2020 Poll Hype Thread (user search)
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  2020 Poll Hype Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Poll Hype Thread  (Read 191990 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #75 on: October 16, 2020, 10:46:38 AM »
At this rate, you folks are going to have the Alaska results in negative numbers.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #76 on: October 18, 2020, 08:58:28 AM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #77 on: October 19, 2020, 09:41:54 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 19, 2020, 08:48:38 AM
Quote from: VARepublican on October 19, 2020, 08:42:29 AM


Don't pollsters identify themselves when they call you? I.e., "this is Quinnipiac, will you take a survey?"

IME (having been polled many times) the callers usually identify their organization, but not always.  Sometimes the introduction is like "My name is John and I'm conducting a survey on the upcoming election.  Would you be willing to answer a few questions?"
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #78 on: October 20, 2020, 10:49:09 AM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 20, 2020, 10:32:36 AM
Just a useful reminder for all the people out there.



Current 538 averages:

Trump approval: 42.8-53.5 (-10.7)
Trump vs  Biden: 41.9-52.2 (-10.3)

Pretty close to each other.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #79 on: October 20, 2020, 10:52:55 AM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 20, 2020, 10:51:11 AM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 20, 2020, 10:49:09 AM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 20, 2020, 10:32:36 AM
Just a useful reminder for all the people out there.



Current 538 averages:

Trump approval: 42.8-53.5 (-10.7)
Trump vs  Biden: 41.9-52.2 (-10.3)

Pretty close to each other.

Why is there a big divergence with the RCP averages though?

Because RCP's averages use a strange and non-transparent methodology.  Nate Silver just had a tweet about this (talking about PA specifically, but it applies to RCP in general):
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #80 on: October 21, 2020, 08:41:37 AM »

Time to put down the keyboard and back away slowly, PQG.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #81 on: October 21, 2020, 11:06:48 AM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #82 on: October 21, 2020, 02:10:48 PM »


Guesses?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #83 on: October 21, 2020, 08:53:42 PM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on October 21, 2020, 08:51:19 PM
Quote from: brucejoel99 on October 21, 2020, 08:32:44 PM
This isn't really poll hype, but I have no idea where else it would belong:



Where was Biden up 3 in OH? Anyways, it was a pretty bad day for Trump in polls, but a little bit of a better day for Rs in the senate, though still pretty bad

He tweeted a reply correcting the Ohio error.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #84 on: October 23, 2020, 01:44:47 PM »
Quote from: darthpi on October 23, 2020, 01:43:29 PM
Quote from: Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds on October 23, 2020, 01:39:26 PM


Completely unrelated to the actual poll, but does anyone else have an implicit distrust of anything that calls itself "Action News" or is that just a me thing?

Channel 2 is one of the oldest and most reliable TV stations in Atlanta.  It's just their slogan.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #85 on: October 23, 2020, 09:20:27 PM »
Hmmm....
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #86 on: October 24, 2020, 10:54:35 AM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 24, 2020, 10:51:56 AM
Thanks guys.  Also, when do y'all suppose we'll start getting our final round of polls conducted post-debate?

Might have something for the Sunday morning shows, but early next week is more likely.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #87 on: October 26, 2020, 02:16:08 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #88 on: October 26, 2020, 03:11:42 PM »
Quote from: darthpi on October 26, 2020, 03:09:55 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 26, 2020, 02:55:22 PM
Oh god I just know the Ipsos poll will be like PA Biden +2 and meltdowns will ensue

It was Biden +5 and the meltdowns are not ensuing.

They've been postponed until the next Trafalgar release.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #89 on: October 26, 2020, 05:37:34 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #90 on: October 28, 2020, 11:33:37 AM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 28, 2020, 11:32:05 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 28, 2020, 11:31:01 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 28, 2020, 11:25:54 AM


Welp, it's either gonna be like Biden +5 or Trump +5

Heavily leaning towards the latter, but if it's the former...

Trump+5 wouldn't make all hell break loose.  I'm thinking it will be a decent Biden lead.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #91 on: October 28, 2020, 11:33:58 AM »
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on October 28, 2020, 11:26:09 AM
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) are going to have the rest of their results published at 12PM EST tomorrow. If they're tracking everything they tracked in the last survey, we'll have results for the state legislature, generic state supreme court, governorship, lieutenant governorships, state supreme court chief justice, SOPI and treasurer.

This is for NC?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #92 on: October 28, 2020, 11:35:22 AM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 28, 2020, 11:34:41 AM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 28, 2020, 11:33:37 AM
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 28, 2020, 11:32:05 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 28, 2020, 11:31:01 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 28, 2020, 11:25:54 AM


Welp, it's either gonna be like Biden +5 or Trump +5

Heavily leaning towards the latter, but if it's the former...

Trump+5 wouldn't make all hell break loose.  I'm thinking it will be a decent Biden lead.

How dare you question my pessimism, GM?

Pessimists may be right more often, but optimists have more fun. Wink
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #93 on: October 28, 2020, 11:36:17 AM »
Quote from: Beida on October 28, 2020, 11:36:00 AM
Do we know what time Monmouth is releasing?

I think they usually release at 2pm Eastern time.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #94 on: October 29, 2020, 09:58:33 AM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #95 on: October 29, 2020, 11:06:11 AM »
Not hype about an upcoming poll, but this seems like a good place to put this:
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #96 on: October 29, 2020, 03:27:29 PM »
Quote from: DKrol on October 29, 2020, 03:25:59 PM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 29, 2020, 03:19:49 PM
Quote from: Biden +3 in Texas on October 29, 2020, 02:51:15 PM


Who the f**k cares.

Aren't polls from Scott Rasmussen different from the Rasmussen Reports trash polls?

Yes, and they're significantly better.  They still seem to have a small R house effect, but nothing out of the ordinary.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #97 on: October 29, 2020, 03:45:41 PM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 29, 2020, 03:43:25 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 29, 2020, 03:27:29 PM
Quote from: DKrol on October 29, 2020, 03:25:59 PM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 29, 2020, 03:19:49 PM
Quote from: Biden +3 in Texas on October 29, 2020, 02:51:15 PM


Who the f**k cares.

Aren't polls from Scott Rasmussen different from the Rasmussen Reports trash polls?

Yes, and they're significantly better.  They still seem to have a small R house effect, but nothing out of the ordinary.
They are the RMG polls, correct?  They do seem fairly neutral.

Correct.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #98 on: October 30, 2020, 10:43:54 AM »
Quote from: SaneDemocrat on October 30, 2020, 10:42:53 AM
Way less polls than I would have expected.No fox polls last night.My theory is that a lot of these people don’t want to be wrong.

Many pollsters will wait for final releases either this weekend or Monday.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #99 on: October 30, 2020, 12:36:08 PM »

Please don't post published poll results in this thread; there's an entire subforum for those.  This thread should be for announcements/discussion of forthcoming polls.

(And I agree with you that NC is looking good for Biden.)
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