following the election on an Indian news channel? 

[eos]

TMC leading BJP in postal ballot, with 55 to 49 so far.

In 2016, the postal ballot result was INC+Left 231 and TMC 59.

[eos]

Leads as of 10:40 according to NDTV

WB
TMC+ 154
BJP+  125
LEFT/INC 4
OTH 2
Awaiting 9

Tamil Nadu
DMK+ 131
AIADMK 98
MNM+ 1
AMMK+ 1
OTH
Awaiting 2

Kerela
LEFT 85
UDF 50
BJP+ 1
OTH 4

Assam
NDA 80
UPA 37
AJP 1
OTH 2 (RF?)
Awaiting 6

Puducherry
NDA 12
UPA 4
AMMK+ 0
OTH 1
Awaiting 13

[eos]

Everything in line with prevailing exits so far, it would seem. WB should be down to the wire.

AIADMK is greatly outperforming the opinion and exit polls.

[eos]

Assam vote share so far (I have to compute UPPL by hand) (NOTA not stripped out)

NDA    45.55%
BJP       32.46%
AGP        7.74%
UPPL      5.35%

UPA     43.17%
INC       30.39%
AIUDF     8.04%
BPF         3.88%
CPM        0.68%
CPI         0.11%
RJD         0.04%
AGM        0.03%

Looks like UPPL is sweeping Bodoland.  If these vote share trends continues this should be a comfortable win for NDA.

I am also surprised with AGP performance. Many people suggested they would be the weak link, but they have more than held their own.

INC+AIUDF are also running behind their 2016 voteshare of 31.3 + 13.2. You can see it's mainly the AIUDF, and I suspect its because they stood down in most constituencies. At the same time, the INC hasn't been able to capitalise for whatever reason. Polarisation of Hindu votes in favour of NDA maybe?

[eos]

Despite the Trinamool Congress seeming likely to hold its majority, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee seems on track to lose in Nandigram, choosing to contest in that district after contesting from Bhanipur since 2011.

I am not sure about that. As far as I know, the earlier precincts are favourbale to her opponent, Suvendhu Adhikari. According to pollster wisdom, she is supposed to claw back and win comfortably as counting goes on.

[eos]

Looks like my gut instincts are run and that there is a pro-incumbent bias in the count so far with ruling parties outperforming across the board, even in TN.

What do you mean? Pro-incumbency in the electorate, or pro-incumbent bias in the counting of the votes itself? You aren't suggesting malpractice?

[eos]

Despite the Trinamool Congress seeming likely to hold its majority, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee seems on track to lose in Nandigram, choosing to contest in that district after contesting from Bhanipur since 2011.

I am not sure about that. As far as I know, the earlier precincts are favourbale to her opponent, Suvendhu Adhikari. According to pollster wisdom, she is supposed to claw back and win comfortably as counting goes on.

Yeah my bad, she's in danger of losing, the media source I was checking framed it differently, so I checked other sources, changed my post and edited it before you posted the reply.

She will come out of this greatly strengthened. Has to be the opposition's Prime Ministerial candidate to take on Modi, although it remains to be seen whether INC will acquiescence.

[eos]

Disastrous result for INC.  Gandhi family hold on party could be in doubt after this.

I can't see any alternatives. All the INC chief ministers are Gandhi family loyalists, and there is no one besides them and maybe Deepender Singh Hooda, that can challenge them. And even Hooda is a loyalist.

There is some opposition to Rahul Gandhi from the so-called G-23 group, but they are all Sonia Gandhi loyalists.

I think INC will keep the Gandhi's and maybe agree to support a Federal Front like they did in the late 1990s.

[eos]

Disastrous result for INC.  Gandhi family hold on party could be in doubt after this.

On the other hand, potential golden opportunity nationally for Banerjee, yes?

Yes, this is her moment. She is already the de facto leader of a Federal Front that dominates Bengal, Telegana and Delhi. They also did well in the 2019 LS elections with the exception of Delhi.

[eos]

So in Assam chemistry trumped alliance.  Of course now the BJP will have the headache of figuring out who will be CM, Himanta Biswa Sarma or Sarbananda Sonowal.  I suspect given the scale of the victory Sarbananda Sonowal is more likely to be picked.

