2020 Poll Hype Thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Selzer/DMR poll won't release the presidential result until tomorrow (at least), but in the Senate race they have Greenfield leading Ernst 46-43.  This doesn't bode well for Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Are we sure that Selzer will release their presidential numbers today?

Not for sure.  I'm guessing that if they do, it will be at the same time as yesterday's release (6 pm CDT).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ok it's time where's our IA poll?

Looks like all they released tonight was the House district preferences (asked by party, not named candidate).

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/06/14/iowa-poll-likely-voters-prefer-democrats-3-4-u-s-house-districts/3175725001/

IA-1: D 48, R 42
IA-2: D 53, R 35
IA-3: D 52, R 36
IA-4: R 57, D 35

[GeorgiaModerate]

That averages to 47 D - 42.5 R assuming every district accounts for 25% of the vote.

Pretty close.  From the article:

Statewide, likely voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican 47% to 42% — a reversal from March, when an Iowa Poll showed 49% support for Republicans and 42% for Democrats. Nearly all respondents who made a party choice are firm with their decisions, the new poll shows. Only 2% of either side identify as only "leaning" toward one party or the other.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Are the guys at PPP still doing this thing where they ask their followers to choose which state to poll next?

Not this year so far.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1273370491974299648

[GeorgiaModerate]

A poster at Daily Kos Elections informs us that new Siena/NYT Upshot battleground state polls are in the field right now.

Did it mention which states?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Has Nate Cohn revealed if Siena is doing the live polls again this fall?

I've seen nothing about this one way or the other from him on Twitter.

[GeorgiaModerate]

No way Biden's up 16 in MN. Most I would say is 4.

"Poll disagrees with my priors, therefore it is wrong."

[GeorgiaModerate]

No way Biden's up 16 in MN. Most I would say is 4.

"Poll disagrees with my priors, therefore it is wrong."

I mean, I'd gladly take the "under" on a Biden +10 over/under in MN, and a Biden +17 from Gravis isn't changing my mind.

Looking at the 538 and Economist models, that looks like about an even bet at the moment.
TBH, I don't think Biden's up by 16 in MI either.  But a ceiling of +4 there, which is what Jopow claims, is also ridiculous.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1275499205738586114

[GeorgiaModerate]

NYT poll tomorrow is going to be a bloodbath.  Based on the national poll, if trump is up or tied in any state I would take that as a win for him (in that state)

Well, that turned out not to be anything to worry about.

[GeorgiaModerate]

CBS News just completed a poll and released some results today, but no election matchups.  However, some results have been withheld for later release, so we'll probably get them within a day or two.  Results so far: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1l0XruPxbVV8mBoT0mpmeLk4AmbnkIGeH/view

Among the results:

Generally speaking, do you feel things in America are going...

Very well 5%
Somewhat well 19%
Somewhat badly 36%
Very badly 40%

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/SusanPage/status/1278002186706878465

[GeorgiaModerate]

I wonder how much NYT/Siena paid for all the live house polls. I would definitely contribute to that. I would never contribute $2K for a Gravis poll. At that point, more worth it to just do another $5K PPP poll

That would be an interesting market experiment.  You could draw some conclusions about the quality of a pollster by seeing how much people were willing to pay them.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Incoming:

https://twitter.com/margbrennan/status/1282282395111174144

[GeorgiaModerate]

Incoming:

https://twitter.com/margbrennan/status/1282282395111174144

So...what does that mean, exactly?

It was a teaser for the CBS/YouGov polls of those states that were released yesterday morning.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1283079642119839746?s=20

Based on the fact that they pose the question of whether "there is a hidden Trump vote" in PA, I am going to assume he is doing better than most polls suggest as of now. Biden +3 is my prediction.

I could also see them saying: Is there a secret Trump vote in the Keystone State? No.

LOL! Considering they found Biden up by 10 points, apparently so. Pure clickbait language.

The Biden+10 post is Tender's prediction.  The poll isn't out until tomorrow.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Did Optimus Prime stop polling?

I haven't seen anything from them in a while.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Has anybody noticed that Biden’s polls have been down lately? His polling average hasn’t been this low since early June. Yeah I know he’s still up but it has been dropping steadily since then.

  don't seem to have much weight, while the internet polls sym to be dragging it down.

The Economist average is also quite steady.  538's has changed at least in part due to an adjustment last night in the way they treat partisan polls.  (See Nate Silver's Twitter feed for details; too long to repost here.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kansas poll Wednesday at 2 Pm

From who?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1295730014105862144

Smart.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I expect a flurry of quality national polls next weekend.  The first weekend of the month is when many of the major pollsters release monthly polls, and it also allows them to be in the field this week, the first full week following the conventions.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden is going to lead the Monmouth Poll by 11 and the Grinnell poll by 8.  This is all too predictable.

I don't often agree with you, but I'll acknowledge you hit the Grinnell/Selzer margin on the nose.

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Fox News poll later today apparently

According to Nate Silver, Fox will be releasing state polls tonight.