NY-03 Special Election Megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1735355647028249080

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1742607710925775206

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1748051023204127121

[GeorgiaModerate]

Huh??

He's using a straight extrapolation from the 2022 result where Santos won by 7.5%.  This makes the assumption that party registration indicates who they voted for -- something that is obviously correlated, but it would be shocking in any election if it was 100% correlated.  It's fair to say that it suggests a close race, but no more than that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Predictions?  I'll go with Suozzi+5.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Emerson update:

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1755713546002763799

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/npfandos/status/1756106515440632219

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pilip by less than a point.

How is this not concern trolling at this point? If the election is truly within 1%, it's a total coin flip and there's no way you can confidently claim Pilip would end up on the winning end of it.

One of two things is going to happen.  It's not impossible that he'll be right; it's unlikely, but this IS a competitive district, and the polls show Suozzi with a consistent but not overwhelming lead.  If he's right, then he'll be abe to crow about how he was the only one to predict it.

OTOH, if he's wrong, then he's probably going to get mocked mercilessly for his dooming.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD/status/1756854575649173674

[GeorgiaModerate]

Being right sucks sometimes.

Bit premature there.

[GeorgiaModerate]

In the same vein:

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1757090224822198757

[GeorgiaModerate]

The New York City Emergency Management Department has issued a Travel Advisory for Monday night, February 12 into Tuesday, February 13. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect citywide from 4:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. Tuesday. The latest National Weather Service forecast calls for the possibility of 5 to 8 inches of snow at rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. This may result in difficult travel alongside low visibility, especially for the morning commute tomorrow.

https://www.nyc.gov/site/severeweather/index.page

Also, NYC Public Schools have been proactively closed for tomorrow.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Conservatives will find a way to vote, even if the stars and moon collide. A little snow won't hurt Pilip.

The last 18 months of special elections called and left a message for you.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What were the final early numbers before the 2022 general?

Slightly redder than this, but not much. Which is why I think Pilip will win - it'll be closer, but Suozzi has to make up an 8-point deficit. That is not easy.

The key point you are overlooking is that there are not only registered D's and R's here; last time the independent vote was something like 28% of the total.  It's reasonable to think they broke strongly for Santos then, but will be less R this time.  There's also the persuasion factor; all registered R's do not always vote for the R, and all registered D's do not always vote for the D.  Given the tarnish of Santos and the fact that Suozzi is well known and is running a much more active campaign than Zimmerman did, it's also reasonable to think that Suozzi will do better among all three groups (R, D, I) than Zimmerman.

In short, your extrapolation is overly simplistic.  But we'll know tomorrow night who's right.  If Pilip wins I will certainly say that you were right and the rest of us were wrong.  But if Suozzi wins, you should also own up to it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Suozzi +Double Digits. It's a special election in a district more educated than the nation that voted for Biden by high single digits. The end.

Could be double digits, but the main reason would be Santos being a drag, not the other factors (note that special elections in highly educated districts recently haven't been as pro-Democratic; Republicans have averaged about 3 points better than Trump's 2020 showing since November).

This may or may not have been intentional, but either way it's amusing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1757180909080420683

In the replies, he says they have been more Suozzi than Pilip.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Should be noted that Queens picked up quite a bit too as well in their last update.

The thing with Nassau is that even if it accounts more than 2022, the raw vote from it though will still be much less, blunting the impact. The EV is going to make up more of the overall total than 2022, which is not good news for Pilip either.

Do you think the snowstorm will cost Pilip the race or do you think she'd lose without it as well?

We will really only be able to tell that once we see the votes. There's a very good argument for strong Dem persusion effects in this contest, though again we won't know until we see results.

I think if Suozzi wins by no more than 1 or 2% we can reasonably say that the snowstorm was the difference, but if he wins by more than that he was going to win anyway.

[GeorgiaModerate]

We got like 7-8 inches of snow in NJ, how bad was it across the river?

I'm in Farmingdale maybe around 5 or so here.   Roads are clear, though digging out after the plows was a pain which I literally just did.   Very heavy wet snow

Yeah the snow here in Philly (around three to four inches, I'd say) was very sloppy "heart-attack" snow. Fortunately, the sun and the air temp has already done quite a bit of work and the roads around where I am are pretty much clear save for a bit of slickness.

I can't imagine that the roads in NYC are drastically worse. 

That kind of snow would have paralyzed Atlanta for a week.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 live blog: https://abcnews.go.com/538/live-updates/new-york-3rd-district-special-election-live-blog/?id=107208370

When was the last time we had so much interest in a single House special election?  2017 GA-06?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1757591895658975306

[GeorgiaModerate]

Suozzi just lost 0.3% in the 10 seconds I was on the NYT results page. If we conservatively assume that that was unlikely, and that he only looses that much every 30 seconds, we can still see that before the end of the night he'll be reduced to ~-25% of the vote. It's over.

You, sir, have a great future in election punditry.

[GeorgiaModerate]

My Dave Wasserman senses are tingling, I can feel a call coming from him very soon.

Yeah wait where is Dave / why hasn’t he tweeted anything tonight?

ISTR him posting something about taking a Twitter break.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Any estimates on the final margin?

d+8 maybe?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Inb4 the right-wing conspiracy theorists start saying Pilip was a Democratic plant.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So if Republicans can’t run on the economy or immigration this year, what can they run on?

Hunter, of course.