GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 33,118
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« on: September 05, 2022, 04:36:25 PM » |
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« edited: September 05, 2022, 04:40:39 PM by GeorgiaModerate »
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According to some people, today marks the start of the "real" campaign. The election is 64 days away. What are your predictions? I'll start:
House: Republicans most likely gain around 10 seats (+/-5, so 5 to 15) and win a narrow majority. But if things break for them, they could gain as much as 25. OTOH, if things break for the Democrats, they'll hold the House and could gain up to 5 seats.
Senate: The most likely outcome is pretty close to the status quo: the Democrats win Pennsylvania and nothing else flips, so D+1. With a little wiggle room on either side, it could be D+0 (R's flip Nevada, lose PA) to D+2 (D's flip PA and one other, probably Wisconsin). If there's a real wave one way or the other, the result could range from R+3-4 (NV, GA, AZ, and NH if Morse is nominated) to D+4 (PA, WI, NC, and OH).
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