India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[eos]

Indian movie star Kangana Ranaut, infamous for her provocative support of BJP and Narendra Modi on twitter, had her account suspended. Ranaut made this tweet in reaction to post-election violence in WB, with TMC cadres allegedly persecuting BJP cadres.

"this is horrible...we need super gundai [thuggery] to kill gundai..she [Mamata Banerjee] is like an unleashed monster, to tame her Modi Ji please show your Virat roop [masterly form] from early 2000's...#PresidentRuleinBengal

Many people think Ranaut is probably alluding to allegations of Modi's complicity in the pogrom against Muslims in Gujarat in 2002. Although Ranaut enjoyed the support of Hindi nationalists on social media, many are now upset with her for alluding to Modi's alleged role as a fact.

[eos]

UP Zila Panchyat counting continues.  Now there are trends from all seats.  SP overtakes BJP by a good margin.  It is claimed at a bunch of the Others are pro-INC independents (on the order of ~100).  If so SP and INC outperformed while BJP and BSP underperformed.  

Quite surprised with this result. Do you think the pandemic played a role?

[eos]

In Assam the results went mostly as expected with NDA outperforming in marginal seat due to Hindi consolidation.  The big miss from my point of view was in Bodoland where I expected BPF to sweep and instead UPPL-BJP holding the upper hand.

Before the election in Assam I expected NDA to win for sure at least 51 seats (BJP 44 AGP 7) while I expected UPA to win at least 46 seats (INC 25 AIUDF 14 BPF 7).   I had 29 seats where I can see them going either way but I expected UPA to win more of them due to anti-incumbency giving UPA a narrow win.

The result of my project were:

BJP 44 -> BJP won all 44
AGP 7 -> AGP won all 7
INC 25 -> INC won 22 AIUDF won 2 BJP won 1 -> I got two heavy Muslim INC vs AIUDF seats wrong but from an UPA point of view it did not matter, I missed 1 INC seat due to it seems, an unusually weak INC candidate
AIUDF 14 -> AIUDF won all 14
BPF 7 -> BPF won 4 and UPPL won 3 -> I got Bodoland wrong

Tossup 29 -> BJP won 15, AGP won 2, UPPL won 3, INC won 7, CPM 1, RD 1 -> NDA won most of the Tossups due to Hindu consolidation

But the big miss for me was messing up Bodoland.  It seems that a good part of the Bodo vote along with non-Bodo Hindu's consolidated around NDA in reaction to BPF-AIUDF alliance.

2016 Bodoland results

                Contest   Won     Vote share
BPF              12         12         40.36%  (backed by BJP and tactically AGP)

AGP               1           0          1.60%

AGP rebel      1            0          2.34%

BPF rebel       2            0          2.21%

INC               8            0        10.53% (tactical alliance with UPPL)

UPPL           11            0        17.24%

AIUDF           7            0        11.67%
 
PCDR            2            0          2.80% (proto SGS) (non-Bodo Hindus)

SJAM            2            0          2.75% (proto SGS) (non-Bodo Hindus)


2021 Bodoland results

                Contest   Won     Vote share
BJP               4           2        12.37% (tactical alliance with UPPL)

UPPL            11          6       38.32% (tactical alliance with BJP)

SGS               1          0         1.52% (backed NDA in other seats)

BPF             12          4        38.28%  (backed by INC and AIUDF)

AIUDF rebel   1          0          0.54%

AJP               2          0          0.76% (tactical alliance with RD)

RD                2          0         1.38% (tactical alliance with AJP)

Going seat by seats it seems clear that the AIUDF and INC successfully shifted most of their Muslim base to BPF but in reaction part of the BPF Bodo base shifted to UPPL-BJP and the non-Bodo Hindu vote consolidated around UPPL-BJP.  The scale of the UPPL-BJP victory could have  been even greater had the UPPl-BJP alliance was an complete one versus a tactical one.

Which one seat you had INC winning that BJP ended up winning?

