Ohio Ballot Issue 1 Megathread (August 8)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The average of our poll (assigning the midpoint of each range, i.e. votes in an "over 50%" group are counted as 55% for that side) currently shows No winning with 57.3%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1689057680223092736

[GeorgiaModerate]

No one actually thought this would succeed, right?

One sixth of the voters (16 out of 96) in our poll did, although I'm sure some of them voted Yes just to troll.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The night wouldn't have been complete without this:

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1689074366514896896

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1689068581810839552

[GeorgiaModerate]

The night wouldn't have been complete without this:

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1689074366514896896

waaaaa waaaa waaaa goo goo ga ga the side I rooted for lost so it rigged waaa waa waaa

Smh.

Why are we giving her any sort of attention whatsoever? At least Trump is a former president and very likely to be the nominee again. At least MTG, Boebert and Gaetz are duly elected members of Congress. She's absolutely nothing. She might as well a random homeless crack addict.

She's very likely running for Senate next year, and very likely to be the Republican nominee if she does.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Portage, Mahoning, and Lake Counties are all still to the left of the state. Trumbull is only about a point to the right of the state. Some interesting electoral trends are happening in Northeast Ohio.

Dave Wassermann commented: "The final Ohio Issue 1 map could end up looking a lot like the '18 Senate race map, where Sherrod Brown's strength/religious conservatives' weakness with blue-collar voters in eastern Ohio proved decisive."

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm honestly pretty impressed that the state Republicans managed to convince conservative rural voters to vote for something that seems so obviously against usual rural conservative populist principles. I guess in this case voters were relatively adept at figuring out the referendum was really about abortion. Too bad for the anti-abortion Republicans that this result also indicates that the abortion referendum is going to sail through.

I think there's no longer any question that abortion is a losing issue for Republicans in all but the (non-Atlas) reddest areas following Dobbs, and that this wasn't just a short-term effect.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I really don't understand Republican obsession with abortion laws. Especially since this caused that much backlash. Is that really the hill they want to die upon?

They are stuck between a rock (their base has wanted this for 50 years and finally has the opportunity to do it) and a hard place (the overwhelming majority of the country doesn’t want it).

Case in point:

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1689419860290285568