2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[BudgieForce]

The Federalist is on it

https://thefederalist.com/2018/04/18/new-polls-undermine-forecast-blue-wave-midterms/

Does the media ever get tired reporting on every bit of movement in the GCB?

Its april...  ;_;

[BudgieForce]

Its April...

[BudgieForce]

It doesn't matter that they've hit their low point in April. If they hit their low point in October, then democrats should be worried but its way too early. 

[BudgieForce]

I dont know if anyone's seen but there's a McLaughlin & Associates poll (paid for by Breitbart) that has the generic ballot as tied.

http://mclaughlinonline.com/2018/04/24/april-2018-national-survey-results/

For posterity, I'm posting it here. But theres a reason 538 gives them a C-.

[BudgieForce]

Since Trump's numbers remained relatively stable in that Pew poll, I'm gonna chalk up such a huge movement to a wacky sample.

[BudgieForce]

Since Trump's numbers remained relatively stable in that Pew poll, I'm gonna chalk up such a huge movement to a wacky sample.

I don't like the results of the poll, therefore it is bad.

Remember when Qunnipiac's Generic Ballot had dem's lead drop to +3 and everyone freaked out but their next poll 2 weeks later had it at +8? I'm not to worried about large movement in the generic ballot because they've mostly proven to be noise.

[BudgieForce]

Since Trump's numbers remained relatively stable in that Pew poll, I'm gonna chalk up such a huge movement to a wacky sample.

I don't like the results of the poll, therefore it is bad.

Remember when Qunnipiac's Generic Ballot had dem's lead drop to +3 and everyone freaked out but their next poll 2 weeks later had it at +8? I'm not to worried about large movement in the generic ballot because they've mostly proven to be noise.

Quinnipiac consistently has the highest pro-Dem house effect of any poll in the post-Trump era. Considering their previous polls, D+8 isn't a good result at all for Democrats (I think 538 adjusted it down to D+5).

Okay, and? It's a poll in May that shows movement. Throw it in the aggregate and see if it's a trend. God forbid I think its noise.

[BudgieForce]

Reuters has the generic ballot at Dems +5 AA and Dems +6 RV.


https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/reuters-ipsos-data-core-political-2018-05-04

[BudgieForce]

YouGov, May 6-8,  1232 RV

D 44 (+2)
R 35 (-4)

In the same poll, Trump approval went from -9 to -8 among RV, and from -10 to -3 among all adults.

I can't think of any reason why this would happen.

[BudgieForce]

Why we go by the average. If dems are up 7 right now, a poll showing +3 is within that range.

[BudgieForce]

Why we go by the average. If dems are up 7 right now, a poll showing +3 is within that range.

But if we did that we’d be denied pissing matches between PittsburghSteel and Andrew

Of course, it's a definitive part of the Atlas experience. /jk

[BudgieForce]

Why did this need to be it's own thread Limo?

[BudgieForce]

I take issue with the sample size. 500/24 is 21. So they basically polled 21 people per congressional district? 500 people for a generic ballot number is fine but 500 people to accurately poll 24 districts is not enough in my opinion. Way too much margin for error for such a small sample size.

[BudgieForce]

I take issue with the sample size. 500/24 is 21. So they basically polled 21 people per congressional district? 500 people for a generic ballot number is fine but 500 people to accurately poll 24 districts is not enough in my opinion. Way too much margin for error for such a small sample size.

Are you expressing skepticism towards the Generic topline or the competitive district number?

The competitive district number. Its R+3 but the size of the sub-samples is too small to give an accurate representation in my opinion. But I'm not an expert so....

[BudgieForce]

They're still climaxing over it:

https://www.rt.com/usa/426517-trump-war-republicans-democrats-poll/

Its best to just ignore it.

[BudgieForce]

People’s Pundit Daily is restarting Trump approval polls/generic ballot polling next week.

God damn it.

[BudgieForce]

RCP average today is at D +4.  It is not below 4 only because your favorite pollster, RASMUSSEN, HAS IT AT D +6.  Whatever.

The RCP average is being heavily influenced right now by Reuters and YouGov. We've had a bit of a dearth of polling in May outside of the bouncy trackers. That wont stop any hot takes about the narrowing generic ballot but thats how I see it.

Edit: Of the last 8 polls added to the RCP aggregate, 6 have been from either Reuters or YouGov. So yeah, very few pollsters actually polling in May.

[BudgieForce]

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TM1212Y17/type/week/filters/PD1:1/dates/20180101-20180521/collapsed/true

GOP leading according to newest reuters poll if I am reading it right

I just...uhm...what?

[BudgieForce]

I believe, per DKE, that Reuters poll LL creamed himself over has a R+4 sample, which would explain quite a bit

What is Reuters even doing?

[BudgieForce]

I think we're going to see the Dems rebound in the GCB. Trump's approval rating is showing signs of weakening again.

Btw, Trashmussen released a poll today showing the GCB only +1 for Dems, but I think we all know how seriously we should take them.

Looks like Rasmussen has a weekly GCB tracker now. So every Wednesday we'll get a new poll from them.

[BudgieForce]

We had anti administration waves in 2006, 2010, and 2014.  Actually history would mitigate against a 4th similar wave.

Evidence of different projections for college educated and non college voters would support such a likelihood.

In 2016 we all know the nation voted like 2 different nations. It may be that division will continue in 2018.  It may we’ll be that national generic polls may well mask this division.

You know in 2016 we were all surprised Trump was elected, that the GOP retained the Senate, and the GOP did not lose more seats in the House. Surprise again.

Midterms are almost always bad for the party in the white house. Its not a recent trend that started in 2006.

[BudgieForce]

Good for Comstock. Crimes against fashion need to be called out.

[BudgieForce]

LimoLiberal I've put links to generic poll listings at the top, so you can stop posting tweets with useless "periodic updates" from now on.

Your are a godsend.

[BudgieForce]

It is quite amazing to see the Democrats generic ballot lead fall from 13 points in December to 4 points today. If the Democrats generic ballot lead is only 4 points on Election Day they will not flip the House. This is phenomenal news for the Republican Party.

I'd bet my bottom dollar May is/was a high water mark for the GOP and Trump.

[BudgieForce]

It seems the Dem. advantage has narrowed down to about 2% from about 8-10% a few months ago.

We'll need to wait for the TX and OH special elections to see if this is true or not ...

Where are you getting 2%?