SC - Quinnipiac: Trump+1 (user search)
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  SC - Quinnipiac: Trump+1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: SC - Quinnipiac: Trump+1  (Read 6158 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: September 30, 2020, 03:33:39 PM »

Quinnipiac is quickly becoming a joke. There’s no way Trump is up 5 in Texas (or up at all) if he’s up only 1 in SC

This take (and all like it) is not sound.  The two polls are independent, and more importantly, the results are not point values!  They are the midpoints of confidence intervals.  This poll has an MoE of about 3%, so it implies anything from Biden+5 to Trump+7.  Assuming the Texas poll has a similar MoE, it would imply anything from Biden+1 to Trump+11.  There's a perfectly reasonable overlap between the two state results; for example, it might be close in Texas while Trump is up 5 or 6 in SC.

Everyone who is interested in polling needs to remember the bolded part above and stop focusing on exact results, especially when trying to compare different polls.  If you don't take this to heart and really believe it, you're never going to have a good understanding of what polls do and don't tell us.
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