2020 Poll Hype Thread (user search)
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Author Topic: 2020 Poll Hype Thread  (Read 191991 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #50 on: September 02, 2020, 05:24:32 PM »
Quote from: Granite City on September 02, 2020, 05:18:20 PM
Last month, we had an extremely good poll for Biden from Monmouth in PA followed by something more tepid from them in GA and IA.

There’s no reason to expect the reverse to occur with NC tomorrow but I would like to see the amusing reaction from the forum.

To the more knowledgable polling gurus: is it actually a bad thing for a polling firm to be releasing seemingly contradictory polling? This would seem to be a sign of normal sampling error but “BOTH SIDES” (sorry, but for this it seems pretty accurate) seem to use it as an excuse to brush off polls and then ignore it when it’s favourable.


It's not a bad thing at all.  Polls *will* vary around the actual result, and an occasional one will be a wild outlier.  This is an inescapable occurrence in sampling.  An honest pollster releases whatever results they get, unless they find that something was flawed in their methodology (I've seen that happen at least once).  This demonstrates that they're not herding.  

I also recall a poll in the last cycle from one of the high quality pollsters (Monmouth, I think) that was an obvious outlier.  They released it anyway, but included a caveat to the effect of "we think this is an outlier, but it's what we got, so take it for what it's worth."
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #51 on: September 02, 2020, 05:42:55 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #52 on: September 09, 2020, 07:54:54 AM »


He's got to be talking about this week's Economist/YouGov poll, which should be out later today.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #53 on: September 09, 2020, 08:24:48 AM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on September 09, 2020, 08:13:25 AM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on September 09, 2020, 07:54:54 AM

He's got to be talking about this week's Economist/YouGov poll, which should be out later today.

Was that the one that was just released, GM?

Presumably so, which 538 is reporting as 52-43 Biden among LV.  But the link on their polls page just goes to the Economist/YouGov main polls page (https://today.yougov.com/topics/economist/survey-results), which doesn't show today's release yet.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #54 on: September 11, 2020, 03:06:06 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on September 11, 2020, 03:05:22 PM
Would love if NYT/Siena did weekly polls now heading into the election.

Has Nate spoken about if they're doing the live polls again?

He has said they are not doing the live polls this year.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #55 on: September 11, 2020, 03:55:07 PM »
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #56 on: September 12, 2020, 06:49:45 AM »
More on the upcoming Siena polls, which should be imminent:
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #57 on: September 12, 2020, 07:11:54 AM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on September 12, 2020, 06:57:51 AM
My god, the samples on these are ridiculous. Biden will be lucky to not be behind in all four states.

Nope, Biden leads in all: NH+3, NV+4, WI+5, MN+9.  See the polling subforum for more details.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #58 on: September 13, 2020, 10:02:33 PM »
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #59 on: September 15, 2020, 11:46:57 AM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #60 on: September 19, 2020, 02:47:01 PM »
Quote from: KaiserDave on September 19, 2020, 02:40:20 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 19, 2020, 02:36:17 PM
IA - DMR/Selzer:

45% - Trump
43% - Biden
  2% - Jorgensen
  1% - Hawkins
  1% - West
  2% - Others
  6% - Undecided

Should probably junk just to be safe because of RBG, but this is a good poll for Joe and I don't expect her death to change much.

That's a prediction.  The poll won't be released until 6pm CDT.

Everyone: it would be helpful to label predictions in this thread as such.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #61 on: September 20, 2020, 08:47:11 AM »
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #62 on: September 21, 2020, 03:42:20 PM »
MICHIGAN:
* Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll expected on Sept. 22.

NORTH CAROLINA:
* Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll expected on Sept. 22.

FLORIDA:
* Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll expected on Sept. 23.

ARIZONA:
* Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll expected on Sept. 23.

From https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN26C31N (WI/PA polls released today).
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #63 on: September 25, 2020, 04:16:27 PM »
Quote from: Forumlurker161 on September 25, 2020, 01:37:10 PM
Guys, the race is tightening. I know you don’t want to hear it, but Trump’s base is returning to the fold. Whether or not it will be enough is tough to tell, but it’s really damning that Biden seems stuck with a ceiling of 49% on the RCP national average, and recent state polls are worrisome.
This isn’t doomer-syndrome, it’s reality. Be prepared for the potential end of the American republic.

OK, doomer.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #64 on: September 26, 2020, 01:07:43 PM »
From Nate Cohn's Upshot column yesterday: "We’ll get a lot more data this weekend, including a new Times/Siena national poll, the rest of the ABC/Washington Post poll, and almost certainly more."
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #65 on: September 26, 2020, 08:28:21 PM »
Quote from: Ferguson97 on September 26, 2020, 08:13:40 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on September 26, 2020, 07:34:32 PM


So this poll should actually underestimate Biden's support right, since they oversample R's and Trump support?


Don't try to unskew polls by party ID. It's not a sound practice.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #66 on: September 28, 2020, 10:57:34 AM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on September 28, 2020, 10:51:26 AM
Quote from: Skye on September 28, 2020, 09:24:39 AM
Cohn is on fire:



When he says a couple, what else did they poll?

He hasn't said.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #67 on: September 29, 2020, 10:48:50 AM »
In case anyone is wondering, Quinnipiac usually drops polls at 2pm Eastern time.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #68 on: October 03, 2020, 08:30:55 AM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #69 on: October 03, 2020, 08:08:47 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 03, 2020, 08:07:22 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on October 03, 2020, 08:05:38 PM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 03, 2020, 07:40:55 PM
Apparently tomorrow there will be CBS/YouGov polls of PA and OH.

PA: Biden +5
OH: Trump +2

Are those actual numbers from something or a prediction?

I'm sure it's his prediction for the referenced polls.  It would be nice if people would clearly label their predictions in this thread as predictions.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #70 on: October 07, 2020, 09:46:02 AM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 07, 2020, 09:43:25 AM
Quote from: Buzz on October 07, 2020, 09:01:17 AM
Pretty confident Marquette is going to have Biden up double digits in Wisconsin later today.

Where's my NYT/Siena NV and OH polls, Buzz?!

Nate said they'll probably be released early this afternoon.  He also said:
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #71 on: October 09, 2020, 02:04:42 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 09, 2020, 02:49:31 AM
All polls from yesterday are now in the database.

Also: GA has not seen a poll in 10 days.

I just got polled by text for the presidential race from a 984 (North Carolina) number identifying itself as "Political Research".  Could be a national poll, of course.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #72 on: October 09, 2020, 06:29:15 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #73 on: October 11, 2020, 08:27:23 AM »
Quote from: swf541 on October 10, 2020, 11:40:18 PM
Given how it's worded would imply its a state with a senate race... So, Kansas, Texas, South Carolina and Alaska would seem likely possible ones.

Aren't we supposed to get some Alaska polling soon from someone?

NYT/Siena is polling Alaska, but they just started so it can't be that one.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #74 on: October 13, 2020, 12:52:35 PM »
Here's another chance for everyone who wanted NYT/Siena to poll Kansas last time:
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