India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

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https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/west-bengal-assembly-polls-2021/story/-aage-ram-pore-baam-former-leftists-form-bjp-s-backbone-in-bengal-2021-1789571-2021-04-11

"'Aage Ram, Pore Baam': Former Leftists form BJP's backbone in Bengal 2021"

Long but interesting India Today article on how the Left Front Hindu cadre drifted from Left Front to BJP since 2011 but especially after 2016.

The main lesson for AITC is: appreciate the enemies your have.  By going after Left Front cadres after 2011 with the goal of revenge for pre-2011 Left Front suppression of AITC and wiping the Left Front out, the AITC merely forced the fusion of the Left Front Hindu cadre and vote with the BJP and created a far bigger and powerful enemy in the ground with the BJP now close to defeating AITC in this WB assembly election.

India's party 'workers' are not really ideological, are they? Except perhaps for the RSS-BJP types. Kerela is held up to be this land of progressives in certain media circles, but I suspect you see religious + caste equations behind the Left vote there too.

Usually not but CPM cadres are pretty committed organizationally and most likely ideologically.  Until the collapse of the CPM in WB there are very little examples CPM MPs and MLA defecting to another party going back to the 1960s when CPM split from CPI.

So, how come the Left cadres in Bengal went over to the BJP? I know they are being targeted by TMC, but you'd think they would be opposed to BJP's Hindu-Hindi plank.

Admittedly, seems some workers being interviewed say they still have reservations about the BJP, and could switch back. I will believe it when I see it.

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Thoughts so. INC is too weak to win the assembly, but they might still spoil the LS seats for AAP. In 2019, BJP finished first, but INC second, with AAP third. Yet, AAP swept the 2020 elections.

Why does Delhi vote so differently in LS and assembly elections? I can see how LS elections might be considered a de facto referendum on Modi. However, there are still drastic differences.

2019
BJP - 56.8
INC - 22.5
AAP - 18.11

2020
AAP - 53.57
BJP - 38.51
INC - 4.26

Back in the 1980s Indians voted in assembly elections as if they were LS elections.  In the 1990s to 2010s Indians voted in LS elections as if they were assembly elections. Now they clearly split their vote.

In 2019 Delhi was voting for PM so the anti-Modi vote went INC since Rahul Gandhi was the main alternative to Modi but when it came to assembly elections the voting was based on voting for CM.

Another example of this is 2019 Kerala and TN where due to the Dravidian vs Hindi concerns voters there went heavy for UPA as the alterative to Modi (which to the voters represented Hindi).  The 2019 LS election results were

TN
UPA      53.19%
NDA     31.06%
AMMK+  5.19%
NTK       3.90%
MNM      3.68%

Kerala
UDF     47.48%
LDF      35.29%
NDA     15.64%

This time around it is clear UPA vote share will NOT reach this sort of level they reached in 2019 LS elections for the same reason as Delhi.  The 2019 vote for UPA is a vote for Rahul Gandhi as the alterative to Modi.

This effect mostly hurt BJP more since in most Indo-Aryan states there was a Modi bonus of at least 5% for the BJP that they cannot expect in assembly elections.  In WB this time the BJP vote share might exceed the 2019 LS vote share but that is mostly about BJP collecting anti-incumbency vote.

This makes sense. INC really needs Rahul Gandhi to step up then. Alternatively, is there any leader than Mamata Banerjee who could be viable alternative to Modi? Sharad Pawar? Amarinder Singh?

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So, how come the Left cadres in Bengal went over to the BJP? I know they are being targeted by TMC, but you'd think they would be opposed to BJP's Hindu-Hindi plank.

Admittedly, seems some workers being interviewed say they still have reservations about the BJP, and could switch back. I will believe it when I see it.

If you read

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/west-bengal-assembly-polls-2021/story/-aage-ram-pore-baam-former-leftists-form-bjp-s-backbone-in-bengal-2021-1789571-2021-04-11

it points it out what took place.  Aage Ram, Pore Baam = ('First Ram, then Left')  (the BJP rallying call in WB is "Jai Shri Ram" so Ram is codeword for BJP)

After 2011 when AITC came into power they went after the Left Front cadres just like Left Front cadres went after AITC party workers before 2011.  What some Left Front leaders did was to advise their cadres to join BJP on a temporary basis to avoid abuse from AITC.  In other cases Left Front cadres joined to BJP to defeat AITC and plan to go back to Left Front after AITC is defeated.

