Georgia Supreme Court Election

[GeorgiaModerate]

I've gotten a couple of mailers from Pinson, nothing from Barrow.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The election is really flying under the radar here in Forsyth County because none of the local races are interesting.  I expect this is going to be very low turnout.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I didn't realize though that the ballot apparently says "incumbent" next to the Rs name, so I assume that will likely help him

That's why its very, very hard for 'nonpartisan' court justices anywhere to lose. Unless there is a party label, or the court gets uber-politicized like Wisconsin, these races are usually quiet retentions. This sometimes leads to weird or even decades-old political coalitions showing up.

That we are even discussing such a race is unique.

I don't think Barrow will win, but it'll probably be closer because of the partisan nature it has taken on.

But it may show us interesting trends below the surface. For example, if Barrow overperforms in those blue trending ATL suburbs, it might tell us something about November

This is my take as well.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I just voted at my precinct in western Forsyth County.  There was one other voter present; I joked to the poll worker that they looked overwhelmed, and she said well, it's starting to pick up.  I was voter #122 at the precinct, but I have nothing to compare that to because I usually do early voting (just never got around to it for this election).

[GeorgiaModerate]

I just voted at my precinct in western Forsyth County.  There was one other voter present; I joked to the poll worker that they looked overwhelmed, and she said well, it's starting to pick up.  I was voter #122 at the precinct, but I have nothing to compare that to because I usually do early voting (just never got around to it for this election).

Are you in one of those giant 20k people precincts in Forsyth County - if so that seems pretty horrible for turnout.

Last time I checked we had something over 5000 registered voters in the precinct.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not a Georgian, but my understanding it's technically a "nonpartisan race". Given the little attention its been given, perhaps many voters will just vote the incumbent, not even realizing his party. This isn't a rare phenomena, especially with low-profile, non-partisan races. Voters will either vote whoever the incumbent is (unless they are unhappy with the state of things) or vote who evers name appears first.

Barrow's name was first, but Pinson was identified as the incumbent, so maybe those will cancel out.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1793018641253904581

[GeorgiaModerate]

My thoughts: uncontroversial incumbents almost always do well.  The incumbent tag powered Pinson, but this was mitigated by Barrow's higher name recognition in the areas he used to represent.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Meanwhile, Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee is crushing his opponent, as is Fulton County DA Fani Willis in her primary.

[GeorgiaModerate]

My thoughts: uncontroversial incumbents almost always do well.  The incumbent tag powered Pinson, but this was mitigated by Barrow's higher name recognition in the areas he used to represent.

Do you know why Barrow chose to run against Pinson? There were three other justices seeking re-election today as well who were left uncontested.

I have no idea.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think it makes more sense to argue this election indicates abortion doesn't work well in the south as opposed to the Midwest. African Americans are unlikely to have voted for Pinson because of it, but it clearly failed to move them towards  Barrow. It also reinforces the evidence from 2022 that southern suburbanites aren't prochoice in the same way their Midwestern counterparts were.

In that sense, what didn't happen tells us a lot. Because if Barrow were winning by 10% a lot of people here would be rightfully drawing inferences.

Completely disagree, Barrow made abortion an issue but we really don't know how many people even heard of his stance on the issue. He was still out spent by the Republican and barely spent over $1M. It's not like it was universally known that he was running on abortion.

I got 2 mailers from Pinson, nothing from Barrow.  I live in Forsyth County.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Take from one of the state's best political reporters:

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1793094377021337856
https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1793106326526337085

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Experts are here to tell you this doesn’t mean anything.

Yes.  Yes, we are.