POLL: Sinema's fate in 2024

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

She’s not going to win a primary. Incumbents are hard to primary because even the most conservative in incumbent typically has close working relationships with state level politicians that they don’t want to throw away. Kyrsten Sinema makes a point of scorning the AZ Democratic Party, she won’t even endorse, much less help, in Arizona races, she won’t even return calls from liberal political groups in AZ (the chief of the Tucson AFL-CIO says she’s got Kelly on speed dial and can’t even reach Sinema’s office, staffers speaking on background say that Sinema doesn’t see Democrats as her voters), and she even does fundraisers for dark money GOP groups. Why the hell would they lift a finger to help her?

On the national level, she only ever seems to be interested in working with Republicans. Just a quick googling shows plenty of jointly presented bills and pressers with Romney and Cornyn and so on, but basically nothing with other Dems, even Manchin, and again, she does fundraisers for dark money groups that are trying to get them defeated, and she seems to revel in making them look like idiots. I can’t imagine they are going to spend a dime that could go to Baldwin, Brown, Tester, or even freaking Joe Manchin to save a power drunk girl boss ditz that keeps knifing them every time they turn around. Meanwhile, publicly making herself the face of conservadem wankery has ensured her primary opponent will be the beneficiary of the sort of online money bombs Dems running against particularly odious Republicans get and she’ll probably have allot of trouble duping low-info college kids into volunteering for her because she’s a youngish bi girl now that her conservatism is common knowledge.

TL;dr: Krysten Sinema is the Tulsi Gabbard of Joe Liebermans and the only question I have is whether she exits gracefully or runs a suicide Indy campaign out of spite


PS, Joe Manchin’s announcement today absolutely sunk any chance she had to salvage her career. Even if she still would be hated by her colleagues, an HR1 face turn would probably have solved any primary issues. Silver linings I guess

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I think she'll be renominated and re-elected just by virtue of trends in the state and how awful most potential Arizona GOP nominees are, and it will send a bad message about what blocking progress means for one's political prospects in the Senate, even if that correlation isn't necessarily the causation that led to her re-election.

This assumes that her and Manchin's inaction on ending the filibuster doesn't result in major Republican controlled battleground states passing legislation that allows them to overturn election results. That would be one hell of a backfire and "I told you so" moment for her and Manchin. I get their concern that the lack of a filibuster can lead to a future Republican majority abusing its absence to pass reactionary bills, but but while Democrats have a trifecta acting on addressing our democratic backslide proactively is necessary to balance out what the GOP can and will do in the near future. Our democracy is at the precipice of collapse, and legislation like HR1 passing and statehood for DC and Puerto Rico can go a long way in making a future GOP Senate takeover less of a scary prospect.

Sorry I couldn't help but go off. Manchin or Sinema being mentioned in any thread now yields a Pavlovian response from me to go on a tirade about the filibuster.

She hovers between 50-55% in Dem approval. Which while positive is strait up awful for a same-party incumbent. Kelly sits about 80% for reference.
Once she has an actual Democrat to be contrasted to and we get regular showings of her curtesy middle finger to her voters and her joint press junkets with far right Republicans in Arizona tv, I doubt she’ll be above water.
I concede the national party could save her by trying to Bigfoot out any serious challenger, but why bother protecting the least cooperative member of the caucus whose made it clear she wouldn’t piss on another Dem if they were on fire.