This is actually quite funny because Himanta quarreled with Tarun Gogoi because he wanted to become CM, and then defected to the BJP thinking he would be made their CM candidate in 2016. Last year he orchestrated the ouster of the BPF from the BTC because the BFP chief was pro-Sonowal and anti-Himanta. Despite all his efforts, it seems he will remain no.2.

[eos]

BPF is putting up a late fight, leading in 3 and won in 3.

[eos]

BPF is putting up a late fight, leading in 3 and won in 3.

Where do you see that?  NDTV has them ahead in zero and ECI has them ahead in 1.

https://www.news18.com/assembly-elections-2021/assam/alliance-wise-tally-results/

[eos]

This reminds me of the 2019 Thailand election.  The official system was way behind leaving to different media houses to report fairly different results.  It took days to figure what the real result were.

ECI is way behind news media. I don't know if this is normal, or Covid has affected their work.

[eos]

In Puducherry it seems BJP relents and backs AIRNC leader N. Rangaswamy become CM.  This will be the 4th time N. Rangaswamy will become CM.  He was INC CM in 2001 and 2006 but was removed by INC high command in 2008.  In 2011 he bolted from INC and formed AIRNC winning the 2011 assembly elections in an AINRC-AIADMK alliance to become CM again.  AIRNC's breakup with AIADMK for 2016 assembly election led to INC-DMK coming to power.  In 2021 he formed an alliance with BJP and AIADMK to win 2021 assembly elections and become CM again.

Note that this AINRC-BJP government is de facto another INC faction government.  BJP did not really exist in Puducherry until recently when its ranks were swelled by INC defectors looking to become CM themselves. So the new AIRNC-BJP government will be run almost all INC defectors as AINRC is an INC splinter and BJP are all recent INC defectors.

so these people are "fair-weather" BJPers who can't really be counted on to have undying loyalty to the party?

No, I don't think this type of leader is beholden to the BJP brand or ideological platform. They will go along as long as they think the BJP is their vehicle to gain public office. The situation is a bit similar to Assam, where long-time BJP/RSS cadres have been dwarfed by INC defectors. There are some jokes about the Assam BJP being "Modi's Congress".

[eos]

Another thing I noticed - Assam is 34% Muslim, yet the NDA won around 3/5 of seats.
Did they win a higher-than-normal % of the Muslim vote?

Muslims are concentrated in lower Assam, Barak Valley, and parts of Central Assam. NDA swept Upper Assam, where Muslims are negligible outside of 1 district.

Upper Assam/North Assam
NDA 39
UPA 9
OTH 1

Central Assam
NDA 12
UPA 7

Barak Valley
NDA 6
UPA 9

Lower Assam
NDA 18
UPA 25

Muslims votes are divided between AIUDF, a predominantly Muslim party, and INC. Bengali-speaking Muslims lean AIUDF, while Assamese speaking Muslims and some Bengali speaking Muslims vote INC. Bengali speaking Muslims number 6 million, while Assamese speaking Muslims are approximately 4 million.

INC's dilemma is that without an alliance with AIUDF, the Muslim votes get divided, allowing NDA to squeeze ahead in three-cornered fights. On the other hand, the NDA is typically successful in moblising the Hindu electorate on religious lines through the spectre of Muslim population growth, and, or, the presence of the AIUDF in a INC led government. In Upper Assam, this has proven particularly effective, propelling the NDA to victory.

[eos]

so these people are "fair-weather" BJPers who can't really be counted on to have undying loyalty to the party?

No, I don't think this type of leader is beholden to the BJP brand or ideological platform. They will go along as long as they think the BJP is their vehicle to gain public office. The situation is a bit similar to Assam, where long-time BJP/RSS cadres have been dwarfed by INC defectors. There are some jokes about the Assam BJP being "Modi's Congress".

The joke about "Modi's Congress" also extends to Uttarakhand.  When the BJP swept back into power in the 2017 Uttarakhand assembly elections, the number of INC rebels that found themselves as BJP candidates were so large that the Uttarakhand BJP was also called "Modi's Congress."

There are now reports of a conflict in the Assam BJP over the CM Post. Both Sarbananda Sonowal and Himanta Biswa Sarma held separate meetings with their supporters. Some of the more fanciful reports say HBS and 30-40 MLA's threatened to quit the party if he does not get CM post. Seems quite unlikely at this stage, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this is a genuine negotiating tactic. HBS and many of his proteges, especially former INC defectors, have no loyalty to BJP, Modi, or Hindutva.