Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[GeorgiaModerate]

North Carolina: Emerson, May 31-June 3, 932 RV

Approve 41
Disapprove 52

Trump also has terrible head-to-head results in this poll.  I'm somewhat skeptical about the sample, which seems too highly educated (54% with a college degree).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico weekly tracker, May 31-June 2, 1997 RV

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (-2)

Strongly approve 23 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-2)

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, would you definitely vote to re-elect Donald Trump, probably vote to re-elect Donald Trump, probably vote for someone else or definitely vote for someone else?

Definitely Trump 27
Probably Trump 10
Probably someone else 8
Definitely someone else 47

GCB: D 45, R 36

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, June 2-4, 1500 adults including 1192 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 50 (+1)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 37 (-2)

2020: Generic D 40 (nc), Trump 36 (nc)

RV:

Approve 45 (+1)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

Strongly approve 29 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-2)

2020: Generic D 46 (-3), Trump 41 (+2)

GCB: D 45 (-3), R 41 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, May 15-30, 1017 adults (prior poll May 1-12)

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist, May 31-June 4, 944 adults including 783 RV (prior poll April 24-29)

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 49 (-4)

Strongly approve 28 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 36 (-2)

RV:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 49 (-5)

Strongly approve 29 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-3)

2020 (RV only):

Definitely vote for Trump 36 (+3)
Definitely vote against Trump 51 (-3)
Unsure 13 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist, May 31-June 4, 944 adults including 783 RV (prior poll April 24-29)

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 49 (-4)

Strongly approve 28 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 36 (-2)

RV:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 49 (-5)

Strongly approve 29 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-3)

2020:

Definitely vote for Trump 36 (+3)
Definitely vote against Trump 51 (-3)
Unsure 13 (+1)

Uh-oh, looks another Trump "surge!"

I'd suggest amending the originial post to clarify that the "Definitely vote for/etc" numbers are for registered voters.

In other words, while Trump is 43-49 in approval he's 36-51 on voting intention. Confirms what we've seen in other polls. I wonder if this is just a quirk or something for him to seriously worry about.

That's why I put it in the RV section.  If there were an equivalent result for the general adult population (there isn't one) I would have put that one in the Adults section.  But I guess it could be ambiguous so I'll add a clarification.

[GeorgiaModerate]

IBD/TIPP, May 30-June 7, 906 adults (1-month change)

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 52 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, June 7-9, 1991 RV (1-week change)

Approve 41 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 22 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+2)

This isn't their full weekly tracker; it just has a few questions about the Hyde Amendment and Biden's support of it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Global Strategy Group, May 31-June 3, 1113 RV (1-month change)

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Strongly approve 21 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+1)


Trump is fit/unfit to serve as President:

Fit 41 (-3) - feel strongly 26 (-4)
Unfit 59 (+3) -  feel strongly 47 (+5)


An interesting question that I haven't seen before --

Which do you agree with more:  As president, Donald Trump has been better/worse than I expected when he got elected

Better 42 (strongly 22)
Worse 58 (strongly 40)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, June 6-10, 1214 RV (3-week change)

Approve 42 (+4)
Disapprove 53 (-4)

A big bump for Trump.  But the head-to-head matchups tell a different story:


Biden 53, Trump 40
Sanders 51, Trump 42
Harris 49, Trump 41
Warren 49, Trump 42
Buttigieg 47, Trump 42
Booker 47, Trump 42

[GeorgiaModerate]

Seventeen states and one Congressional district were decided by 10% or less in 2016 ...

You have 17 states colored-in on your map, but two (not one) Congressional Districts.
Is it one or two Congressional Districts?

Trump won NE-02 by 2.24% and ME-02 by 10.29%. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, June 9-11, 1500 adults including

Adults:

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 49 (-1)

Strongly approve 25 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 39 (+2)

2020: Generic D 39 (-1), Trump 36 (nc)

RV:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 30 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+2)

2020: Generic D 46 (nc), Trump 41 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 46 (+1), R 40 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, June 9-11, 1500 adults including

Adults:

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 49 (-1)

Strongly approve 25 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 39 (+2)

2020: Generic D 39 (-1), Trump 36 (nc)

RV:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 30 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+2)

2020: Generic D 46 (nc), Trump 41 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 46 (+1), R 40 (-1)

Could this be a tarriff bump? Never thought I would say tarriffs could help, but i think Mexico caving threw Trump a bone and benefited the economy

What bump?  This is noise-level fluctuation.  His net approvals in both groups improved by 1%.  OTOH, his strong approvals in both declined by a net 1%. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News, June 9-12, 1001 RV (1-month change)

Approve 45 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 29 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-3)

2020:

Biden 49 (nc), Trump 39 (+1)
Sanders 49 (+3), Trump 40 (-1)
Harris 42 (+1), Trump 41 (nc)
Warren 43 (nc), Trump 41 (nc)
Buttigieg 41 (+1), Trump 40 (-1)

Do you think the Trump campaign coordinated with the Russian government during the 2016 presidential election, or not?

Yes 50 (+6)
No 44 (+2)

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-6-16

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC/WSJ, June 8-11, 1000 adults (prior poll April 28-May 1)

Approve 44 (-2)
Disapprove 53 (+2)

Strongly approve 29 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kentucky: Gravis, June 11-12, 741 LV

Approve 60 (strongly 48)
Disapprove 37 (strongly 27)

Trump 57, Biden 37
Trump 57, Sanders 35
Trump 60, Buttigieg 28
Trump 60, Warren 28

[GeorgiaModerate]

Firehouse Strategies/Optimus, June 11-13 (change from March)

Pennsylvania (587 LV):

Approve 46 (+3)
Disapprove 49 (nc)

Michigan (565 LV):

Approve 45 (-2)
Disapprove 50 (+1)

Wisconsin (535 LV):

Approve 44 (+3)
Disapprove 51 (-3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kaiser Family Foundation, May 30-June 4, 1206 adults (change since late April)

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (+4)

Strongly approve 28 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Firehouse Strategies/Optimus, June 11-13 (change from March)

Pennsylvania (587 LV):

Approve 46 (+3)
Disapprove 49 (nc)

Michigan (565 LV):

Approve 45 (-2)
Disapprove 50 (+1)

Wisconsin (535 LV):

Approve 44 (+3)
Disapprove 51 (-3)

Who are these guys?

Some former Republican operatives.

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC, June 13-19, 1116 adults

Approve 38
Disapprove 60

Was 38/61 last month.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Emerson, June 21-24, 1096 RV (1-month change)

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 48 (-1)

Biden 55, Trump 45
Sanders 55, Trump 45
Warren 53, Trump 47
Buttigieg 52, Trump 48
Harris 52, Trump 48

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico weekly tracker, June 21-24, 1991 RV

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

I wonder how the Iran thing is going to go. Are people thinking it was some sort of shrewd brinksmanship or just another childish game?

Are people thinking that Trump is actually "improving" or is this still just statistical noise? If Trump's standing is "improving", who is giving him credit for improving? Do people really just think they have more money now?

I think it's just noise.  The 538 average has stayed in a very narrow range (with occasional blips) since the end of the government shutdown in February.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, June 22-25, 1500 adults including 1111 RV


Adults:

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 48 (-1)

Strongly approve 25 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 37 (-2)

Generic D 38 (-3), Trump 35 (nc)


RV:

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 51 (nc)

Strongly approve 29 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-1)

Generic D 46 (-3), Trump 40 (-1)

GCB (RV only): D 46 (-1), R 40 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

An interesting tidbit in that Maine poll is that Susan Collins is at 48/48 approval...17/24 strongly.