North Korea Mega Thread

[BudgieForce]

One of these days, North Korea is going to launch a missile over Japan and its going to break up in air and actually hurt people.

[BudgieForce]

WW3???

No. Even if we went to war with North Korea, it wouldn't be a world war.

[BudgieForce]

Threatening sanctions on China is certainly an interesting idea. Actually sanctioning China though, thats a disconcerting thought.

[BudgieForce]

I don't think that will impress the Chinese. They know that it's either a bluff or that we would hurt ourselves dramatically. Suspending all business with China would, if possible, cause a recession.

It would definitely be painful for Americans, sure. But it'll be a lot more painful for China. The american economy can handle a loss of cheap Chinese goods and production.  Im not sure the Chinese economy could handle massive drops in manufacturing due to american exports being cut off though.

Edit: Some very large american companies should be worried though. I would not want to be the CEO of General Motors, Apple or Walmart right about now.

[BudgieForce]

War in three months, China intervenes in 6 months,  Armageddon in 9 months.

Maybe, no and no.

[BudgieForce]

Kind of nervous that the US will order a strike on NK.

We can only go ahead with a strike if South Korea gives us the okay. And if South Korea is in a position to give the okay, than the situation is worse than I thought.

[BudgieForce]

At this point the US-South Korea alliance is not helping anyone. From the South Korean perspective, the US presence is an excuse for North Korea to keep building more weapons, and prevents them from having any talks with North Korea. Further, they fear bearing the brunt of any war started by the US. From the US perspective, we have to take into account casualties in South Korea as well as agree with the South Koreans on military action, or be seen as betraying the alliance. It would be optimal for both parties to split up at this point, and for South Korea to develop its own nukes. The advantage for South Korea is, it leaves them in control of their own destiny, the advantage for the US would be that we get out of the peninsula altogether, the North Korean threat is gone as far as we are concerned, and we no longer have a dog in the fight. The whole reason for the alliance to begin with, was domino theory where Truman thought South Korea falling to communism would mean next Japan, and so on. That concern is ancient history.

I cant even...

[BudgieForce]

Well that's it then. We'll be at war in the morning.

Congrats on the paranoia.

[BudgieForce]

Im getting to the point of not giving a crap. Its apparent nothing will happen unless North Korea actually hits someone, and I dont think Kim Jung Un has the balls to do it.

[BudgieForce]

Im listening to Trump talk about North Korea at the UN and I cant say I entirely hate it. He's just saying what we all know to be true, If North Korea attacks South Korea or Japan(or the USA for that matter) they will be destroyed. Its not a shocking development like the media is making it out to be.

[BudgieForce]

Im listening to Trump talk about North Korea at the UN and I cant say I entirely hate it. He's just saying what we all know to be true, If North Korea attacks South Korea or Japan(or the USA for that matter) they will be destroyed. Its not a shocking development like the media is making it out to be.

Because most other Presidents haven't tried to have a dick waiving competition like Trumpy started.

I get that, but its not like it hurts us in this instance. North Korea has had its dick out for decades, whats wrong with showing them ours is much, much bigger?

[BudgieForce]

North Korea accuses Trump of declaring war

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I just hope this is more posturing.

Of course it is.

[BudgieForce]

Tillerson says the US is in direct communication with NK but still predicates any meaningful talks with them on their denuclearization. https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/09/30/world/asia/us-north-korea-tillerson.html

That will never happen. It all seems last ditch effort to me.

Looks like you were right.



Tillerson has failed to stop the Twit-in-Chief, who is so stupid/demented that he doesn't understand that Korea had three different leaders in the last twenty-five years.

(Republicans, Turmp and his actions are your responbsibility. Both because you voted for him, and because you refuse to remove him even when the evidence of gross mental incapability is staring you in the face.)

Hopefully the generals who are calling the shots in the so-called Trump administration will distract President Spoiled Brat with some pretty pictures or a Trump Is Amazing storybook and prevent war.

Well, that's it then.

"Thats it" for what? Absolutely nothing happening. Everytime Trump tweets something, we dont need to freak out and prepare for war. Its getting kind of annoying.

Edits: Besides, South Korea will never give us the go-ahead to attack, atleast not under Moon. In fact, if we do attack North Korea without South Korean consent, they'd probably expel the troops we have stationed there and shut down our military bases.

[BudgieForce]

Tillerson says the US is in direct communication with NK but still predicates any meaningful talks with them on their denuclearization. https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/09/30/world/asia/us-north-korea-tillerson.html

That will never happen. It all seems last ditch effort to me.

Looks like you were right.



Tillerson has failed to stop the Twit-in-Chief, who is so stupid/demented that he doesn't understand that Korea had three different leaders in the last twenty-five years.

(Republicans, Turmp and his actions are your responbsibility. Both because you voted for him, and because you refuse to remove him even when the evidence of gross mental incapability is staring you in the face.)

Hopefully the generals who are calling the shots in the so-called Trump administration will distract President Spoiled Brat with some pretty pictures or a Trump Is Amazing storybook and prevent war.

