The 150th Edition of College Football - Discussion and Pick 'Em Thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ole Miss just lost in a way only Ole Miss can lol

What happened?  I'm watching another game.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well, Michigan is making this at least a little bit interesting.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well, Michigan is making this at least a little bit interesting.

...but not for long.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Odd score of the day: Miami of Ohio jumped out to a 5-0 lead on Ohio State.  They now trail 63-5.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Appalachian State takes down North Carolina!  (2 people picked this)

[GeorgiaModerate]

so long to UCF's streak!

And Temple got beaten up by Buffalo.  I'm sticking with my earlier statement that the AAC is down this year (OTOH, SMU did upset TCU).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Am I the only one who picked Illinois? Illinois is up 21-7 rn over Nebraska....

Yes, you are.

[GeorgiaModerate]

WEEK 4 RESULTS

Sjoyce moves into sole possession of the lead with an impressive 18 correct.

This week:

sjoyce 18

1184AZ 16
Dereich 16
GaModerate 16
Sprouts 16

ExtremeRepublican 15
Green Line 15
Jgibson 15

peenie 14
RINO Tom 14

dfw 13
Sunrise 13

Illiniwek 12


Despite the Pac-12 shenanigans, we managed to improve from an average of 13.1 last week to 14.8 this week.

There were five unanimous picks.  Texas was the only one we got right!

UCF-Pitt
SMU-TCU
Oklahoma State-Texas
Colorado-Arizona State
UCLA-Washington State

There were four games with one dissenter.  The dissenter was wrong in all of them.

Central Michigan-Miami
South Carolina-Missouri
Notre Dame-Georgia
Nebraska-Illinois


Total to date:

sjoyce 69

RINO Tom 65

ExtremeRepublican 64
GaModerate 64

Dereich 62
Sprouts 62

Green Line 61
JGibson 61

SunriseAroundTheWorld 60

1184AZ 57
Illiniwek 57
peenie_weenie 57

dfw 56

People who haven't played every week:

Ninja0428 49
YE 28
Coastal Elitist 17
tmthforu94 17
Gorguf 13

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wow. American Conference football between two teams that may not see a bowl this year* is such a treat on a Thursday night. Who would've guessed?

*Yes, Tulane will probably beat one or both of the service academies to get a bowl bid, but I am holding out hope.

I think the AAC is going to be down this year compared to the last few.  UCF for one isn't as good as their ranking would indicate (although I still believe they'll beat Pitt).  

clip

I must have been using data that was from earlier than Week 4. I still had my unsaved spreadsheet up from where I sorted the data so I plugged in the new "SP+" published this morning straight from the new source. Navy did not play this week, but the numbers LOVE Navy all of a sudden [+15.8 Y:Y], so I guess I may have been right that they looked oddly low. Memphis, SMU and Tulane also made big jumps last week with Houston being the only big decline - even Temple only dropped by 0.9 despite my awful projection of improvement. The new conference average ranking is 0.65, a move of +3.69 from last year's final!

For the record, the ACC is 4.55, or 2.64 without Clemson so about 2 points higher. Just by kicking out UConn, the American will jump to 2.85 though!

In summary: the AAC without its worst team is a hair better than the ACC without its best team.  I can believe that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wow. American Conference football between two teams that may not see a bowl this year* is such a treat on a Thursday night. Who would've guessed?

*Yes, Tulane will probably beat one or both of the service academies to get a bowl bid, but I am holding out hope.

I think the AAC is going to be down this year compared to the last few.  UCF for one isn't as good as their ranking would indicate (although I still believe they'll beat Pitt).  

clip

I must have been using data that was from earlier than Week 4. I still had my unsaved spreadsheet up from where I sorted the data so I plugged in the new "SP+" published this morning straight from the new source. Navy did not play this week, but the numbers LOVE Navy all of a sudden [+15.8 Y:Y], so I guess I may have been right that they looked oddly low. Memphis, SMU and Tulane also made big jumps last week with Houston being the only big decline - even Temple only dropped by 0.9 despite my awful projection of improvement. The new conference average ranking is 0.65, a move of +3.69 from last year's final!

For the record, the ACC is 4.55, or 2.64 without Clemson so about 2 points higher. Just by kicking out UConn, the American will jump to 2.85 though!

In summary: the AAC without its worst team is a hair better than the ACC without its best team.  I can believe that.

I wouldn't normally consider the latter, but it is indeed less than a year away from happening Big East! Big East! Big East!

wait what

UConn is kicked out of the American at year-end in order to rejoin the Big East for basketball and all other sports. They intend to be an independent following the UMass model of taking $2 million paydays from the SEC powers each year.

Oh I thought you meant Clemson would leave the ACC

Well, the AAC has an opening....

