Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN/SSRS, June 28-30, 1613 adults including 1466 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

RV:

Approve 45 (+2)
Disapprove 51 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, June 19-30, 1018 adults (2-week change)

Approve 41 (-2)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 29
Strongly disapprove 44

(No priors for "strongly")

Should Trump be impeached and removed from office?

Yes 45
No 53

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, June 30-July 2, 1500 adults including 1265 RV


Adults:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 49 (+1)

Strongly approve 23 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 39 (+2)

Generic D 43 (+5), Trump 34 (-1)


RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (+2)

Strongly approve 27 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+2)

Generic D 49 (+3), Trump 39 (-1)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (+2), R 39 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Washington Post/ABC News, June 28-July 1, 1008 adults including 875 RV (change from late April)

Adults:

Approve 44 (+5)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 32 (+4)
Strongly disapprove 45 (nc)

RV:

Approve 47
Disapprove 50

This is Trump's best-ever approval in this poll. There were also several GE matchups polled; see https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=323675.0 for details.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The poll has a D+6 sample, electorate in both 2016 and 2018 was D+4 according to exit polls, so this ABC poll is bit dem heavy in terms of sample.

Haha, no.

Look at the sample in the poll, its available on page 11 of it, 23% GOP, 29% dem, 37% Independent, that is a D+6 sample.

With independents being larger than either party here, that comparison is meaningless.

FWIW, I checked their previous polls, and this sample is in line with most of them over the last year except for the one before this, which was a bit more R-friendly:

Date D R I
7/7/19 29 23 37
4/25/19 29 26 36
1/24/19 32 24 37
11/1/18 32 25 35
10/11/18 33 26 35
8/29/18 33 25 37
4/11/18 32 25 35

The simple fact is that more Americans identify as Democrats than Republicans.  This has been true for some time now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The simple fact is that more Americans identify as Democrats than Republicans.  This has been true for some time now.

When was the last time it wasn't true? I'm almost 46, and I don't remember it ever being any other way.

In the graph at https://www.people-press.org/interactives/party-id-trend/, it looks like the last time was during the Clinton administration, although it was very close for a while under GW Bush.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Emerson, July 6-8, 1100 RV (2-week change)

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 48 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP, July 3-8, 604 RV (change from May 1)

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-4)

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP, July 3-8, 604 RV (change from May 1)

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-4)

With multiple polls showing slight improvement, has Trump actually done a better job being president?

I think it's fair to say that the trend in Trump's approval rating has shown a small increase recently.  This doesn't necessarily mean he's done a better job.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, July 7-9, 1500 adults including 1140 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (-1)
Disapprove 51 (+2)

Strongly approve 25 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+1)

Generic D 41 (-2), Trump 34 (nc)

RV:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 30 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+2)

Generic D 49 (nc), Trump 38 (-1)

GCB (RV only): D 47 (-1), R 38 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC/WSJ, July 7-9, 800 RV (1-month change)

Approve 45 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 32 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-2)

Biden 51, Trump 42
Sanders 50, Trump 43
Warren 48, Trump 43
Harris 45, Trump 44

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC/WSJ, July 7-9, 800 RV (1-month change)

Approve 45 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 32 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-2)

Biden 51, Trump 42
Sanders 50, Trump 43
Warren 48, Trump 43
Harris 45, Trump 44

Isn’t that where his RV usually is?

Yes, it's a typical number from NBC/WSJ, which has been one of Trump's better pollsters.  Their last 10 (approx. monthly, newest first):

45/52 (32/42)
44/53 (29/44)
46/51 (29/41)
43/53 (30/43)
46/52 (31/43)
43/54 (29/47)
43/54 (27/44)
46/52 (32/45)
47/49 (30/43)
44/52 (29/45)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico weekly tracker, July 12-14, 1984 RV

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (nc)

Strongly approve 23 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-2)

Definitely vote for Trump 28
Probably vote for Trump 8
Probably someone else 8
Definitely someone else 45

GCB: D 44, R 35

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, July 14-16, 1500 adults including 1140 RV

Adults:

Approve 44 (+4)
Disapprove 48 (-3)

Strongly approve 26 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (nc)

Generic D 39 (-2), Trump 37 (+3)

RV:

Approve 46 (+3)
Disapprove 51 (-2)

Strongly approve 30 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-2)

Generic D 46 (-3), Trump 42 (+4)

GCB (RV only): D 47 (nc), R 40 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, July 14-16, 1500 adults including 1140 RV

Adults:

Approve 44 (+4)
Disapprove 48 (-3)

Strongly approve 26 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (nc)

Generic D 39 (-2), Trump 37 (+3)

RV:

Approve 46 (+3)
Disapprove 51 (-2)

Strongly approve 30 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-2)

Generic D 46 (-3), Trump 42 (+4)

GCB (RV only): D 47 (nc), R 40 (+2)

Do you think people are rallying behind Trump's racism or is this just noise?

Could be either; I don't like to draw conclusions from a single poll (outliers happen, and this pollster is not immune to them).  Let's see what other polls look like, and especially what this one looks like in its next couple of weekly samples.

EDIT: Sample differences may explain at least part of the Trump bump from last week to this week:

Last week-

Northeast 17%
Midwest 23%
South 34%
West 25%

Liberal 32%
Moderate 26%
Conservative 30%
Not sure 12%

This week –

Northeast 19%
Midwest 22%
South 38%
West 21%

Liberal 29%
Moderate 28%
Conservative 32%
Not sure 11%

[GeorgiaModerate]

Still stable

Kind of ironic when nothing else about Trump is.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NPR-PBS-Marist National:

44% Approve (+3)
52 Disaprove (+3)

41% Srongly Disapprove (+5)
29% Stronlgy Approve (+1)

Source

Those numbers are among all adults.  Among RV it's

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (+3)

Strongly approve 30 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+4)

[GeorgiaModerate]

More from the NPR/Marist poll:

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1153343240306864129

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG monthly economic survey, July 17-20, 1100 adults

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Among RV it's 40/58 (I don't have this for the previous month)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico weekly tracker, July 19-21, 1992 RV

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

Strongly approve 23 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+2)


As you may know, the crowd at President Trump’s rally in Greenville, N.C., chanting “send her back” in reference to Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), a naturalized U.S. citizen who was born in Somalia. Would you say that this chant was...

Racist 58
Not racist 27

Very offensive 51
Somewhat offensive 16
Not very offensive 8
Not offensive at all 14

Very inappropriate 56
Somewhat inappropriate 15
Not very inappropriate 7
Not inappropriate at all 11

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, July 21-23, 1500 adults including 1212 RV

Note: last week's poll appeared to be a Trump-friendly outlier compared to previous weeks.

Adults:

Approve 41 (-3)
Disapprove 51 (+3)

Strongly approve 24 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+1)

Generic D 42 (+3), Trump 35 (-2)

RV:

Approve 45 (-1)
Disapprove 52 (+1)

Strongly approve 29 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+1)

Generic D 49 (+3), Trump 41 (-1)

GCB (RV only): D 47 (nc), R 40 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data tracker, July 22-23, 1118 adults including 963 RV (1-week change)

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Strongly approve 23 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (-3)

RV:

Approve 42 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

Strongly approve 25 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News, July 21-23, 1004 RV (prior poll June 9-12)

Approve 46 (+1)
Disapprove 51 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

With the morning consult numbers here's where I see the race right now.

That's a pretty good map.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, July 25, 1992 RV

(Comparison is to their most recent weekly tracker, but this poll is not part of that series.)

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 57 (nc)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+1)