Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Welcome to the official results thread!  In the interest of having a smooth election night experience for all users, please read the guidelines below.

This thread is for results and discussion of U.S. House and Senate federal elections.  There is an equivalent thread in the Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections board for state and local results tonight; click here for that thread.  Please try to post results in the appropriate thread.  If some results get posted in the wrong thread, it’s not the end of the world, and we won’t move them.  But let’s at least try to keep things in the appropriate venue.

If you’ve never experienced an election night with us, be aware that this thread will get very busy when results start coming in.  In order to facilitate a coherent discussion that progresses smoothly and minimizes thread derailment, we request that you take any extended side discussions to separate threads.  Similarly, please try to avoid the use of empty quotes and memes to avoid cluttering the thread.  You may also want to disable the forum feature that warns you on new replies while posting; it can be too hard to keep up with on fast-moving threads.  To do this, in your Profile under "Look and Layout Preferences", check the box for "Don't warn on new replies made while posting."  If this causes your reply to lose some of its continuity, nobody will mind.

Finally, as you know, emotions may run high as the night goes on.  Please be civil in your interactions with others on the forum.  As always, personal attacks are not acceptable; nor is trolling, which includes excessive dooming or concern trolling.  Severe or repeat offenders may be temporarily muted from the thread or board, in addition to any other mod actions.  If you think someone is violating the Terms of Service, use the Report button to report the post; this is the fastest and surest way to bring it to the moderators’ attention.  If you just find someone annoying (not that this ever happens around here … ),  feel free to use the Ignore button.  There’s nothing wrong with doing so, and it’s not irreversible; you can always "un-ignore" them later.

Enjoy your election night!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Links to election results reporting sites

Feel free to PM me with suggestions for other sites, and especially links to fill in the list below!

News & analysis sites

CNN results index
Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ)
New York Times results
The Needle (NYT)
538 Live Blog

Official state results (Secretary of State, Board of Elections, etc.)

Alabama      
Alaska                                  
Arizona                                          
Arkansas                  
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

[GeorgiaModerate]

Poll closing times:

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1587109215461675009

[GeorgiaModerate]

538: When Will We Know 2022 Midterm Election Results?

Bookmark this one.  It's a detailed state-by-state breakdown of when results will be reported by each state, along with an interactive that shows an estimate of the percentage reported in each state by time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The thread is now unlocked.  A few reminders:

1. Please be civil.

2. Please read the guidelines in the first post in the thread.

3. There are useful resource links in the first few replies.  Feel free to post new ones.

Enjoy your election night!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is Dixville Notch (or one of those other NH towns) still doing the midnight voting thing?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just voted! Turnout was light but steady, passed people on the way in and the way out.  By far the youngest person there.  

Didn't have to wait in line.  For the fourth straight election cycle, I got a "that's a beautiful name" from the vote registration person

Was also pleased to see that this ballot wasn't the freaking SAT's like it was in 2020.  

The will they or won’t they of 2022 has finally arrived.

Don’t tell me you undervoted Sen.

Nope, every field was accounted for! As I said previously, I'm keeping my Senate choice close to the chest for now.  But seriously guys, stop focusing on my single Senate vote and let's get back to the election at large!

Apparently OSR thinks my prediction of a 53-45(+2I) Senate minimum is bullish! (Or is it bearish?)

53 Democrats?  Yeah, that's pretty bullish.

[GeorgiaModerate]

My heart will be leaping in so much joy when I see all the Demonrats signing up for Psychotherapy after tonight. Reality and realization you need to humble up will be less than 24 hours away!!!!

PSA: I recommend that you (and everyone) carefully read the guidelines in the first post in this thread.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Don't start.  I mean it.  You know who I'm talking to.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Between this and the snow in the Nevada and the rain in SoCal, God is really showing off today!
https://twitter.com/newswire_us/status/1590004824333877248?s=46&t=gOb6yoh1SQ...

Miami Rs are barely doing better in election day than early vote which they already won.

The (potential) hurricane isn't going to hit the coast for a couple days, so it's not going to affect the election anyway.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JenAFifield/status/1590006609216147458
https://twitter.com/JenAFifield/status/1590007396344422400

[GeorgiaModerate]

Are we getting the needle tonight?

Cohn continues to tease about it:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1590022458957963266

Edit: corrected the tweet link.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The 538 live blog is (ahem) live: https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2022-midterm-election/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anecdotal turnout observations: it's a beautiful and amazingly warm (76F) day here in Forsyth County.  I was out with my wife for a while and happened to drive past three local precincts.  Two had half-full parking lots, while the other was nearly empty.  None had visible lines outside their buildings.  My kid in Athens also texted that he and his girlfriend voted this morning and there was no wait.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/pasquines_us/status/1590050197727744001

This shows a huge political shift, honestly maybe comparing this year to 2014 was underselling it.