I think INC should have also won the following seats:

Upper/North Assam: Lakhimpur, Teok, Amguri
Central Assam: Barhampur
Barak Valley: Patharkandi

[eos]

In Assam, INC state president and RS MP Ripun Bora ended up losing by 29000 votes in Gohpur, in central Assam. He claimed responsibility for the UPA's defeat and tendered his resignation to Sonia Gandhi. Bora played a major role in organising the alliance with the AIUDF despite misgivings of some other top INC leaders.

INC's leader in the Assam assembly, Debabrata Saikia, narrowly retained his family bastion of Nazira in Upper Assam by less than 1000 votes. The seat has been held almost continuously by the Saikia family since 1967, with Debrabrata Saikia's father, Hiteshwar Saikia, twice serving as CM of Assam. Debabrata Saikia's position as leader of the opposition is under threat.

The leading contenders for new Assam president seem to be LS MP's Gaurav Gogoi, and Pradyut Bordoloi. The leader of the opposition has to be from the assembly though. Gogoi is in pole position. Despite the pro-BJP trend in Upper Assam, the INC registered its strongest regional performance in Titabor, represented by his late father and former CM Tarun Gogoi. The INC candidate was a non-entity, but the party held on to its support from 2016. Some people say INC would have done much better in Upper Assam if Gogoi had been projected as UPA's CM candidate.

[eos]

Which one seat you had INC winning that BJP ended up winning?

I think INC should have also won the following seats:

Upper/North Assam: Lakhimpur, Teok, Amguri
Central Assam: Barhampur
Barak Valley: Patharkandi

The seat I thought the INC was going to win for sure but the BJP won instead was Patharkandi.

I can see why you thought INC was going to win Lakhimpur given the AGP incumbent and the BJP was in a friendly fight but I had it as a tossup since it was not clear how much BJP-AGP tactical voting will take place.  

As for Teok and Amguri I assumed you thought AGP will underperform.  I was not as such are about how big that would be ergo I had them as tossups.  Barhampur I assume it was about the Prafulla Mahanta factor.  But with Prafulla Mahanta not actively helping INC I was not sure that the INC would win.

The INC candidate in Barhampur had a very good performance against Mahanta in 2016. I thought he should have been favoured in the absence of Mahanta himself. I think he would have pulled it off if not for AJP.

Amguri is a swing seat that has gone AGP (1985) to INC (1991) to AGP (1996) to INC (2001) to AGP (2006) to INC (2011) to AGP (2016). The INC candidate in 2021 lost very narrowly in 2016, being the daughter of the former INC MLA here, Anjun Data, who was also state INC president before his death. I thought she should have been favoured because it was INC's turn again, but I underestimated the pro-NDA sentiment this time. I think she would have won, or lost very narrowly if not for the AJP.

I had INC winning Teok because I grouped it together with seats like Titabor, Mariani, Amguri, and Nazira, all of which seemed good for the INC at one time. To be fair, the INC candidate lost very narrowly (1400 votes). The RD candidate took away nearly 6000 votes, which I think would have mostly gone INC.

I had INC winning Lakhimpur because the 2021 candidate came very close in 2016 despite an INC rebel. I thought with the situation reversed, INC should have been strongly favoured.

[eos]

https://www.thehindu.com/elections/assam-assembly/assam-govt-formation-sonowal-himanta-rush-to-delhi/article34510108.ece

"Assam govt. formation: Sonowal, Himanta rush to Delhi"

5 days after the election, still no decision on Assam CM.  Both Assam BJP CM Sonowal and Himanta, the top candidates, are going to Delhi to have more meetings with BJP high command to work out a deal.  I guess this means the MLAs associated with both factions are insisting on their candidate so now a compromise has to be worked out.

Should the BJP give in to Himanta? I think he and his supporters have the greater potential to cause trouble if left dissatisfied.

[eos]

CSDS post-election survey on Assam

Clear signs of Hindu and Muslim consolidation.  Bengali polarization by religion greater than Assamese
AGP has some residual support with Assamese Muslims and it is show up here in this poll.  The AGP alliance did pay off for BJP in terms of getting those Assamese Muslim votes for NDA.  AJP-RD clearly ate into the pro-UPA Assamese Hindu vote.