I think this destructive battle between AITC and Left Front will create what we Chinese call 弄假成真 (what started out as fake became real) (sorry but most complex abstract concepts I end up mapping into the large mental dictionary I have of Chinese sayings) and the Left Front cadre will join BJP and never come back, especially if BJP wins.  No one is going to give up their positions as part of the ruling infrastructure.  Ergo I call AITC the new INC and BJP, bizarrely, the new Left Front.  Most ironic of all is if the BJP wins I expect the Left Front to form an alliance with AITC to take on BJP after the election.

Yes, I read that. Like you, I also don't believe all these claims of temporarily supporting BJP, then coming back. That's why I am a bit skeptical about the ideological commitment of communist party cadres. It seems to me that they want to part of a successful political party, not toil without material rewards.

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The current COVID-19 surge emerged suddenly and now is getting so large that it might be the biggest challenge for Modi yet.  Even though it seems the government response is so far weak most likely it will not hurt Modi much.  As I mentioned before Modi being not married and having no children is seen as almost like a Hindu monk that is dedicated to the betterment of India.

Modi's look clearly tries to play into this narrative.

Modi before he become PM


Modi today


What a Hindu monk looks like


It is clear Modi's PR strategy is to make himself look beyond the material world and almost the same as a Hindu monk

Is it really so much his 'monkishness', or the image of a patriarchal father figure from the Indian epic, the Mahabharata? I feel like its more of the latter. That said, I get what you mean, he definitely has an emotional appeal amongst some people. Demonotisation didn't stick on him, and probably neither will Covid.

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There are reports that the Assam INC is also taking steps to 'protect' their candidates from BJP poaching, starting April 22. They will apparently be kept in different hotels based on their regional seats.

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There are reports that the Assam INC is also taking steps to 'protect' their candidates from BJP poaching, starting April 22. They will apparently be kept in different hotels based on their regional seats.

AIUDF candidates have been in Rajasthan for a week in a luxury resort with all expense paid for by INC and just came back due to COVID-19 surge.  I think the plan now is to put UPA candidates in various resorts in Assam with all their cell phones taken away from them I believe.

Cases are spiking in Assam too. It would be disastrous if candidates catch Covid because they were all in close contact with each other.

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https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/satta-bazar-bets-on-bjp-forming-the-next-govts-in-bengal-assam-puducherry/article34352362.ece

"Satta Bazar bets on BJP forming the next govts in Bengal, Assam & Puducherry"

Betting markets have BJP winning in Assam, WB and Puducherry and UPA winning in TN and LDF winning in Kerala

Even odds for seats in betting markets

WB: BJP 150 AITC 110
TN: UPA 160 NDA 60
Assam: NDA 71  (out of 126)
Kerala: LDF 75 UDF 55
Puducherry: NDA 17 (out of 30)

Is there any significance to predictions made by betting markets in India? Things like secret 'ground knowledge'?

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There are signs of a surge of infections in WB.  It seems that the WB election rallies, road shows, and campaigning which took place as the infections are rising are turning out to be super spreader events.   If so in WB there will be a huge surge in COVID-19 infections and death in the coming weeks.  I suspect May 2nd counting might go ultra slow as lockdowns by then might be necessary.

What is interesting is that there are not similar patterns in Assam Kerala or TN.  In think WB was in the wrong place and wrong time in terms of when its campaigning was really taking off.  The eight phased approach for WB it seems made the problem much worse as it pushed campaign season very long and overlapped with the this current wave.

They have restricted rallies and public campaigning in WB. Could it have any political effects?

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https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/satta-bazar-bets-on-bjp-forming-the-next-govts-in-bengal-assam-puducherry/article34352362.ece

"Satta Bazar bets on BJP forming the next govts in Bengal, Assam & Puducherry"

Betting markets have BJP winning in Assam, WB and Puducherry and UPA winning in TN and LDF winning in Kerala

Even odds for seats in betting markets

WB: BJP 150 AITC 110
TN: UPA 160 NDA 60
Assam: NDA 71  (out of 126)
Kerala: LDF 75 UDF 55
Puducherry: NDA 17 (out of 30)

Is there any significance to predictions made by betting markets in India? Things like secret 'ground knowledge'?

