2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Except Wasserman has the NPV already at D+6 right now. What accounts for the difference with NYT?

No idea.  The NYT figures were the most current that I could find.  Maybe Wasserman is already factoring in the uncounted California votes?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I redid the popular vote assumption using Wasserman's current numbers instead of NYT's, and allocating it the same way (4 million outstanding votes divided 70% D, 30% R) would increase the D margin from 6.4% to 7.9%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rasmussen publishes a pathetic defense of their GCB results: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/november_2018/how_we_did_and_why_we_did_it.  Summary:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Rasmussen publishes a pathetic defense of their GCB results: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/november_2018/how_we_did_and_why_we_did_it.  Summary:

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why doesn't anyone critcize CNN here?
They had a +13 GCB and im expecting a higher GCB than polls due to unopposed districts so CNN had an unfair advantage IMO.

A number of people here pointed out at the time that the late Rasmussen R+1 and CNN D+13 polls were both unlikely outliers, and you could probably get a good prediction by averaging them -- which looks to be pretty close at this point.  The difference now is that CNN isn't trying to defend their outlier.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1064570610506973184

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harry Enten reports that the least accurate 2018 GCB pollster was, to no one's surprise, Rasmussen:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Harry Enten reports that the least accurate 2018 GCB pollster was, to no one's surprise, Rasmussen:

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Wasn't the adjusted D lead something like D+7 only ?

There were a lot of races which had no Republicans running and therefore were uncontested.

Uncontested races shouldn't exist. They just distort the results.

Still, Rasmussen was the worst though.

If the GCB polls included voters in those districts with uncontested or one-party races (I have no idea if this is the case), then no adjustment is necessary or appropriate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Good news: a 2020 GCB poll.

Bad news: it's Emerson.

Emerson, Dec. 6-9, 800 RV

D: 46
R: 44

[GeorgiaModerate]

HarrisX/Scott Rasmussen (not affiliated with Rasmussen Reports) is running a daily 2020 GCB poll at https://scottrasmussen.com/congressional-ballot-percentages.  It's a 3-day average and updates at 6 a.m. Eastern time every weekday.  The current numbers are:

D 43
R 35

[GeorgiaModerate]

Mark Kelly getting closer to a run: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/425897-mark-kelly-considering-senate-bid-as-arizona-dems-circle-mcsally

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1086352029059108864

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1086292286525374464

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1086316610779049984

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Nicole Malliotakis is challenging Max Rose

She won Staten Island with over 70% in 2017, though that was more a rebuke of de Blasio. Rose will be much tougher to dislodge though she is a strong candidate.

yikes

this might move the race to Likely R. Joining OK-05 and UT-04 in the near certain Democratic losses for 2020.

Why are OK-05 and UT-04 already considered Dem losses?

Solid oscillates between wild optimism and wild pessimism for the Democrats.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Former Fulton County Commission chairman John Eaves (D) has filed to run in GA-07.

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP has the generic ballot at D 51, R 40: https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/PPP_Release_National_40119.pdf

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1113553017570242560

[GeorgiaModerate]

Peters is not comparable to Bill Nelson. He's managed to raise almost $2M in the first quarter - that indicates that he's taking this race seriously. Nelson slept until August/September 2018 because he thought Scott would be weak like Harris or Mack IV. Peters may be boring/anonymous, but you don't become the only Democrat in an twelve-person freshman Senate class without real political skills.

Michigan is also a lot kinder to Democrats than Florida, considering that there are NO statewide elected Republicans there (out of five positions), in comparison to Florida, where there is only one statewide Democrat (out of six). Agree that he's probably the second-most vulnerable Senate Democrat after Jones, but there is a HUGE gap between the two. Bear in mind that Republicans haven't won a Senate race in Michigan since the 1994 R wave, and that the Senator who won that year lost to Stabenow in 2000.

