GeorgiaModerate
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Atlas Superstar
Posts: 33,290
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« on: January 22, 2021, 11:36:15 AM » |
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I did some playing around with the numbers, starting from the 2020 vote and with a couple of simplifying assumptions:
1. The 2024 Trumpist candidate will pull X% of the 2020 Trump voters in each state. The remaining Trump voters stay with the mainstream Republican candidate.
2. But Y% of the 2020 Biden voters were soft Republicans or independents who were turned off by Trump, so they go back to the mainstream Republican.
Combining these, we get:
2024 R vote in a state = (2020 R vote)(1-X) + (2020 D vote)(Y)
2024 D vote in a state = (2020 D vote)(1-Y)
2024 T vote in a state = (2020 R vote)(X)
First I guessed values of 25% for X (R->Trumpist switchers) and 10% for Y (D->R switchers). This gives the Democrat a 5.9% PV margin but flips only NC, by a margin of 1.4%. The next closest D wins are AZ and GA at 2.7%. Florida just misses flipping, with the R winning it by 13K votes (0.1%); Texas goes to the R by 1.9%.
If we drop the percentage of D->R switchers from 10% to 5%, the Democrat romps to an 11.0% PV victory, flipping NC, FL, TX, OH (0.8% margin), and IA (0.6%); possibly ME-02 as well, but I didn’t check it (RCV would undoubtedly come into play). The closest R win is Alaska at 1.1%.
If we leave D->R at 10% but increase the number of R->Trumpist defectors to 30%, the Democrat wins the PV by 8.2%, flipping NC, FL, and TX (0.7%). The closest R win is Ohio at 1.1%.
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