No, they are usually CW based projections.  They
a) always miss waves
b) always overestimate ruling party

with a) being stronger than b)

Unless there is a pro-incumbent wave, which to be fair one only knows about after the fact, I would shift a bunch of seats from the betting market projections from the ruling bloc to the main opposition bloc and hope that one does not miss a pro-incumbent wave, like 2019 LS elections.

My gut feeling is that their WB projection is wrong.   Since 1977 the closest election in terms of seats was 2001 when it was Left Front 199 AITC-INC 89.  I find it hard to believe that the BJP vs AITC seat count would be 150 to 110.  I am pretty sure the winning party would be at least 180 seats which all things equal is more likely to be BJP than AITC.

What are the signs that BJP is doing better than TMC in WB?

Is a hung assembly possible in Kerela?

I think Assam is lean UPA at this stage. TN and Puducherry seem straightforward wins for UPA and NDA respectively.

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https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/protesting-farmers-reject-allegations-they-are-blocking-oxygen-transport-to-delhi/articleshow/82177878.cms

"Protesting farmers reject allegations they are blocking oxygen transport to Delhi"

Despite the COVID-19 surge in Delhi the famer protest if anything have doubled down on their protests.  They claim that the BJP is using the COVID-19 as an excuse to end the farmer protests.  It seems the farmer protest groups plan an even larger level of protests to "surround" New Delhi.

Any thoughts on the endgame for the farmer's protest? I had almost forgotten about them due to the elections, and now Covid.

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https://twitter.com/Morewithshashi

This independent pollster has revealed exit poll data for some WB districts ahead of the exit poll on the 29th. He has a good track record, but he got the 2019 LS election in WB quite wrong.

I made a rough calculation of the seats from districts released so far:

TMC - 98
BJP - 43
INC - 1
TMC Leaning - 18
BJP Leaning - 11
Close Contest - 17

That's 188 of 223 seats contested so far. He also made this tweet:

Initial Ground Report by Ground Zero Research after Sixth Phase of Elections- Game is over in Bengal.

Exit Poll on 29th April.....

Seems to suggest that TMC Has won. Assuming BJP wins all the BJP leaning seats, as well as the 'close contests, their seats will be 71/223 so far. The BJP need another 77 seats for a majority out of a remaining 71.

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Actually, just realised it would be 71/188 if the BJP wins all BJP leaning seats and close contests. They still have a chance for a majority (if this pollster is correct), but they would need 77 seats out of the remaining 71 seats + the 35 unreleased seats from phase I to VI.

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https://twitter.com/Morewithshashi

This independent pollster has revealed exit poll data for some WB districts ahead of the exit poll on the 29th. He has a good track record, but he got the 2019 LS election in WB quite wrong.

I made a rough calculation of the seats from districts released so far:

TMC - 98
BJP - 43
INC - 1
TMC Leaning - 18
BJP Leaning - 11
Close Contest - 17

That's 188 of 223 seats contested so far. He also made this tweet:

Initial Ground Report by Ground Zero Research after Sixth Phase of Elections- Game is over in Bengal.

Exit Poll on 29th April.....

Seems to suggest that TMC Has won. Assuming BJP wins all the BJP leaning seats, as well as the 'close contests, their seats will be 71/223 so far. The BJP need another 77 seats for a majority out of a remaining 71.

The same pollster Ground Zero also had a pre-election poll with UPA with a slight lead over NDA.

I guess I would think that most of the contest and some of the lean AITC would go BJP on the premise that the ruling party are going to be overestimated.

Do you mean the 2019 LS election?

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https://twitter.com/Morewithshashi

This independent pollster has revealed exit poll data for some WB districts ahead of the exit poll on the 29th. He has a good track record, but he got the 2019 LS election in WB quite wrong.

