Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1162584719957082113

[GeorgiaModerate]

And another high-quality pollster weighs in...

NBC/WSJ, Aug. 10-14, 1000 adults (1-month change)

Approve 43 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+3)

Strongly approve 29 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+4)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1163081384640024576

[GeorgiaModerate]

One really has to wonder what Trump's approval would look like with a recession thrown in to the mix

There's a nontrivial chance that we're going to find out.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos
JUL 16-22, 2019
3,879 RV

Approve 44%
Disapprove 54%

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/12/4809/4766/Topline%20Reuters%20Race%20Poll.pdf

Odd that the poll was conducted back in mid-July, and they are just now releasing the results.
Does anyone know why?

Looks like it was for this story about voters' racial attitudes that was just released today: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-race-poll/for-trump-appeals-to-white-fears-about-race-may-be-a-tougher-sell-in-2020-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKCN1V90TX.  The approval question is secondary.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Unhappy with the result, Trump says there is "something going on" with the Fox poll:

"Well, Fox has always given me -- I'll tell you, Fox is a lot different than it used to be, I can tell you that. ... Fox has changed. And my worst polls have always been from Fox. There's something going on at Fox, I'll tell you right now. And I'm not happy with it."

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/19/politics/donald-trump-fox-news/index.html

As I posted in another thread, this is the Trump filter:

Good numbers for Trump = real.  Bad numbers for Trump = fake.

It applies to polls, economic news, or anything else.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A poll of a key demographic: suburban women.

Public Opinion Strategies (R), Aug. 7-8, 530 women RV in CO-6, KS-3, NC-9, PA-1, and VA-10

Approve 35
Disapprove 61

Strongly approve 27
Strongly disapprove 55

GCB: D 51, R 33 (42/25 "definitely")

U.S. going in the right direction 28
U.S. on the wrong track 65

Trump approval among white women (n=~430): 40/56 (31/50 strongly)

Trump approval among independent women (n=~130): 32/63 (19/55 strongly) CAUTION: small subsample size

[GeorgiaModerate]

Arizona: OH Predictive Insights, Aug. 13-14, 600 LV

Approve 47
Disapprove 52

In their previous poll (May), approval was 50 but I don't have the disapproval number.  In October, it was 54/46.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Colorado: Emerson, Aug. 16-19, 1000 RV

Approve 39
Disapprove 54

R: 80/11
D: 9/90
I: 34/57

[GeorgiaModerate]

Arizona: OH Predictive Insights, Aug. 13-14, 600 LV

Approve 47
Disapprove 52

In their previous poll (May), approval was 50 but I don't have the disapproval number.  In October, it was 54/46.

Amazing to see Arizona zoom to the left of Nevada (rolls eyes at Gravis).

I thought this was actually OH.

Trump's numbers among independents are horrible across the board.

I always think the same thing with this pollster.  I wish they'd change their name.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Arizona: OH Predictive Insights, Aug. 13-14, 600 LV

Approve 47
Disapprove 52

In their previous poll (May), approval was 50 but I don't have the disapproval number.  In October, it was 54/46.

Amazing to see Arizona zoom to the left of Nevada (rolls eyes at Gravis).

The approval number in the new Gravis NV poll is suspect (the crosstabs make no sense at all), which is why I didn't post it here.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Can someone share some light into why (over the last month of so) Rasmussen has suddenly "turned" on trump approval numbers, and is more in-line with the other pollsters?
What changed with them? I mean the difference is big.

This is purely speculation, but I think the most likely explanation is that they've finally adjusted their LV screen after its awful performance in the midterms.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Aug. 16-18, 1998 RV (1-week change)

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (+1)

Strongly approve 24 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 43 (nc)

Biden 42, Trump 35
Sanders 40, Trump 35
Warren 35, Trump 35
Trump 35, Harris 32
Trump 35, Booker 28
Trump 36, O'Rourke 27
Trump 35, Buttigieg 27

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN/SSRS, Aug. 15-18, 1001 adults including 886 RV (prior poll June 28-30)

Adults:

Approve 40 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

RV:

Approve 41 (-4)
Disapprove 54 (+3)


This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since the government shutdown.

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG economic survey (monthly), Aug. 17-20, 1100 adults including an unspecified number of RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (-1)

RV:

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 56 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Aug. 17-20, 1500 adults including 1111 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 50 (nc)
 
Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-1)

Generic D 40 (-2), Trump 36 (+1)

RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

Strongly approve 28 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-2)

Generic D 48 (-2), Trump 40 (+1)

GCB (RV only): D 47 (-1), R 39 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data tracker (weekly), Aug. 19-20, 1117 adults including 985 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 55 (+3)

Strongly approve 21 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+2)

RV:

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

Strongly approve 23 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC, Aug. 15-19, 1058 adults (change from June)

Approve 36 (-2)
Disapprove 62 (+2)

R: 79/20
D: 5/95
I: 31/65

Strongly approve 21 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+3)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since the shutdown.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Monmouth:

40% Approve (-1)
53% Disapprove (+3)

Source

A few more details: Aug. 16-20, 800 adults including 689 RV (change from June).

Adults:

Approve 40 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+3)

RV:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Florida: St. Pete's Polls, 8/21-22 (1,941 RVs)

Approve 48
Disapprove 49

R: 80/18
D: 18/79
I: 45/52

Lean R.

Deplorables gonna deplorable.

The State of Deplorida.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Emerson, Aug. 24-26, 1458 RV (1-month change)

Approve 43 (-2)
Disapprove 52 (+6)

Biden 54, Trump 46
Sanders 52, Trump 48
Warren 50, Trump 50
Harris 50, Trump 50
Trump 51, Buttigieg 49

[GeorgiaModerate]

Emerson, Aug. 24-26, 1458 RV (1-month change)

Approve 43 (-2)
Disapprove 52 (+6)

Biden 54, Trump 46
Sanders 52, Trump 48
Warren 50, Trump 50
Harris 50, Trump 50
Trump 51, Buttigieg 49

Probably just passed over an outlier. Trump is neither terribly unpopular or popular at all.

Yeah, the prior 45/46 was probably a mild outlier; the two before that (early July and late June) were 44/48 and 43/48.  The 52 disapproval in the current poll is their highest since January.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2019/08/28/2020-biden-leads-democrats-voters-dread-election/2120726001/

Suffolk, Aug. 20-25, 1000 RV (change from June)

Approve 44 (-5)
Disapprove 54 (+6)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3638

Quinnipiac, Aug. 21-26, 1422 RV (1-month change)

Approve 38 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 27 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 50 (+3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3638

Quinnipiac, Aug. 21-26, 1422 RV (1-month change)

Approve 38 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 27 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 50 (+3)

50% strongly disapprove?
Unless Trump can restore his reputation as a "rainmaker", he will lose. By a lot.

True, but keep in mind that Q has been very D-friendly lately.  I'd knock a few points off of that (but even adjusted, it's still bad).