AJP/RD definitely cost the INC.

I think Assamese speaking Muslims lack a pan-Islamic identity. This is partly cultural, and partly also political in that they want others to distinguish between Bengali Muslims and themselves. In recent years, Himanta has played up this division, mostly reserving his provocative statements on "Miya" or Bengali Muslims. This creates the perception that the Assam BJP is not necessarily against "indigenous" Assamese speaking Muslims.

[eos]

Looks like Himanta Biswa Sarma will become CM of Assam.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/assam-cm-sarbananda-sonowal-submits-his-resignation-1800451-2021-05-09

[eos]

25 arrested in Delhi for posters criticising Modi on the government's handling of the pandemic.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Delhi/many-held-over-posters-questioning-pm-modi/article34564288.ece

https://www.ndtv.com/delhi-news/12-arrested-over-posters-against-pm-modi-in-delhi-sources-2442279

[eos]

The government is cracking down on social media

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/india-twitter-ban-whatsapp-instagram-b1853613.html

There are also some reports that the BJP leadership is worried about the fallout of the pandemic in the coming polls.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/coronavirus-prime-minister-narendra-modi-at-bjp-rss-meet-to-discuss-covid-fallout-on-image-polls-sources-2448145

[eos]

If the general election for the Lok Sabha was held today, how would it go?

There are some signs of trouble for the NDA, but the opposition is in no position to form a government. I think the NDA will probably have enough seats for a majority, and failing that, they will have enough seats to rope in a few regional parties to form the government.

[eos]

https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/up-front/story/20210531-congress-the-imminent-return-of-rahul-1805676-2021-05-22

"Congress: The imminent return of Rahul"

INC indicates the long awaited election for INC Prez will take place June 23rd which means that Rahul Gandhi is ready to come back as INC Prez.  I guess even though the assembly election was a flop for INC the Gandhi clan is able to still consolidate their control of INC due to the impact of Modi's falling popularity as a result of the COVID-19 surge.  It seems the anti-Gandhi bloc in the INC have accepted the return of Rahul Gandhi and are now only fighting to a larger say for them in deciding making once Rahul Gandhi comes back.

INC's factional troubles will continue to cost them. There are now reports of a conflict in the Punjab INC between the CM Amarinder Singh, and popular leader Navjhot Singh Sidhu.

[eos]

https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/up-front/story/20210531-congress-the-imminent-return-of-rahul-1805676-2021-05-22

"Congress: The imminent return of Rahul"

INC indicates the long awaited election for INC Prez will take place June 23rd which means that Rahul Gandhi is ready to come back as INC Prez.  I guess even though the assembly election was a flop for INC the Gandhi clan is able to still consolidate their control of INC due to the impact of Modi's falling popularity as a result of the COVID-19 surge.  It seems the anti-Gandhi bloc in the INC have accepted the return of Rahul Gandhi and are now only fighting to a larger say for them in deciding making once Rahul Gandhi comes back.

INC's factional troubles will continue to cost them. There are now reports of a conflict in the Punjab INC between the CM Amarinder Singh, and popular leader Navjhot Singh Sidhu.

It seems INC is also having rebellion issues in Chhattisgarh (TS Singh Deo) and Rajasthan (Sachin Pilot.)  The core issue is still INC High Command culture where an INC faction has to convince the Gandhi's that they might bolt for the Gandhi clan to shower them with "candies" and a share of power at the expense of the ruling CM.  Of course that creates problems with INC High Command and the local INC CM.  Of often the best way for the INC to operate is to be in the opposition but that just mean they die a slow death of political talent going over to the BJP over time.

There is still 2 years until the Chattisgarh and Rajasthan elections. However, Punjab is going to elections next year. INC have less than a year to solve the issues in Punjab.

Congress MLA and ally of Navjhot Singh Siddhu openly questioning the CM Amarinder Singh.