I made a rough calculation of the seats from districts released so far:

TMC - 98
BJP - 43
INC - 1
TMC Leaning - 18
BJP Leaning - 11
Close Contest - 17

That's 188 of 223 seats contested so far. He also made this tweet:

Initial Ground Report by Ground Zero Research after Sixth Phase of Elections- Game is over in Bengal.

Exit Poll on 29th April.....

Seems to suggest that TMC Has won. Assuming BJP wins all the BJP leaning seats, as well as the 'close contests, their seats will be 71/223 so far. The BJP need another 77 seats for a majority out of a remaining 71.

The same pollster Ground Zero also had a pre-election poll with UPA with a slight lead over NDA.

I guess I would think that most of the contest and some of the lean AITC would go BJP on the premise that the ruling party are going to be overestimated.

Do you mean the 2019 LS election?

That ended up being a pro-incumbent wave.  I agree the rule of thumb of pre-election polls overestimating the ruling party does not hold in a pro-incumbent wave which we only know after the fact.  Usually a pro-incumbent wave is built around a strong personality incumbent like Indira Gandhi in 1971 and Modi in 2019.  I agree this is possible in WB with AITC CM Mamata Banerjee.  We will know May 2nd.

Ground Zero is doubling down, saying TMC will win 40+ seats in the next two phases, while BJP will win less than 20.

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I wonder if the BJP will lose lots of votes as a result of Modi's total mishandling of the Covid pandemic?

The wave started too late to affect Assam and the southern states. It might play a role in the last three phases of the WB election. On the other hand, pro-BJP voters could blame the state government.

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Ground Zero is doubling down, saying TMC will win 40+ seats in the next two phases, while BJP will win less than 20.

At a certain level I agree with them in the sense that historical trends show the winning party/front should win a decisive victory which is to say that WB tend so swing uniformly like TN.  So I expect the winning party, be it AITC or BJP, to win at least 170 seats or so.  So Ground Zero is really saying that it is AITC that will win at least 170 seats while other, including myself, tends to believe that BJP is the more likely party to win 170+ seats on the premise that pre-election polls tends to overestimate the ruling party.

To hedge myself for me to believe this does throw out other trends, namely that the BJP tends to underperform LS election results at the state assembly level.  BJP+ won 40.64% in the 2019 LS election in WB and one would expect them to underperform this level in the WB assembly elections.  A similar logic was true for the INC in the 1980s.  The last mega pro-incumbent wave at the LS level was INC in 1984.  INC won 48.16% of the vote 1984 WB but fell to 41.81% in the 1987 WB assembly elections.  So one would expect the BJP baseline in 2021 WB assembly to be around 35%.  For the BJP to win decisively they will have to be at around 45%.  So anti-incumbency PLUS Left Front anti-AITC tactical voting would have to create this 10% gap.  I can see why many pollsters would doubt this from their data.  I just happen to believe that this is possible if the BJP is already polling at 38%-42% in pre-election polling.  

Ground Zero is tripling down now.

https://twitter.com/Morewithshashi/status/1386686197968166915



Ignores Sheila Diskhit, which has been pointed out.

I now wonder whether Ground Zero has an anti-BJP lean? Or is he so confident of the result that he is trying to distinguish himself with bold statements? This has the potential to backfire.

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Ground Zero is doubling down, saying TMC will win 40+ seats in the next two phases, while BJP will win less than 20.

At a certain level I agree with them in the sense that historical trends show the winning party/front should win a decisive victory which is to say that WB tend so swing uniformly like TN.  So I expect the winning party, be it AITC or BJP, to win at least 170 seats or so.  So Ground Zero is really saying that it is AITC that will win at least 170 seats while other, including myself, tends to believe that BJP is the more likely party to win 170+ seats on the premise that pre-election polls tends to overestimate the ruling party.

To hedge myself for me to believe this does throw out other trends, namely that the BJP tends to underperform LS election results at the state assembly level.  BJP+ won 40.64% in the 2019 LS election in WB and one would expect them to underperform this level in the WB assembly elections.  A similar logic was true for the INC in the 1980s.  The last mega pro-incumbent wave at the LS level was INC in 1984.  INC won 48.16% of the vote 1984 WB but fell to 41.81% in the 1987 WB assembly elections.  So one would expect the BJP baseline in 2021 WB assembly to be around 35%.  For the BJP to win decisively they will have to be at around 45%.  So anti-incumbency PLUS Left Front anti-AITC tactical voting would have to create this 10% gap.  I can see why many pollsters would doubt this from their data.  I just happen to believe that this is possible if the BJP is already polling at 38%-42% in pre-election polling.  

