Early Voting thread.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1585187226924654592

[GeorgiaModerate]

Some context on the Georgia EV:

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1585275202719694853

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1585337438205276160

[GeorgiaModerate]

From a Georgia Public Broadcasting political reporter who's also a data geek:

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1585709488119635968

[GeorgiaModerate]

What does the early vote tell us about this year’s midterm election?

Many people are voting.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Turnout continues to run below 2018 levels in Texas

Didn't Texas make it harder to vote early this year, or am I misremembering?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1585982103094640644

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1586020281646075911

[GeorgiaModerate]

I’m updating my early voting ratings. Reminder this is my opinion on how good the news is for each party at this time. Obviously not an actual contest rating and is subject to change.

Likely D: Michigan

Lean D: Georgia (D’s still winning the “model”, but rural turnout is still high. I might shift this if white turnout keeps rising), Iowa (D’s have caught up to 2020 and have been gaining)

Toss-up: Wisconsin (I didn’t realize early in-person had only just started, so probably too early), Pennsylvania (tracking with 2020), and Ohio (D’s are winning the model, but urban and minority turnout are way down)

Lean R: Arizona, Texas (rural turnout is very high), Nevada (R’s are outpacing 2020 despite some rural counties reporting nothing)

Likely R: North Carolina (same story as Texas, but more data and registered R’s are outpacing 2020), Oregon, California

Safe R: Florida

These posts are interesting, but may I suggest a terminology change?  Even though you clearly say these aren't the same as contest ratings, I think some people might still misinterpret it that way.  Perhaps instead of Safe, Likely, and Lean, use something like "Strong overperformance", "Moderate overperformance", and "Slight overperformance".

[GeorgiaModerate]

Will even Mastriano lead on Election Night?

Yep. He'll probably declare victory then, too.

It will then be funny when he loses by 10 points.

It'll be funny but the insufferable Doomer takes here will not be. We should tempban SnowLabrador, The Trump Virus, MillennialModerate and GoTfan in the interim.

From the guidelines in the first post in both results threads:

As always, personal attacks are not acceptable; nor is trolling, which includes excessive dooming or concern trolling.

[GeorgiaModerate]

To illustrate how FRAUDUDENT the Target Smart Model is when you do "Modelled Party":

It gives Frank Mrvan a nearly 30 Point edge over Jennifer Ruth Green in IN-1.

It gives Elaine Luria a nearly 9 Point edge over Jen Kiggans in VA-2

And those are just two illustrations by me.

Trash Target Smart in the bin.

Not to be rude, but "fraududent"?

Tom Bonior is an fraud and needs to testify before Congress about misleading the American Public.

OK, that’s so absurd that it finally made me realize you’re a parody account. Congratulations for keeping up the act for so long!

[GeorgiaModerate]

In Virginia the early voting percentages are very similar to 2021 when Youngkin won.

Similar to the same point in 2021, or to the final 2021 percentages?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1586761705446596610

[GeorgiaModerate]

*snip*

I stopped reading at MSNBC.

That's OK.  I stopped reading at 'Forumlurker'.

If you had stopped reading at 'Forumlurker,' you wouldn’t have been able to post this response.

I have Mod-like powers.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/SarahBurris/status/1586843524120850434

I stopped reading at MSNBC.

Is there a source on this? If it’s even remotely true, it must have been in the last few days because I’m seeing it exceptionally low like everywhere else.

Simon Rosenberg (a Democratic strategist) indicated on Twitter yesterday that youth turnout is indeed running below 2020.  The tweet thread has a number of other interesting nuggets; I recommend reading the whole thing: https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1586726446747336706

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ralston's updates are giving me flashbacks to previous cycles when they were good for Democrats one day, good for Republicans the next, until it got close to Election Day.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ralson has updated the blog.  Summary:

Clark firewall now at 25,000, or just under 9 percent. Still below registration for Dems, but only by half a point. Statewide lead is now at 3.1 percent, or 1.500 ballots, which is slightly above registration, so a little breathing room for D incumbents, who surely cannot feel safe with that margin but perhaps can stop sweating so profusely. Repubs were unloading their confetti earlier today, now must put it away for a time.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2022

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1587594329325031425

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ralston has updated, the urban D firewall has reduced slightly to 23,000 while the Ra currently have about 17 k banked in rural votes.

No mail from Clark County yet today, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a subsequent update.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Continue to like what I see in PA. We're approaching 1M mail-ins and Dem return rate is still 4% ahead of GOP (69% vs 65%)

Do you think there'll be a substantial portion of Democrats who vote on Election Day itself? That's one thing I've been trying to factor in, with the public basically thinking COVID is over.

Yeah, the Monmouth poll broke this down - something like the early vote was Fetterman 68/25 but the E-day vote was Oz 54/41. So Oz will definitely win the e-day vote, but 40% is still pretty substantial vote for Dems on Election Day. I think the VBM # overall was only 25% of the electorate, so most PA'ians are going to vote on Election Day still.

If we're going to use postal abbreviations to create words for state residents, how about PAtrons or PAgans (or even PAPArazzi)?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia:

Day 16 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 136,848 voters cast ballots Tuesday, for a grand total of 1,947,275 votes.

Breakdown of Tuesday's voters:

Code:

83044 White 60.68%
34561 Black 25.26%
2915         Asian 2.13%
2711    Latino 1.98%
13617 Other 9.95%

76623 Female 55.99%
59821 Male         43.71% 
404          Other         0.30%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

1125190 White 57.78%
573369 Black 29.44%
34358 Asian 1.76%
32803       Latino 1.68%
181555 Other 9.34%

1072629 Female 55.08%
870444 Male         44.70% 
4202         Other 0.22%

Isn’t that pretty bad for Dems?

Dems need around 31% black vote right ?

The "other" category is mostly people who simply didn't specify a race on their registration.  Adam has a formula to allocate these to the other racial groups, but as an approximation, simply prorating them based on the other group percentages would add about 3% to the number shown.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stephen_richer/status/1587931136100950017

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1588163502665072640

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1588187392501915651

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anyways using TargetSmart registered party data, Ralston's Clark analysis is confirmed. the firewall at this point in 2018 was 30k in Clark while it is 22k now. What I WILL say is that statewide, Dems actually are leading by more than they were in 2018, but far far less in 2020. Ralston is not perfect, he is comparing 2018 data to 2020 which is incredibly dull. By his own years of comparisons Dems are fine, but its when comparing 2020 that Dems should be terrified. Percentage wise, the gap is also smaller than in 2020 at this point, with NV being 0.9 percent less D than at this point in 2020.

The problem, and this doesn't affect only Nevada, is that 2022 is an apple being compared to oranges, to use Ralston's own metaphor.  Early voting this year will be more prevalent and more polarized than in 2018, but less prevalent and less polarized than in 2020.