Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1100841727500394496

[GeorgiaModerate]

Have the primary, runoff and GE dates already been set for NC-9, as the thread title shows ?

I think only the date for the other special election has been set, right ?

Yes, I don’t have it handy but all the dates for NC9 have been set.

Well, apparently they weren't, but are now.  According to https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/north-carolina-sets-new-primaries-general-election-in-scandal-plagued-9th-congressional-district/2019/03/04/ccfec0a8-3ea1-11e9-9361-301ffb5bd5e6_story.html, primaries will be May 14.  If no runoffs are needed, the special general election will be Sep. 10.  If a runoff is needed (no candidate gets >30%) then that would take place on Sep. 10, and the GE would be pushed back to November.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I love how NYT currently needs 9 different colors for the GOP map.

The Democratic presidential primary is going to be a challenge for them.

[GeorgiaModerate]

McCready internal poll: race tied at 46 each.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Are you trying to turn bedwetting into a haiku or something?

This should be the Atlas motto.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1167527052335038464

[GeorgiaModerate]

We're getting a lot of new polls today for this race, apparently. New poll has McCready leading 46-42.

I think Trump's approval is off in it, 48-47 disapproval seems like it's underestimating Trump's support.

Bishop is an A tier candidate
he outta win well
I call bullsh@t on that poll, likely R race
strong Lean R at best for team blue
this is a crititcal race for the GOP
which is why they are fighting hard and will win it
If McCready loses, overall it is no big deal for team blue
if Bishop somehow manages to f#ck this up and lose, it will be a big f#cking deal
so the GOP won't drop the ball on this one
the dem spirit just is not there

I expect Bishop to win by 4-5 points now.

Is this, like, three or four haikus strung together?

EDIT: Dammit. And here I thought it was being so clever

Would three haikus strung together be called a triku?

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's time for a haiku of my own!

Dan Bishop will win
Undecideds will break R
As they always do

Haikus are easy
But sometimes they don't make sense
Refrigerator

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does anyone know when the RRH NC-09 poll will be released?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Early voting extended in hurricane-impacted counties.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Great recap here about what to look at going into Tuesday

Terrific article, thanks for posting it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Dan will win.

Bold prediction!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Yeah, it's entirely symbolic.   It won't affect what happens in Congress at all.

I'd say most special elections are like this, except the ones for Senate seats.

The sad thing is, even if McCready wins, he's going to have to go right back to campaigning again, which will mean by 2021, he'll have been campaigning for like 3 years straight. That is something out of a nightmare.

Well, he'll have lots of practice.

[GeorgiaModerate]

You know Republicans are worried when they want to give people more time to vote.

I'm not seeing the recommended button on this post, but Recommended.

I had an issue recently where I wasn't seeing the Recommend button on anything.  It turned out that my overly aggressive ad blocker was eating it.  Whitelisting the site fixed it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1171472829339947008

[GeorgiaModerate]

Any results pages?

Links at the top of the page.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So I was talking to some people in the office today about this race

None of them knew it was happening or remotely knew anything about it

“Why do you care about an election in NC” they asked

They are right, but I love following this stuff. Lol

In the grand scheme of things, this is a totally meaningless event in the long run

Unless you live in the district

Those normies will never understand us Atlasians.

While true, I do think if you follow current events, you should know about this race.

Although it is getting barely any press. Maybe 10-15% of Americans know about it probably

I think that's at least an order of magnitude too high.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1171574120800280576

[GeorgiaModerate]

New NCSBE Totals with some ED vote:

Dan McCready 48,571
Dan Bishop 41,466
Jeff Scott 302
Allen Smith 167

Really low third-party vote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Whichever candidate wins (and right now I'd bet on Bishop), I think the key message is that the results were very similar to 2018.  Of course you can't extrapolate one district to the whole country, but if Democrats do about as well next year as they did in '18, I'll be quite happy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't know how many of you can try to spin this into a good night dor the Democrats. $6M spent so you can lose by more than you lost in 2018 (McCready) and to have lost more ground in almost the entire district says to me that the Republicans have made an improvement over 2018. Also in NC-03, Muephy outperformed Trump's margins. This election night told me that some of the swing voters that voted against the GOP in 2018 have shifted back to the GOP as of now. Also, North Carolina showed us that many of the areas where Trump managed to help shift margins in 2016 definitely were shifted again. Robeson, Anson, Bladen, and Richmond counties all looked good compared to pre-2012 still for the GOP. Just my take.

It's a good night because Trump won this by 12% in 2016, and by the end of provisionals, McCready will likely have only lost by 1.5%, compared to 0.4% in 2018, so nearly the same result. Not to mention that he did even better in the suburbs, which will continue to spell trouble for Trump and the GOP in 2020.

Also, Bishop was a much better candidate than Harris.

Predictably, Trump is now tweeting that Bishop was "down big in the polls" but still won:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1171758532280143873

Were there any polls that showed Bishop "down big"?  The average was very close.