Bill Nelson also raised 2 Million in Q1, and continued raising massive amounts (in addition to outside PACS). He had over 3.6 million on hand after Q1. Just saying, don't undervalue John James.

James is a B-lister and Peters [unlike Stabenow] isn’t asleep at the wheel; this race is is Likely D at worst.

Sorry but no. We don't know what kind of a year 2020 will be. Michigan is clearly swinging away from us and assuming a close election, this could be quite competitive

I think Lean D is fair until we see how the race unfolds further (polling, who announces, national environment, etc.). There bizarrely seems to be two camps on Atlas regarding MI-Sen: one that thinks Peters is safe and one that thinks he's the next Bill Nelson/incredibly weak incumbent who is destined to lose

I mean, Lean D makes sense if you think Trump will lose(which is a big possibility) but I just can't see Peters winning and Trump Winning MI at the same time.

If it’s 2016-esque close I can easily see that happening.

I don't think Michigan will even be 2016 close unless we have a weak Democratic nominee (which is possible, but I don't think Sanders will be the nominee).  Pennsylvania was a fluke; I think we'll be good there against Trump.  Michigan depends on who we nominate, but if we lose Michigan then we were never going to win.  Minnesota and Wisconsin worry me more than Michigan and Pennsylvania tbh.  Florida and ME-2 are probably fool's gold though (certainly not tipping point states).

MN is basically fools gold, the close race there is because Dems thought it was Safe D and just did not turn out

This reminds me of Charlie Cook's #analysis that MN is more competitive than MI and NH

NH, MI, and PA are Tossup

MN is Lean D

Trump approval ratings in NH:

WMUR, Feb 13: 41/57
Emerson, Feb 22: 43/52
Morning Consult, March 1: 42/55
ARG, March 28: 34/58

New Hampshire is not a tossup.

[GeorgiaModerate]

GA-06 and GA-07 1Q fundraising (buried in https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/the-jolt-you-can-beat-something-with-nothing-tom-price-now-says-obamacare/w5qT9PWcfUqpzkdO9n9W0M/):

GA-06:

-- State Sen. Brandon Beach, a Republican, says he will report about $125,000, largely from two fundraisers while he was in the legislative session.

-- Former congresswoman Karen Handel, a Republican, reported that she raised nearly $250,000 and has slightly more than $330,000 on hand including some leftovers from her 2018 campaign.

-- U.S. Rep. Lucy McBath, a Democrat, says she will report raising more than $475,000 and has nearly all of that money still in her campaign coffers.

GA-07:

-- Carolyn Bourdeaux, a Democrat and last year’s runner-up, said she’s raised $350,000 in the seven weeks since she announced her comeback bid.

-- Marqus Cole, a Democrat, reported raising about $32,000, with half of that on hand.

-- Nabilah Islam, a Democrat, reported raising about $100,000 with roughly $75,000 on hand.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rep. Lucy McBath (GA-06) turned down a $2k contribution from Rep. Ilhan Omar:

Up in D.C., the conservative Free Beacon has pointed to a $2,000 campaign contribution that U.S. Rep. Illhan Omar, D-Minn., reported making to fellow freshman Democrat Lucy McBath of Marietta.The website noted that McBath did not report the contribution – which is true. The McBath campaign told us this morning that the contribution was not accepted.

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/the-jolt-peachtree-city-ordinance-would-permit-libel-suits-against-critics/K4Xt15TUWCG9MaUAr5FmCN/

Probably a smart move.  The district has a substantial Jewish population.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Former Home Depot exec Lynne Homrich is the first Republican to file in GA-07.  There are currently four Democrats in the race.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, April 19-21, 1992 RV

Generic Congressional ballot: D 45, R 34

I think this is the first double-digit lead I've seen from anyone for the 2020 GCB.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1122882526404587520

[GeorgiaModerate]

Former CIA Officer and notirious anti-semite Valerie Plame running for NM-03:

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1126496160456134656?s=20

If you're going to mangle people's quotes, you should at least spell check the result.