2020 Poll Hype Thread

[BudgieForce]

What the heck is going on in that Arizona sample?

[BudgieForce]

Rasmussen tried to crowd fund a bunch of states polls in 2018 I think. I dont believe they were very successful though. Probably less to do with the concept of crowdfunding and more to do with Rasmussen's reputation, especially with poll watchers.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/JustinGrayWSB/status/1319708677851545600

Wouldnt be surprised if it has Trump up +7 again, or if Biden is up mid single digits.

[BudgieForce]

Rassy +1 head to head, NPV (48%-47%)

Rassy +6 approvals (52%-46%)

Along with Rassy polling good battle ground states.

Walls are closing in, Dems.

I'm not judging, but putting all your faith in partisan polling firms with bad track records seems like a recipe for disappointment.

[BudgieForce]

Selzer is the last big poll I'm interested in. Probably the last data point that will shape many of our predictions.

Why is everyone so obsessed with this Selzer poll?

The Selzer poll right before the 2016 election showed Trump leading by 7 and foretold his massive surge with WWC voters in the Midwest.

Isn't Selzer literally just IA?

I think Selzer also polls for Grinnell College which does the occasional national poll.

[BudgieForce]

Remember, we're getting the Selzer senate numbers at 7pm. We get the horse race at 7:30pm.

[BudgieForce]

So the Selzer Senate numbers were...not great. Any chance Biden is outpolling Greenfield here?

Hopefully. I imagine their wont be as many "undecideds" and "refused to say".

[BudgieForce]

Anybody adjusting their predictions after the senate poll release?

We're getting a presidential poll in 20 minutes so i'd wait to adjust.

[BudgieForce]

That Selzer poll gave me such a fright. Perfect for Halloween. Thanks Ann.  

[BudgieForce]

Frequent Democratic poster on DailyKos (not a troll that joined this week) is claiming there are at least three unreleased and/or internal live-caller polls that show Trump gaining or leading in the Upper Midwest late this week.

We've gotten multiple Republican internals in the past two weeks that show Trump ahead in the Midwest. What of it?

[BudgieForce]

Frequent Democratic poster on DailyKos (not a troll that joined this week) is claiming there are at least three unreleased and/or internal live-caller polls that show Trump gaining or leading in the Upper Midwest late this week.

Well my uncle works for Trafalagar and he says Biden is leading Texas by 5

https://i.ibb.co/Vv70f2g/Screen-Shot-2020-10-31-at-8-59-43-PM.png

Literally who?

This guy also doesn't say that they're "unreleased" or "internals".

[BudgieForce]

No one is scared. Jesus Christ, we've gone from a polling forum to mental institution in like 2 hours.

[BudgieForce]

Equivocating on the meaning of mediocre probably means Biden +5 in PA or something.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/charliespiering/status/1323371135870840839?s=21

uhh what?

Pretty normal Biden campaign language. It might be closer than what public polling is telling us, but I think it has more to do with voters getting complicit and not voting.