Emerson - Nevada (Everyone, but Biden, trails Trump)

[GeorgiaModerate]

This poll gives Trump a 49% approval rating in Nevada—much higher than the same poll had in recent months.

Whether you believe it or not, his improved performance here is linked to a 49% approval.

Yes, and it's very inconsistent with Emerson's other recent results:

US (Mar 17-18): 43/50

PA (Mar 26-28): 41/51
IA (Mar 21-24): 42/51
WI (Mar 15-17): 41/49
MI (Mar 7-10): 40/52
SC (Feb 28-Mar 2): 50/44

Outliers happen.  I have no doubt this is one of them.

[GeorgiaModerate]

After so many years, people still don't learn their lesson about NV polling.

NeVaDa PoLLs aRe iNacCuRaTe, sO tHe 2012-2018 and 2016-2018 R tReNd DoEsN’t MaTtEr.

Maybe you'd have a point if there was an R trend.

there literally was an R trend in 2016.

From 2016 to 2018 Nevada trended D.

Not really.

In 2016 it was D+2 around. It was around +4.5(senate +5 Gov+4.1 the other races were a bit closer). Nation went from D+2 to D+8 or 9.

Even house went from D+1 in 2016 to D+6 in 2018.

Thats the definition of an R trend lol.

You really have to twist numbers to make that an R trend. How some people are able to convince themselves that a 5 point shift towards Democrats is the definition of an R trend is beyond me.

But thats literally the definition of a trend. It moved right compared to the rest of the nation. For example NC moved left in 2016 to the rest of the nation despite swinging R. Trend does not mean swing.

No, it's not.  Unsurprisingly, some states trend more than others.  By your logic, any state that trends less than the average amount toward one party, is trending toward the other party.  This is completely nonsensical. 

Let's turn it around: suppose that in the next election, the national average is R+20.  Some states are R+30, while others are R+10.  Did the R+10 states trend D?  Of course not; they trended R, but the trend was less than the average.

Basically, if a state is D+(any significant number), it trended D.  If it's R+(any significant number), it trended R.  That's the definition of trend.

[GeorgiaModerate]

After so many years, people still don't learn their lesson about NV polling.

NeVaDa PoLLs aRe iNacCuRaTe, sO tHe 2012-2018 and 2016-2018 R tReNd DoEsN’t MaTtEr.

Maybe you'd have a point if there was an R trend.

there literally was an R trend in 2016.

From 2016 to 2018 Nevada trended D.

Not really.

In 2016 it was D+2 around. It was around +4.5(senate +5 Gov+4.1 the other races were a bit closer). Nation went from D+2 to D+8 or 9.

Even house went from D+1 in 2016 to D+6 in 2018.

Thats the definition of an R trend lol.

You really have to twist numbers to make that an R trend. How some people are able to convince themselves that a 5 point shift towards Democrats is the definition of an R trend is beyond me.

But thats literally the definition of a trend. It moved right compared to the rest of the nation. For example NC moved left in 2016 to the rest of the nation despite swinging R. Trend does not mean swing.

No, it's not.  Unsurprisingly, some states trend more than others.  By your logic, any state that trends less than the average amount toward one party, is trending toward the other party.  This is completely nonsensical. 

Let's turn it around: suppose that in the next election, the national average is R+20.  Some states are R+30, while others are R+10.  Did the R+10 states trend D?  Of course not; they trended R, but the trend was less than the average.

Basically, if a state is D+(any significant number), it trended D.  If it's R+(any significant number), it trended R.  That's the definition of trend.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html

This is literally the defintion of trend as used by atlas forum. Look at 2016 trends.

OK, I'll concede the point.  I think the problem in the discussion, though, is confusion between the terms swing and trend (and I'll admit I was one of those mixing them).