Ground Zero is tripling down now.

https://twitter.com/Morewithshashi/status/1386686197968166915



Ignores Sheila Diskhit, which has been pointed out.

I now wonder whether Ground Zero has an anti-BJP lean? Or is he so confident of the result that he is trying to distinguish himself with bold statements? This has the potential to backfire.

I think they are wise to make this bet.  I think the result will either be a decisive victory for BJP or a decisive victory for AITC.  If Ground Zero polling show a narrow AITC lead I would come out with a projection of a decisive AITC victory.  Since WB has a tendency to have decisive victory and Ground Zero has AITC ahead they might as well predict a deceive AITC victory.  If the BJP wins they are going to look bad anyway.  If AITC wins by a large margin they will look very good.

Isn't that a bit non-scientific? I would have assumed pollsters would publish the data as it is, subject to corrections for sampling bias etc.

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Parakala Prabhakar, the husband of India's Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharam, came out very strongly against Prime Minister Narendra Modi's management of the Covid pandemic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vu2ryLPOME4

At first, I thought they might have been separated, but they are still together. Prabhakar was a leading member of the Andra Pradesh BJP, but he seems to be an independent policy analyst these days. Even still, it's surprising to see him criticising Modi.

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I think they are wise to make this bet.  I think the result will either be a decisive victory for BJP or a decisive victory for AITC.  If Ground Zero polling show a narrow AITC lead I would come out with a projection of a decisive AITC victory.  Since WB has a tendency to have decisive victory and Ground Zero has AITC ahead they might as well predict a deceive AITC victory.  If the BJP wins they are going to look bad anyway.  If AITC wins by a large margin they will look very good.

Isn't that a bit non-scientific? I would have assumed pollsters would publish the data as it is, subject to corrections for sampling bias etc.

I am just guessing at what is going on.  I am assuming that Ground Zero has to weight the raw data they get.  I am saying if that is the case I can see them taking a call that a more pro-AITC weight in terms of turnout patterns more fit the narrative of a decisive victory.  All speculation of course.  And to be fair they might be right.  Axis My India which has been pretty accurate last few cycles always comes out as the outlier project that has a decisive result and are usually accurate when compared to other pollsters that tend to herd.

It would be fascinating to see them publish their methodology.

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https://twitter.com/Morewithshashi/with_replies

Big Prediction: There is a high probability that the #BJP is likely to win more than 100 seats.

Seems like Ground Zero is angling for TMC 160-170+, BJP 100+ and INC/LEFT 20(?).

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Axis My India exit polls.  Other than Bihar assembly elections in 2020 they are pretty much been the most accurate exit pollster since 2015 they then famously got the Grand Alliance winning by a landslide over NDA in Bihar.  I think what make them accurate is they are not afraid to take outlying positions and do not herd.

INC+Left 0-2 in WB is incredible. Have to see if it comes true.

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C voter Assam exit poll

BJP+ 58-71
CONG+ 53-66

But has UPA vote share well ahead

Is the vote to seat discrepancy to be explained by UPA running up margins in Lower Assam? 6% seems rather too large for it not to be a UPA win.

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Assam's largest newspaper, Pratidin, came out with an exit poll and seatwise breakdowns.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2yW52qOUTuA

https://www.pratidintime.com/exit-polls-predict-bjp-led-alliance-likely-to-retain-assam/

NDA 67±5
UPA 59±5
OTH  3±1

However, their seatwise breakdown is apparently more cautious. By my count,

NDA 49, UPA 55, and 21(22?) close contests that could go either way. It seems they project most close contests breaking in favour of NDA.

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https://fb.watch/5b_1Y-HKYD/

D News (Assamese channel) seatwise projections for Assam

By my count, 61 for NDA, 62 for UPA, and 3 for AJP/RJ