PureSpectrum/COVID-19 Consortium: Biden +10% and 50 states+DC (wins with an odd 413 map) (user search)
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  PureSpectrum/COVID-19 Consortium: Biden +10% and 50 states+DC (wins with an odd 413 map) (search mode)
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Author Topic: PureSpectrum/COVID-19 Consortium: Biden +10% and 50 states+DC (wins with an odd 413 map)  (Read 1967 times)
Asta
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Posts: 647


« on: October 21, 2020, 07:42:19 PM »

This kind of survey reminds of Google Consumer Survey from 2016 when they had really funky results, like WI +16 Clinton but the overall national margin showed +2 Clinton, which was actually accurate.

As Nate Silver himself said, one huge poll consisting of 50 states to extrapolate each state margin is not the same as 50 separate state polls. However, the national margin even in this kind of poll is still useful because errors eventually cancel out each other in a huge sample.
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