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2021/may/24/party-might-suffer-if-2022-punjab-polls-are-fought-under-leadership-of-amarinder-singh-congress-mla-2307036.html

[eos]

Ahead of the 2022 UP elections, INC leader Jitin Prasada joins BJP.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/congress-leader-jitin-prasada-to-join-bjp-today-sources-2459751

[eos]

Congress MLA from Assam, Rupjyoti Kurmi, joins BJP. He was from the Tea tribe community, and his seat, Mariani, was one of Congress' last strongholds among that community.

Kurmi's defection to the BJP was followed by that of Jury Sharma Bordoloi, the president of the Guwahati city District Congress Committee.

[eos]

https://twitter.com/PTI_News/status/1406930350014484480

Uttar Pradesh's next chief minister will be finalised by the BJP's central leadership after the state assembly elections next year, says senior party leader and UP minister Swami Prasad Maurya

Modi/Shah vs Yogi? Things might get interesting soon.

[eos]

C-Voter Opinion Poll on UP(Seats & Vote Share)

BJP+ : 259-267 (42%)
SP+ :  109-117 (30%)
BSP :  12-16 (16%)
INC : 3-7 (5%)
OTH : 6-10 (7%)

What's the game-plan for SP? Do they think they can beat NDA on their own?

[eos]

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/amarinder-singh-decides-to-quit-as-punjab-cm-1031751.html

'Amarinder Singh decides to quit as Punjab CM'

The INC is going to have a meltdown in the 2022 Punjab assembly elections.  Most likely AAP will be the main beneficiary.   2022 most likely will see a second AAP CM in addition to Delhi.

INC looked headed for defeat anyway. I guess they decided they had nothing to lose by going for a radical change.

[eos]

It seems so.  They gamble is that the anti-BJP vote will consolidate around SP.  I think SP also thinks it is possible an alliance with the Bhim Army based ASP can claw a bunch of Dalit votes.   This is riskly.  I suspect the Jatav Dalit vote will still go with BSP which would mean SP would come close but would not defeat BJP.

I see. Come to think of it, I now remember that their solo win in 2012 came as a major surprise. Everyone expected a hung assembly and maybe a SP-INC coalition.

[eos]

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/north-and-central/rahul-priyanka-inexperienced-will-field-candidate-against-sidhu-in-assembly-polls-amarinder-1033174.html

"Rahul, Priyanka inexperienced; will field candidate against Sidhu in Assembly polls: Amarinder"

Signs that former Punjab INC CM Amarinder Singh might split the INC in Punjab.  He is threatening to run a candidate against Punjab INC Prez Sidhu which  he see as the person being him being ousted.
 

Navjhot Singh Sidhu has just resigned. INC is apparently asking him to reconsider.

[eos]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/navjot-sidhu-to-stay-agreement-with-chief-minister-on-sticking-points-2559843

Sidhu will stay on as INC Punjab chief after meeting with the CM Charanjit Singh Channi.

[eos]

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/north-and-central/rahul-priyanka-inexperienced-will-field-candidate-against-sidhu-in-assembly-polls-amarinder-1033174.html

"Rahul, Priyanka inexperienced; will field candidate against Sidhu in Assembly polls: Amarinder"

Signs that former Punjab INC CM Amarinder Singh might split the INC in Punjab.  He is threatening to run a candidate against Punjab INC Prez Sidhu which  he see as the person being him being ousted.
 

Navjhot Singh Sidhu has just resigned. INC is apparently asking him to reconsider.

Yeah.  The whole point of Sidhu joining INC from BJP was to become CM.  After his maneuver to oust Amarinder Singh failed to achieve that goal I guess he is going to start from scratch.  Main problem for him is I d not see why any other party will take him.  There are rumors that Amarinder Singh might join BJP.

I think the BJP brand is too toxic in Punjab. He made the wise choice not to affiliate himself with them.

[eos]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8qAVTnSSVA

Opinion poll for Punjab published 16 October predicting a huge majority for INC. Complete outlier, and I don't know what to make of it really. Suppose Amarinder Singh's party is cutting into the anti-INC vote more so than taking it from them?