Well, that's it then.

"Thats it" for what? Absolutely nothing happening. Everytime Trump tweets something, we dont need to freak out and prepare for war. Its getting kind of annoying.

Edits: Besides, South Korea will never give us the go-ahead to attack, atleast not under Moon. In fact, if we do attack North Korea without South Korean consent, they'd probably expel the troops we have stationed there and shut down our military bases.

It wouldn't matter anyway since a US attack would be so massive, NK would be for all intents and purposes not a state anymore so you would have a unified Korea or a Chinese province of the former NK. Also, Moon has been seen as weak by his own staff lately so they would pressure him to side with the US. I emphasize with Moon as I don't want war either but the route open to us for avoiding that outcome is rapidly closing.

No offence but you've been predicting imminent war for months. I really dont think war is ever going to happen unless North Korea starts it, and they're not going to. The new normal is inflammatory rhetoric between both sides, but thats it.

[BudgieForce]

I have been analyzing this via what I can see, some of which I can't post here. It doesn't look good on both sides and the rash rhetoric on both sides but more so from Trump doesn't help the situation. So we will see but I am more pessimistic on this one.

As you've repeatedly said for months.

[BudgieForce]

Calm before the storm remark by Trump could be an indication of a strike order if NK does indeed do its 9 October test. News sites are reporting that the next test will be an ICBM that has a range to hit the US West Coast. http://ewn.co.za/2017/10/06/north-korea-preparing-long-range-missile-test-ria-cites-russian-lawmaker

https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2017-10-04/cia-official-predicts-north-korean-provocation-on-columbus-day

I bet you its just Trump talking out of his butt like always and we shouldn't read too much into it.

[BudgieForce]

NK threatens Guam again https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/10/13/world/asia/north-korea-renews-guam-threat-ahead-of-joint-naval-exercise.html

“We have already warned several times that we will take counteractions for self-defense, including a salvo of missiles into waters near the U.S. territory of Guam,” Mr. Kim, the North Korean researcher, told the North’s official Korean Central News Agency on Friday. “The U.S. military action hardens our determination that the U.S. should be tamed with fire and lets us take our hand closer to the ‘trigger’ for taking the toughest countermeasure.”

It's just funny to me. It's like a mouse sending a warning to a cat.

[BudgieForce]

Implication of the amendment to executive order 13223?

Its probably because of this:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/10/20/air-force-recall-many-1-000-retired-pilots-address-serious-shortage/785344001/

The executive order allows retired servicemen to be recalled back in service. I really dont think this means whats your implying it could mean.

[BudgieForce]

The recent executive order allowing the Air Force to recall retired pilots was mentioned here as a possible indication of forthcoming trouble.  But the Air Force now says they don't intend to use it:

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So why did Trump issue the order?

Because Kelly probably told him to.

[BudgieForce]

Van Jackson‏
@WonkVJ

More Van Jackson Retweeted Steve Herman
Admin source tells me "Everyone wants 'preemptive war' now except for Mattis." Normal Korea experts have no idea how serious this is
Steve HermanVerified account @W7VOA
Tonight's Nelson Report (a reputable newsletter on NE Asia): Removing personal assets from #ROK now advisable, say sr. admin. officials.
3:01 PM - 21 Oct 2017

https://twitter.com/WonkVJ/status/921859016883552256

--

The link contains the RT of the Herman source image. He is VOA's WH Bureau chief and not John Q. Noone down the road. This is big, even if it's not imminent, the advisable warning with informal intent leading to formal maybe later is a huge development. Watch out for CSGs. If there are two or three on station near the peninsula in the next couple of months, that will be a sign, along with family and non-essential staff evacuations.

From the twitter account you linked, what I gather is it seems like the administration is trying to egg North Korea on until they make the first move.

[BudgieForce]

Diplomatic effort on "last legs" http://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/diplomatic-efforts-with-north-korea-on-last-legs-report-1081028163822

Thats a tad click bait, as Ghost of Ruin said.

[BudgieForce]

3 carriers in the region (big strategic step if a strike is ordered) https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/27/north-korea-us-operating-three-carriers-in-the-pacific.html

This is the single most likely sign of war I've seen. Far more ominous than belligerent tweets.

Trump will be in South Korea in a week. I really just think its a show of power.

[BudgieForce]

3 carriers in the region (big strategic step if a strike is ordered) https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/27/north-korea-us-operating-three-carriers-in-the-pacific.html

This is the single most likely sign of war I've seen. Far more ominous than belligerent tweets.

Trump will be in South Korea in a week. I really just think its a show of power.

Anyone think that Kim might choose Trump's visit to make some kind of demonstration (nuke or missile test)?

Absolutely.

[BudgieForce]

So....war is going to happen now?

No...

At least not yet anyway.

[BudgieForce]

So....war is going to happen now?

No...

At least not yet anyway.

I give it 10 days at the earliest, unless they have invented teleportation for the military families and non-essential personnel.

You cant see it right now but I'm rolling my eyes.