IA-Selzer: Trump +7

[BudgieForce]

I feel sick.
It's happening again.

That's it. I'm out of here.

See you all on Wednesday

Yeah, I might join you.

[BudgieForce]

Just putting this out there....

Selzer doesnt weigh by education.

[BudgieForce]

Also an interesting note. In 2016, Obama wanted to campaign in Iowa but Hillary's team told him no because Iowa was gone. But Biden was just in Iowa this week. Biden's internal numbers must be much better than this.

[BudgieForce]

Do i have to keep spamming small sample size for the districts, therefore high MOE. Junk the district polls from Selzer. Iowa 2nd and Iowa 1st should basically have the same margin.

MOE is +/- 7, meaning that the district instead of being +15 is still R+8.

That would knock this poll down, maybe 2 percent to R+5 in Iowa.

Even Trump up +5 would be easier to swallow.

[BudgieForce]

Acknowledging small sample sizes, my experience with phonebanking/canvassing tells me that "don't wanna tell you my vote" probably tilts towards older voters. I also suspect Trump has more support in that group than Biden.

Oddly, the only age group Biden is winning in this poll is 65+.

[BudgieForce]

Woof!

https://twitter.com/RABAresearch/status/1322695513746165760

Shot fired  

[BudgieForce]

Oct 26-29
814 likely voters
MoE: 3.4%
Changes with Sep 14-17

Trump 48% (+1)
Biden 41% (-6)
Don't want to tell 5% (not previously included)
Someone else 3% (-1)
Would not vote 0% (n/c from 0% at no votes)
Not sure 2% (-1)

That "Don't want to tell" has taken a whole 5% of the sample. Probably not shy Biden voters, but interesting.

Biden losing 6%, 5% choosing newly included "Don't want to tell", and Trump gaining only 1% implies that "Don't want to tell" are former Biden supporters?

The only thing that makes sense to me that could have actually influenced a significant number of Biden supporters becoming "shy Trump" voters is...I don't know. Trump has awful favorable numbers on everything. He's even underwater in some polls on handling of the economy at this point, which has always been his strength.

Or it could just be Biden supporters who dont want to reveal who they've voted for. Its a weird reservation quite a few people seem to have. I once got sent to the principles office for asking my 5th grade teacher who she voted for. She got so upset and told me its incredibly rude to ask.

[BudgieForce]

Is it true that Selzer changed methodology since their last poll? That seems kind of ...important.

They do have a new option for respondents to pick - "prefer not to answer" - that has gotten 5% in the presidential race and 4% in the Senate race.

As with Marist, weighting by education is not the be-all-and-end-all.

Granted, Marist and Selzer both had misses in 2018.

[BudgieForce]

So, what ABC/WaPo polls get released tonight?  National?  State?

It's got to be national. We're almost 3 days away from the election and we've gotten almost no national numbers from the major pollsters.

[BudgieForce]

Oct 26-29
814 likely voters
MoE: 3.4%
Changes with Sep 14-17

Trump 48% (+1)
Biden 41% (-6)
Don't want to tell 5% (not previously included)
Someone else 3% (-1)
Would not vote 0% (n/c from 0% at no votes)
Not sure 2% (-1)

That "Don't want to tell" has taken a whole 5% of the sample. Probably not shy Biden voters, but interesting.

Biden losing 6%, 5% choosing newly included "Don't want to tell", and Trump gaining only 1% implies that "Don't want to tell" are former Biden supporters?

The only thing that makes sense to me that could have actually influenced a significant number of Biden supporters becoming "shy Trump" voters is...I don't know. Trump has awful favorable numbers on everything. He's even underwater in some polls on handling of the economy at this point, which has always been his strength.

Or it could just be Biden supporters who dont want to reveal who they've voted for. Its a weird reservation quite a few people seem to have. I once got sent to the principles office for asking my 5th grade teacher who she voted for. She got so upset and told me its incredibly rude to ask.

The “Don’t Want to Tell” option is only available to folks who have already voted. It also almost exactly the same as what Biden and Greenfield lost. I’m not sure why you add that option if he want a clear response.

That seems quite short sighted on Selzer's part. If polls are right and the vast majority of early voters support Biden, it stands to reason Biden's topline took the biggest hit from that option.

And honestly, if this poll was Trump +4, there would not be the same level of hysterics right now.