GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[prag_prog]

If I am 70+ and extremely rich af, I would be chilling and enjoying life lol instead of running for a gruelling senate campaign

[prag_prog]

Wonder if Ossoff campaigns for Warnock in next few weeks

[prag_prog]

New tweets today

https://twitter.com/ChristianWalk1r/status/1577284445367042049

https://twitter.com/ChristianWalk1r/status/1577286493692755970

[prag_prog]

I think Warnock is slight favorite but I also think people here are being bit too optimistic about Rs not turning out for runoff and Ds turning out well.

[prag_prog]

I think Warnock is slight favorite but I also think people here are being bit too optimistic about Rs not turning out for runoff and Ds turning out well.

Yes, if Walker wins it'll be because Democrats are asleep at the wheel, we cannot let that happen.

tbh Dems turnout in GA wasn't good..Warnock had to overperform crazily like close to 9 points vs other generic Dems running statewide in-order to reach runoff. So realistically, even 2-3% dropoff in Dem's turnout in runoff can lead to a Walker victory. That's why I am eager to see some Georgia polls..it should give a decent idea.

[prag_prog]

Please someone (other than partisan R pollsters) do a runoff poll

[prag_prog]

Anyone else think Walker may actually get BTFO’d since Dems already won enough seats to control the Senate, and Republicans controlling the House will satiate the voters who want Dems to have a check on their power? It’s hard to see how Walker doesn’t get drastically reduced turnout

we need couple of polls to get a decent idea. On paper, Warnock does seem to have slight advantage but I don't think we should definitely assume that R turnout will drop unless we have some evidence (polling or EV data). EV period is also less this time - just 5 days

[prag_prog]

I feel like there hasn't been much national attention on this race..especially when you compare with 2020 runoffs, it feels like there is very little national attention this time around. Wonder what the final turnout is gonna be like..at the moment, I am guessing it to be around 3-3.25M

[prag_prog]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1596575362883866624

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1596576123634479104

[prag_prog]

around 70K voted until 8:15PM

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1596679480722194433

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1596680589205192710

[prag_prog]

seriously though..why haven't there been any polls so far for this race except that AARP poll ?

[prag_prog]

We might end up at around 250K today..Black % of today's voters should give much better idea about the makeup of electorate than last 2 days data.

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1597291917091700736

[prag_prog]

considering this is Warnock's 4th election just in span of 2 years and the crazy amount spent on ads supporting Warnock and against Warnock, I feel like nothing much is gonna move the needle in next few days with regards to his favorables. It is pretty much a turnout game now for the runoff

[prag_prog]

For everyone's reference, here is the demographics of 2022 Electorate in Georgia. Quite encouraging that Warnock won by 1% in an electorate which was only 26% Black,  which is much lower than 2016, 2018, 2020.

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1597947327763079168

[prag_prog]

For everyone's reference, here is the demographics of 2022 Electorate in Georgia. Quite encouraging that Warnock won by 1% in an electorate which was only 26% Black,  which is much lower than 2016, 2018, 2020.

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1597947327763079168

The reason why the "black" vote share has tended to go down in Georgia over he past decade or so is, as Adam Griffen alluded to a few posts back, the fact that many of the newer voter registrations don't have race data. So (particularly if he "White" share is also down) what it means when the Black share is down is that there are more newer registrations voting which don't have race data. By the way, those same people are also disproportionately younger and more concentrated in the Atlanta metro.

So a lower "Black" share is not necessarily always bad for Ds and good for Rs.

good point..didn't consider that

[prag_prog]

TargetEarly has runoff data now..something interesting to monitor tomorrow would be how Black % compares vs General election at county level. Tom pointed this out earlier today -

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1597998189638189056
 

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/r2022?demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22race%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&geo=Fulton&geo_type=counties

[prag_prog]

Maybe he might have left it blank ? Or is that possible to do in a runoff ?

[prag_prog]

I am looking at turnout so far in comparison to EV of General election...here are the bottom10 counties when you look at turnout % so far vs EV of general election. I included margins in November and total number of Registered Voters in the county -

Taylor     -    (19.3% of November EV, Walker+27,  6K RVs)
Coweta   -    (28.4% of November EV, Walker+34,  114K RVs)
Tift         -    (31.9% of November EV, Walker+39,  27K RVs)
Pickens   -    (32.7% of November EV, Walker+63,  26K RVs)
Cherokee -   (33.1% of November EV, Walker+38,  206K RVs)
Effingham -  (33.2% of November EV, Walker+46,  50K RVs)
Spalding -    (33.5% of November EV, Walker+17,  51K RVs)
Bibb       -    (35.2% of November EV, Warnock+24,115K RVs)
Columbia -   (35.6% of November EV, Walker+27,  120K RVs)
Fayette    -   (35.8% of November EV, Walker+3,    97K RVs)

Only one of these 10 counties voted for Warnock. Rest all are counties won by Walker and most of them were won by big margin. Some of these aren't even deep red rurals..isn't Cherokee one of the main GOP suburban counties ? Anyways statewide average right now is around 45%. So some significant underperformance even in some big counties.

[prag_prog]

This thread summarizes current EV data quite well -

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1598400927333056529
TLDR: Atleast so far, Dem precints turnout has been better than GOP precints

[prag_prog]

I thought 280k for today, but hell, we might hit 300k once this is all said and done (I expect at least 30k ABMs on top of this figure + whatever vote comes in from post-5 PM EV counties).

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1598446943734321166

what's the deadline for ABMs ? Can they drop them off on Tuesday ?

[prag_prog]

I think today's turnout is going to be around 360K

[prag_prog]

Question for Georgia folks...are such long wait times a common thing during Early Voting ? Or is it just specific to runoff due to a shorter EV period ?

[prag_prog]

Here is comparison of top16 counties turnout so far by race in runoff vs November EV -

[prag_prog]

Here is comparison of top16 counties turnout so far by race in runoff vs November EV -

If those numbers are correct then it would take a miracle for Walker to win at this point.

Walker's best hope at this point is Day turnout being much much higher than anticipated

[prag_prog]

I have actually not gotten a single text from Walker (probably indicative of the fact that he will lose by 4). Regardless, I am not motivated to go out and vote specifically for Walker, and I’m not sure even annoying campaign texts from Warnock is enough to make me vote.

But seriously, why am I getting so many texts from Warnock with 0 reason why I should vote for him? Shouldn’t he be trying to convince people to vote for him, not just saying “go vote for Warnock”? Is it that hard to say “Warnock helped eliminate student loan debt”?

It's probably because the runoff strategy is more about maximizing base turnout than in November, so it's more prudent for both campaigns to reach out to voters who they know for sure will vote for them and remind them to vote. Using persuasion is of secondary importance, which I assume is why Warnock didn't highlight specific policies in his texts and why Walker hasn't reached out to you as (I assume?) a Warnock voter.

I voted for Walker. Not motivated to vote for him now that Trump is running.

Primary history is 2018 GOP (Abrams general) 2020 dem 2022 GOP.

I am bit curios on why you voted for Walker considering you are a socialist or atleast that's what I am assuming 'S' in your avatar means