GA-SEN 2020 Class II Megathread (Perdue inc.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

What is with GA always getting these megathreads?

Because we're a fascinating state, of course.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Tilt R, Perdue 50-48 in runoff

In the runoff, there are only two candidates. Perdue could win 51-49 there, but not 50-48, because there'd be no one to get the 2% of third-party votes.

There is always the chance of blank/spoiled ballots, also using rounding

There will be very few of these.  Overvotes for the same race are prevented by the voting machine, I believe.  And blank entries will be minimal with this being the major race (and possibly the only one) on a runoff ballot.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wasn't Sarah Riggs Amico supposed to jump in weeks if not months ago?

She was "exploring" a bid.  I guess she hasn't found it yet.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Andrew Young endorses Tomlinson.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/scottwongDC/status/1227636310107656192
Roy Moore is doubtless very disappointed that he's not hitting the teens.

I mean that’s heartening for the good of the republic (not so much for the FF Doug Jones) but this is the Georgia Senate megathread...

They're not supposed to know we're annexing Alabama.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Perdue will win 55-44.

I think he'll win, but it will be a lot closer than that.  Maybe 52-47.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Perdue will win 55-44.

Only way Perdue wins by 10 is if Trump wins GA by 7-8. Barring major scandals (I don't think insider trading qualifies in GA, frankly) he won't outperform Trump by more than 2-3 points.

On the flip side, do you buy into the "Georgia is a tossup in 2020" narrative?

Tossup, no. Competitive, yes. I'll call it Lean R - meaning that I expect Trump to win the state, but would not be surprised if Biden takes it as part of a significant overall win.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I haven't paid too much attention to the Georgia races, but is it fair to say Dems totally bombed recruiting here? Ossoff and some random pastor? Yikes.

Seriously? Random pastor? He's the pastor of a very famous, influential church where MLK was once pastor. He's well-known and seems to be running a great campaign.

Anyway - bringing this back to the Class II seat - is Ossoff considered the likely nominee or is Tomlinson believed to have a shot? She seems like the better GE option to me but I haven't seen any polling on the primary.

Ossoff led Tomlinson and Amico 31-16-15 in a recent AJC/UGA poll.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It looks like this primary is finally starting to take normal shape, as we're getting now daily reports of ad buys from both Ossoff and Tomlinson. Only Amico seems to still be dark.

Any Georgians have any idea what the campaigns look like on the ground, to the extent that on the ground campaigns are possible?

I've gotten a text from the Ossoff campaign and have seen his TV ads.  Haven't seen anything from Tomlinson or Amico yet, but then I'm not getting out much.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fulton County polls will remain open until 9pm per order of the county Superior Court.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What is Perdue at? I only see a total for Trump.

Nobody filed to run against Perdue.

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP has called it for Ossoff, per this AJC article.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is probably a dumb question, but why wasn't there a jungle primary of all the candidates regardless of party?

No, you're thinking of the special election for the Class III seat (Kelly Loeffler).  That will be held as part of the general election on Nov. 3.  If no candidate gets a majority (almost certainly the case) the runoff will be held on Jan. 5.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Greg Bluestein of the AJC tweeted earlier this morning that Bourdeaux is now at 49.3%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Very interesting Observation:
Donald Trump and David Perdue basically were running UNOPPOSED in the GA Republican Primary.

With 93.71 % of Precincts reporting according to the GA SoS Office

Donald Trump 870,042 Votes

David Perdue 906,183 Votes

A 36K Undervote in the POTUS Race.

That suggests to me that Georgia is legitimately in play when it comes to the Presidential Race while Perdue will win Reelection.

And we will see this in November all over the Country that Republican Senate Incumbents will outperform President Trump just like a lot of GOP Incumbents did in 2016.

That's why I think Perdue, Tillis will have a greater than 50 % Chance getting reelected. Moderate Republicans don't like Trump BUT they won't everything to the D's.

There were early votes for the Presidential primary only, because before the postponements it was on a different, earlier date than the other primaries.  Reportedly some counties are counting those early-early (presidential only) ballots last.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Normally, I'm wary of rerunning losers. Even if they're great fundraisers like Ossoff, there's still a part of me that's hesitant.

GA is so tribal and partisan I don’t think it matters who we run. Stacey Abrams and the voter suppression stuff has Black people ready to turn out for whoever and we know the hicks are coming out full force to protect Trump. GA is going to be high turnout regardless. I think we are getting a runoff between Warnock and Collins and that’s going to be just as epic as the November general. What a time to be alive.

No way is Warnock going to win a Runoff in January especially if the Senate is already decided one way or the other. I remember the ballistic Democratic Trolls over at DailyKos in 2008 when the believed Jim Martin would pull off a Runoff Victory against Saxby Chambliss. How did that turn out?

You're citing what happened twelve years ago as a predictor for a hypothetical runoff?  The state has changed a lot since then.  I'm not saying that Warnock would necessarily be favored, but it wouldn't be a slam dunk for Collins.

[GeorgiaModerate]

With all but 3 Precincts left to report according to the GA SoS Office Senator David Perdue has 43K more Votes than Trump.

Perdue: 958,560

Trump: 934,773

I'd say right now that Perdue is in better shap in his own Reelection Race compared to Trumps Quest to hang on to GA 15 Electoral Votes.

You should read the disclaimer at the top of the SOS results website that says ballots cast for the March Presidential Primary haven't been added to the totals at this point.

He might also want to buy a calculator.   958,560 - 934,773 = 23,787 (not 43K)

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think they're worried.  I've suddenly been getting a ton of anti-Ossoff mailers.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does anybody else feel like Perdue's 'I need to set the record straight' 10-15 second ads reek of desperation?

Yep.  When you're explaining, you're losing that battle.