You're extrapolating national trends from Guam?

You were less obnoxious as a doomer.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's some good advice:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1590052413121056769

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hey Atlas Dems,

Where are we meeting again tonight for the top secret plot to steal the election and turn on the CRT brainwashing device? I want to make sure I'm not late for the festivities.

Hail Soros!

I'll be a bit late.  It's my turn to monitor the satellites.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia.  See the linked article for the AJC's live updates.

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1590060334420611074

[GeorgiaModerate]

From the Georgia elections director:

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1590023417415098368

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1590070658532511744

oh my gosh maybe Smiley can pull it off?!

How many votes do you think she's going to get in Maricopa County?  Duh.

[GeorgiaModerate]

HASSAN SWEEP TIME TO EXTRAPOLATE

Now I picture a Dalek taking over Wassermann's Twitter account and tweeting "EXTRAPOLATE! EXTRAPOLATE!"

[GeorgiaModerate]

Some Needly news:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1590067962693963777
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1590069247375704064

[GeorgiaModerate]

We always do WORSE than the polls show.

Only for those with short memories.  2012 wasn't that long ago.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I feel like the collapse of the FL State Dem party is really going to be one of those things people talk about for the next 10 years. The fact Dems are outright behind in Miami Dade already is awful.

It'll be interesting to see how much of Rs gains in Florida is contained to Miami or if Rs also do nuts out of Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville.

Yeah this can be brutal. They also seem likely to completely collapse in the state legislature unlike the Rs in the 2018 swing wave states .

It seems like state legistlautres tend to be under reactive to waves and I think that's for a variety of reasons. Tonight, it doesn't look like Rs will make massive legislative gains in a ton of states, but we shall see.

     The GOP is already close to maxxed in terms of where we can go with state legislatures. Even in a red wave, there just aren't that many vulnerable seats left for us to pick off there.

I also think gerrymanders being undone in states like PA and MI sort of cancel out the shift in the environment towards Rs.

Also, as many well know, redistricting is forcing quite a few default Dem gains in some state legislatures due to districts generally being pulled in towards urban cores and the surrounding suburbs.

Isn't this part of the reason why we're not likely to see a 2010-style drubbing (60+ seats)?

(I mean, that's *not* really a possibility, right?)

It's not a realistic possibility -- way below 1% even with the turnout data we're seeing so far.  At the moment I'd put their ceiling at about 40, although I think something in the 25-30 range is most likely.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I feel like the collapse of the FL State Dem party is really going to be one of those things people talk about for the next 10 years. The fact Dems are outright behind in Miami Dade already is awful.

It'll be interesting to see how much of Rs gains in Florida is contained to Miami or if Rs also do nuts out of Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville.

Yeah this can be brutal. They also seem likely to completely collapse in the state legislature unlike the Rs in the 2018 swing wave states .

It seems like state legistlautres tend to be under reactive to waves and I think that's for a variety of reasons. Tonight, it doesn't look like Rs will make massive legislative gains in a ton of states, but we shall see.

     The GOP is already close to maxxed in terms of where we can go with state legislatures. Even in a red wave, there just aren't that many vulnerable seats left for us to pick off there.

I also think gerrymanders being undone in states like PA and MI sort of cancel out the shift in the environment towards Rs.

Also, as many well know, redistricting is forcing quite a few default Dem gains in some state legislatures due to districts generally being pulled in towards urban cores and the surrounding suburbs.

Isn't this part of the reason why we're not likely to see a 2010-style drubbing (60+ seats)?

(I mean, that's *not* really a possibility, right?)

Yeah nationally the congressional map is more balanced, and also Dems just have a better vote distribution. In 2010, the only seats truly safe for them were inner-city often heavily black or Hispanic seats. Nowadays, they have quite a few suburban seats that help pad their floor that a decade ago prolly would've gone R in this type of environment (CO-06, TX-07, TX-32, CA-06, GA-07, NC-14, MI-11, ect, ect.

At the same time though, Rs also have a bit of a higher floor due to poalrization in rural areas.

How is GA-07 looking, btw? Haven't heard much about it recently (also asking because CB is in my top fifteen favorite Dems, second in GA only behind Lucy McBath).  

I think you may be behind the Georgia news.  Redistricting made the 7th much more D and the 6th (my new district) much more R, so McBath moved over to the 7th and defeated Bourdeaux in the primary.  It's Safe D for McBath.  The only competitive district remaining in Georgia is the 2nd.