GeorgiaModerate
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« on: October 25, 2020, 07:35:45 PM » |
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This thread was inspired by a conversation on the 2020 board, in which I was asked about my memories of presidential elections. So here are mine; feel free to add your own.
I was born in the mid-1950s, and the first election I remember was 1964. But I wasn’t really that aware of it (being in elementary school at the time). The main things I remember were the Weekly Reader mock election, and the AuH2O bumper stickers for Goldwater, which the science-nerd kid that was me thought was cool. I’m certain my parents, both staunch Republicans, voted for Goldwater, although I don’t recall them talking about it.
By 1968 I had become much more aware of current events and politics, and became interested in the election due to ongoing discussions between my parents on who to support. My father was for George Romney (governor of Michigan and Mitt Romney’s father) while my mother was for Nixon. She was always a huge fan of his, and even after Watergate would have happily voted for him again if he was still eligible and ran again. As I suspect is the case for most of us, my initial political leanings stemmed from theirs. You could have called me a Rockefeller Republican (a now sadly extinct species), i.e. fairly liberal socially but conservative fiscally. We were all happy when Nixon won, as the election looked close going in and my parents were worried about George Wallace possibly getting enough support to influence the outcome.
OTOH, 1972 wasn’t very interesting, apart from the VP drama on the Democratic side (Eagleton being replaced with Shriver). It was a foregone conclusion from the beginning, and McGovern’s campaign seemed like almost a joke. I didn’t pay much attention to the election that year.
1976 was the first year I could vote, and I happily did so for Gerald Ford, who I’ve always considered to be a decent man who was thrust into the Presidency by an accident of history. I had been distressed by Ford’s pardon of Nixon (as a hotheaded college student, I wrote a paper denouncing it in a poli sci class that semester in 1974), but got over it enough by '76 to support Ford over Jimmy Carter, who I felt would make a poor President. But if Arizona Rep. Morris Udall had gotten the Democratic nomination, I would have seriously considered voting for him; although his policies were more liberal than I was really comfortable with at the time, I was always very impressed by his intelligence, demeanor, and wittiness. (Udall’s autobiography, Too Funny to be President, is a terrific read.) During the early part of the campaign Carter looked like a shoo-in, but as November approached Ford closed the gap and turned it into a real nail-biter. IIRC we didn’t know the winner until the next day.
By 1980 I was out on my own as an adult, and my first choice that year was Tennessee Senator Howard Baker, one of my all-time Moderate Heroes. But his campaign fizzled early, so I switched to Rep. John Anderson in the primary. Reagan was too conservative for me, and I definitely wasn’t voting for Carter, so I stuck with Anderson (and volunteered for him) during his independent bid. Although it was clear Carter was in trouble, the outcome really didn’t clarify until around September, when Carter’s support started collapsing and it became obvious that Reagan would win handily. This year reminds me a lot of 1980 except for the lack of a strong third-party candidate.
1984 was another foregone conclusion, and I didn’t pay much attention to the campaign. Still not fond of Reagan but not impressed by Mondale either, I voted for the Libertarian candidate.
1988: see 1984.
But 1992 was much more interesting. Although Bush seemed like a lock for re-election after Desert Storm, the political landscape changed as the economy slowed down. The Democratic party had been too far to the left for me for a long time, but in the primary I was attracted by Bill Clinton’s pragmatic centrism (very much in line with my philosophy of governing) and I supported and voted for him. If you’re keeping score, that was my first vote for the winner after four misses. The moral: don’t give up – eventually the political cycle will be a match for you! This campaign was interesting due to the presence of Ross Perot, but it became clear by autumn that Clinton was ahead. I was actually out of the country on Election Night and recall trying to find news reports from the U.S., and being surprised by how easily Clinton had won.
1996: I voted for Clinton again in an election that was another foregone conclusion. Dole never had a chance against a popular incumbent at a time of peace and prosperity, and everybody knew it.
What can you say about 2000? I supported Gore (who I believe would have been an excellent President), but it looked like Bush had a small but solid lead through the summer. However, Gore closed the gap, and the outcome was unclear going into Election Day. This was the first election I tried my hand at predicting, and I actually thought Gore might lose the PV while winning the EV – just the opposite of what happened! I was out of town on business the week of the election (having voted absentee, as I did in ’92) and stayed up way too late in my hotel room waiting for a winner to be declared – and then waking up the next morning and finding out that one STILL wasn’t declared. And then there was the whole controversy over the Florida recount… I’ve seen some studies that suggest that Gore would have won with a full statewide recount, others that he wouldn’t have. My take on it as an engineer: the winner truly wasn’t determinable with 100% accuracy due to the limitations of Florida’s punch-card system. So I’m not willing to say either that Gore definitely would or would not have won in a full recount. However, I do believe that the Supreme Court was wrong in not allowing one; it only makes sense to try and achieve the maximum accuracy possible, even if that isn’t perfection.
In 2004, I was originally for Howard Dean, another candidate who fit the pragmatic centrist model. I was terribly disappointed when his campaign fell apart after a promising start. In the general election, I wasn’t crazy about Kerry but really disliked Bush, so I voted for Kerry. This was another one that looked close going in, and indeed it was. I correctly predicted that Bush would win narrowly and that Ohio would be the key state. Don’t remember my full state-by-state predictions in either 2000 or 2004, though.
In the early stages of the 2008 campaign, I was for a candidate who now embarrasses me: Rudy Giuliani. Yes, I admit it, and you can laugh at me. 😊 But the Rudy of the mid-2000’s was not the pitiful wreck that Rudy is today. When he flamed out, I switched to Hillary Clinton. However, I became very impressed with Obama during the primary and wasn’t sad to see him win the nomination, and I voted for him in the general. Once the economy went south, it was obvious that Obama would win, but he exceeded my expectations; I didn’t predict him winning IN, NC, or NE-02.
2012 was an election that never seemed as close to me as it did to some other people. I always felt that Obama was comfortably ahead, and I missed only Florida – my best prediction to date. But in this election, as in most previous ones, I always felt that even if the opposition won, the country would be OK. They’d likely institute some policies I didn’t like, but the country wouldn’t suffer any major damage. I felt that way until…
In 2016 I was for Hillary from the beginning. I thought Trump’s campaign was a joke, and was flabbergasted that he got the nomination – and happy, as I thought it ensured Clinton would win. Well, we all know how that turned out. Moral: don’t root for a presumably weaker/worse candidate to win the other party’s nomination, because they can win! I won’t rehash the election itself, because most of us here remember it. My prediction in this election was my worst ever; I did believe that Trump was making some inroads among WWC voters in the Midwest, but I thought his gains would be limited to Ohio, Iowa, and possibly ME-2.
If you have any questions, feel free to ask. But also go ahead and post your own memories! It would be interesting to get different perspectives.
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