[GeorgiaModerate]

Arizona State @ Cal
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma
Northwestern @ Wisconsin
Rutgers @ Michigan
Texas A&M @ Arkansas
Kansas @ TCU
Central Michigan @ Western Michigan
Clemson @ UNC
Ole Miss @ Alabama
UVA @ Notre Dame
USC @ Washington
Indiana @ Michigan State
Wake Forest @ Boston College
Iowa State @ Baylor
Minnesota @ Purdue
Mississippi State @ Auburn
Kansas State @ Oklahoma State
Stanford @ Oregon State
NC State @ Florida State
Kentucky @ South Carolina
Washington State @ Utah
UCLA @ Arizona
Hawai’i @ Nevada

Montana @ UC Davis
Northern Iowa @ Weber State

My home team bias might be getting out of hand.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nice knowing you, Justin Fuente. Move over Coach Pruitt. There's a new #1 on the hot seat.

What happened to Fuente?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I will never understand the Pac 12....

Somebody here said the other day that the best method for picking Pac-12 games was to determine who you thought should win, then pick the other team.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It doesn't matter how bad Arkansas is, TAMU always struggles with them lol

Everybody picked Texas A&M.

(Also Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Michigan, Clemson, Alabama, Michigan State, and Auburn.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ole miss leads 10-7 now

I'm not getting my hopes yet but that would be beautiful if it holds up.

[GeorgiaModerate]

UNC now leads Clemson 14-7.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Amazing catch by the UNC receiver just short of the goal line.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Amazing catch by the UNC receiver just short of the goal line.

Followed up by a TD and stupid two point convert call.

I like the two-point call there.  Let's say the PAT conversion rate is about 95% and the 2-point conversion rate is X.  Let's assume that if you go to OT, you have a 50% of winning (although against a much higher rated team, it could be assumed to be even less).

If you kick, you have a 95% x 50% = 47.5% chance of winning.  With a two-point conversion, you have an X chance of winning.  (This ignores the fact that in cases like this the other team has some time left to win, but that occurs in either case so I don't think it affects the overall calculation).

So if you think your chance of converting the 2-pointer (X) is greater than 47.5%, you should go for it.  I can't find stats for college football, but in the NFL the 2-point success rate is about 60%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia Tech lost to Temple 24-2.  Is there a worse P5 team than Tech?

[GeorgiaModerate]

When Baylor wins....we all lose

Well, not all of us.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sjoyce is 15 out of 16 so far today; he's only missed Montana over UC Davis.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Auburn looks incredible tonight.  SEC homer me is trying to argue that the playoff should be only SEC teams this year.

I'm OK with that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Amazing catch by the UNC receiver just short of the goal line.

Followed up by a TD and stupid two point convert call.

I like the two-point call there.  Let's say the PAT conversion rate is about 95% and the 2-point conversion rate is X.  Let's assume that if you go to OT, you have a 50% of winning (although against a much higher rated team, it could be assumed to be even less).

If you kick, you have a 95% x 50% = 47.5% chance of winning.  With a two-point conversion, you have an X chance of winning.  (This ignores the fact that in cases like this the other team has some time left to win, but that occurs in either case so I don't think it affects the overall calculation).

So if you think your chance of converting the 2-pointer (X) is greater than 47.5%, you should go for it.  I can't find stats for college football, but in the NFL the 2-point success rate is about 60%.

I was less meaning the decision to go for two than the play call they drew up was terrible.

Oh, in that case I agree with you.

[GeorgiaModerate]

WEEK 5 RESULTS


Sjoyce won again with an amazing 22 (he only missed Stanford and the two FCS games) and extended his overall lead.


THIS WEEK:

sjoyce 22

Dereich 21

GeorgiaModerate 20

1184AZ 19
peenie 19
Sprouts 19

ExtremeRepublican 18
Green Line 18
Illiniwek 18
RINO Tom 18

Jgibson 16

dfw 15

Sunrise 11


As a group we averaged 18 right, the most since week 0/1.  There were eight unanimous picks (Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Michigan, Texas A&M, Clemson, Alabama, Michigan State, and Auburn) and we got them all right.  There were two games with a single dissenter: Kansas-TCU and Virginia-Notre Dame.  The dissenter was wrong in both.


OVERALL STANDINGS:

sjoyce 91

GeorgiaModerate 84

Dereich 83
RINO Tom 83

ExtremeRepublican 82

Sprouts 81

Green Line 79

JGibson 77

1184AZ 76
peenie_weenie 76

Illiniwek 75

dfw 71
SunriseAroundTheWorld 71

People who haven't played every week:

Ninja0428 49
YE 28
Coastal Elitist 17
tmthforu94 17
Gorguf 13

[GeorgiaModerate]

Mike Leach rips 'fat, dumb' Washington State players after loss