Chief Pollster of Trafalgar Predicts Trump Wins the Election

[S019ian Liberal]

For the love of all that is holy, there are no shy Trump voters. They're a myth. I mean, seriously: silent Trump supporters? You think the fascists, Nazis, neo-Confederates, bigots, religious lunatics, Klansmen, &/or enablers of all the aforementioned demographics are gonna be silent about that sh*t? Give me a break.

Get real: Trump won in 2016 on the basis of voter apathy & undecideds hating him less than they hated Hillary. That's it. And in case anybody may have forgotten, here's your reminder that neither of those factors are at play this year. Game over.

He didn't win because of any of them lol.

There aren't 63 million of those scattered around the USA. He won because of reluctant ancestral Republicans "coming home."

[S019ian Liberal]

Somebody said in another thread that there aren't really "shy" Trump voters so much as there are Trump voters who hang up on pollsters because Trump told them they are liars and crooked just like the MSM.

And working for a polling firm, I can confirm this. I'll normally call somebody and ask them if they'd like to participate in a poll about issues in their state/district, and what I find is that the majority of people who support Democrats are very open about sharing information and complete the poll.

On the other hand, I can immediately sense the Trump supporters because as soon as I ask something about participating in a poll they say things like "who's paying for this?" or "who are you affiliated with?". I've had a few say things like "this sounds like fake news" with some assorted cursing, and then they hang up on me. I've heard a LOT of this.

In other words, that social trust gap I've heard about as a theory of why Trump supporters are often hidden....there's probably something to that. They clearly dislike participating in polls. Just fair warning.

He's basically banking on what you say to be right, and a big enough factor to swing the race at least ~5% points or so, up until this point.

[S019ian Liberal]

I just don't see the "social desirability" theory playing out, because what Trump supporters are shy or secretive about admitting they like Trump? They tend to be loud and proud and under the impression that everyone else is too.

Not true, for

[S019ian Liberal]

Let's not overlook the possibility that they could herd their polling next week to make themselves look right and save themselves from ruining their reputation for future clients.

don't think it's gonna happen, they're too invested in this own theory by now, but cool idea at this point imo honestly.

[S019ian Liberal]

The overwhelming majority of people predict what they want to see happen. News at 11.

Doesn't that call all of Atlas's confidence into question?

(Also a bit off topic I just checked your prediction, GA flipping before NC is an interesting take)

No, as correlation implies not causation. We have the emperical facts and data on our side, the crazy deluded Repubs don't.

Which is NOT me giving Atlas credit -- maybe if all indications pointed to a Trump victory, the consensus in this community would *still* run around suggesting he'll lose.

But the difference is, that's a hypothetical whereas the situation confronting us is very real (and immediate).