Early Voting thread.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1588332178836180992

[GeorgiaModerate]

I really hope it's apples and oranges in Nevada because the early vote looks pretty bleak.   Dems will be lucky to hold the legislature at this rate (if the numbers are comparable to previous elections).

The Dem margin in early votes is down to 5,200 votes total, that's horrible.

It is, but in person early voting is over. There's a few days of mail ballots to beef up that margin, plus anything postmarked by election day is counted still

Exactly; the Clark firewall was 47K when all was said and done in 2018 early vote. By Tuesday, it could definitely approach 40K depending on what comes in this weekend.

Lol

I'm sorry that you don't like actual facts and data!

How is a “could be” a fact?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/GinaForAustin/status/1588703703892168705

This is pretty impressive.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1588883116068065281

[GeorgiaModerate]

Can someone clarify something for me about the Nevada numbers?:
- I'm reading that in 2018, the Clark "firewall" was 47k
- Right now, the Clark "firewall" is 29k

And the difference here is supposed to spell absolutely doom for the Democrats.

But Rosen won the 2018 Senate race by about 50k votes! It was a huge Dem wave election year.  Why would getting 18k fewer votes this year be either unsurprising or predictive of a Republican victory?

Because it's expected that independents will vote more R this year than they did in 2018.  I wouldn't say it's absolute doom, though; the tone in Ralston's latest blog update is that you'd rather be the Republicans right now, but it's by no means a done deal.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1589049947873497089

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1589445647333064704

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1589445647333064704

The fact he needs scotch and is turning off Twitter DEFINITELY tells us which way he thinks this is going…and I trust him.

Watch him say they’re all too close to call.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/crystal-ball-says-cortez-masto-hangs-on-sisolak-doesnt-and-dems-retain-two-of-three-house-seats

I’d be ok with that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1589752520301109248

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/asdfjkalsdfla/status/1589424569349439488
https://twitter.com/asdfjkalsdfla/status/1589424578530799617

Adam, you got any thoughts on this?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is that including today, or just early vote?

Would be surprised if the red areas were the ones lagging, considering early vote seemed to be robust for Dems *and* Reps?

In the tweets I posted above?  Early vote only.

[GeorgiaModerate]

60-40 R-D/I split doesn't seem too bad for Ds - yet - in Maricopa, considering we were preparing for a huge influx of Rs today.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590004418019459072

The tweet is gone. Is this the one that said 100k voters?

It’s more like 40k, same 60 R - 25 I - 15 D split.

Should get bluer throughout the day, but probably not by much.

It looks like Masters is probably going to win.

Archer deleted the original tweet because he says he mistakenly was looking at data from the primary, not today.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ralston with another blog update, including this on what to look for tonight:

WHAT TO LOOK FOR TONIGHT: I’m not sure, as I never am, what numbers will post first but I will be most interested in the Clark early/mail numbers, those 450,000 votes. If Sisolak and Cortez Masto are ahead by under 10 percent, it could be a very long night. If they are as low as 6 or 7 points ahead, they will find it difficult to survive. They will need to win Washoe County to retain their seats, so look at those numbers when they pop up. Washoe turnout already is 43.5 percent. Election Day turnout may not be as robust there. Look at the raw vote totals, too, because I will go into the evening assuming a 50,000-vote deficit in the rurals for the top of the ticket incumbents, give or take. One more thing: In the first mostly mail election here two years ago, about 15 percent of the vote was counted after Election Day. No one I know expects mail to be that heavy this year — no pandemic, it's a midterm — but there will be thousands of mail ballots come in, with Dems likely winning them close to 2-to-1. It may not be over tonight.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2022

[GeorgiaModerate]

Republicans don't neccessarily need Nevada.
They have "Multiple Pathways" now to a Senate Control.

Democrats are not going to win all of the 4 Battlegrounds (PA, NV, AZ, GA). That would only happen in a D-Wave Year. Usually the Party that has the momentum at the end of Campaign wins most of the Close Races in a Midterm see 2014 or 2018.

Well, he wasn't necessarily wrong.  He just had the wrong party with the momentum.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So when does early voting start in Georgia for the runoff?

There is actually a bit of controversy about this.  They can't start setting up for the runoff until the first election is certified (which should be soon), so having the runoff so soon after the election and with Thanksgiving in the middle really cuts down the early voting time.  Basically, it's Mon-Fri the week after Thanksgiving, with counties having the option to add the Tue-Wed and Sun around Thanksgiving.  Problematically, voting on the Saturday after Thanksgiving is NOT allowed due to a state law preventing it on the Saturday following a Thursday or Friday holiday.  However, the state Democratic Party, the DSC, and the Warnock campaign have filed suit to allow it on that Saturday.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So when does early voting start in Georgia for the runoff?

There is actually a bit of controversy about this.  They can't start setting up for the runoff until the first election is certified (which should be soon), so having the runoff so soon after the election and with Thanksgiving in the middle really cuts down the early voting time.  Basically, it's Mon-Fri the week after Thanksgiving, with counties having the option to add the Tue-Wed and Sun around Thanksgiving.  Problematically, voting on the Saturday after Thanksgiving is NOT allowed due to a state law preventing it on the Saturday following a Thursday or Friday holiday.  However, the state Democratic Party, the DSC, and the Warnock campaign have filed suit to allow it on that Saturday.

https://twitter.com/ByNickEWoot/status/1593009146785583105

[GeorgiaModerate]

So when does early voting start in Georgia for the runoff?

There is actually a bit of controversy about this.  They can't start setting up for the runoff until the first election is certified (which should be soon), so having the runoff so soon after the election and with Thanksgiving in the middle really cuts down the early voting time.  Basically, it's Mon-Fri the week after Thanksgiving, with counties having the option to add the Tue-Wed and Sun around Thanksgiving.  Problematically, voting on the Saturday after Thanksgiving is NOT allowed due to a state law preventing it on the Saturday following a Thursday or Friday holiday.  However, the state Democratic Party, the DSC, and the Warnock campaign have filed suit to allow it on that Saturday.

What's the atmosphere like on the ground, GA? Fatigue? Excitement?

Probably more like boredom, here in Forsyth County.  It seems like the runoff is not nearly as much on people's radar as the general election was.  The volume of ads I'm seeing has dropped way off and is now predominantly pro-Warnock/anti-Walker; before Nov. 8 it was about 50-50.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1594799639194116102

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1594830558382759940

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/markniesse/status/1595065839098667009

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1595491439697399831

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/1595508584938614784

The number of counties has since gone up to 23 as Bartow County (heavily R exurb of Atlanta) has also added Saturday voting.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/1595508584938614784
The number of counties has since gone up to 23 as Bartow County (heavily R exurb of Atlanta) has also added Saturday voting.

I don't understand how it can be legal for some counties in a state to have polls open on a particular day, but not others?!

I mean, equal protection.

All counties must have early voting Monday-Friday next week.  They also have the option to offer it any or all days out of Tuesday, Wednesday, Saturday, and Sunday this week.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1595770701419528192