2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters weekly, week ending Nov. 4, 408 LV

D: 50 (+1)
R: 40 (-3)

This is the pollster that's been typically bearish on Democrats this year, right?

Perhaps somewhat bearish, but on the whole they've been really bouncy. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

So yesterday we were high off hopium. Today we are are back in Dems in Disarray mode. How many more times will we change back and forth until Tuesday?

27, with a MoE of 3.8.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1059194100199682049

[GeorgiaModerate]

It seems like there has been a small but distinct move toward the Democrats in the last few days, especially in the most competitive districts.

[GeorgiaModerate]

HarrisX (for Scott Rasmussen), Nov. 2-4, 3000 adults registered voters including 2295 likely voters and 1890 "definite" voters (change from Oct. 30-Nov. 1)

Adults RV: D 45 (+2), R 38 (+1)

LV: D 51 (+5), R 41 (-1)

Definite voters: D 52 (+3), R 40 (-2)

EDIT: The original poll of 3000 is registered voters, not adults in general

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lol!

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059252213153964032

Looks like he’s been reading this thread too.

It's been a theory for a long time that Nate Silver is secretly an Atlas user.

There was a poster a few years ago whose writing style seemed like a perfect match for Harry Enten.  Haven't seen him post in a long time, though.

[GeorgiaModerate]

From 538:




It's remarkable how parallel the lines have been.  All that's really happened is that they've both trended upward the last couple of months as undecided voters have made up their minds.

[GeorgiaModerate]

For anyone interested in a good laugh, Rasmussen/POS have the GCB at R +1.

I'm beginning to think their LV screen is some variation of "are you a Republican?"

[GeorgiaModerate]

USC Dornsife/LA Times, Oct. 28-Nov. 3, 2521 LV (change from last week)

D: 56 (-1)
R: 41 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The real Rassy, aka Scotty 2 Hotty, with HarrisX has it at D+12:

Democrats 52%
Republicans 40%

Source

The thread is moving too fast.  I posted that last night (#586) and it's already two pages back.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So we have polls showing everything from D+15 to D+3 and even R+1? What the hell?

If we just look at the A-rated pollsters:

ABC/WaPo D+8
IBD/TIPP D+9
NBC/WSJ D+7
CNN/SSRS D+13

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hedging our bets, I see

please vote Republican on November 6

Did you actually knock on doors or did you stick to posting memes and running a subreddit?

I don't run any subreddits. I run something else.

Anyway, I have knocked on many doors, but they were for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Cynthia Nixon

You supported AOC and decided to 'walk away' days later??

Pics or it didn't happen.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I haven't cared about a Morning Consult, Ipsos, YouGov, Rasmussen, Harris, etc poll all cycle and I am not going to start now.

Yep. I am feeling considerably happier than at the same time yesterday when we had just gotten the NBC/WSJ and ABC/WaPo D+7 and D+8 polls.

What a difference a CNN D+13 and an IBD/TIPP D+9 poll makes.

The only thing that can send me into sweats at this point is if FOX or some other quality live phone pollster suddenly comes out of nowhere and drops a D+5 poll on us or something like that.

But I don't really care what the internet/robopollsters say that much.

If the margin is really in the 8-9 range, you would expect occasional polls around D+13 and D+5.  So don't panic if a D+5 comes up even from a top pollster.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059479363501125633

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1059536769421660160

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1059537374844280833

[GeorgiaModerate]

Slew of new polls. Most noteworthy is Weak Gun Control Candidate McBath up 6-

https://twitter.com/healthcarevoter/status/1059498776157659136?s=21

Looks like GA-6 and MI-8 are flipping, and the other 4 are tossups.

These are Change polls, so....

Very true, although with the number of anti-McBath ads on ATL TV lately, it seems like Handel may be running scared.

[GeorgiaModerate]

 Bookmarking this thread for feedback on Wednesday.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1059564806087282688

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup’s last CGB: D+11 https://mobile.twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1059812562517348352/photo/1

Nice!

A majority of respondents (50-44) believe Republicans are going to keep the House. This measure has always aligned with the actual result. Let's hope this year it aligns with delusion and fake news.

One word: 2016

Technically, that's at least two words (twenty sixteen, two thousand sixteen, etc.)

I'll get my coat.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup’s last CGB: D+11 https://mobile.twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1059812562517348352/photo/1

This should bump the GCB over 9 on 538 and maybe over 8 on RCP, if they include it.

8.7 on 538 (50.7-42.0)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup’s last CGB: D+11 https://mobile.twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1059812562517348352/photo/1

This should bump the GCB over 9 on 538 and maybe over 8 on RCP, if they include it.

8.7 on 538 (50.7-42.0)

Doesn't look like they have included it (yet?)

They did.  You can see it added today on the Latest Polls page.  On the GCB page, click "Show More Polls" to see it; because the sample period is a little older (Oct. 15-28) it's not near the top.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So Wasserman already has the House PV margin at about 6 points, and that's with tons of votes from California left to count. How high do you think it could get?

Probably about 7%, maybe a bit more.  8 seems like a stretch.

Incidentally, if the Democrats end up with 232-233 seats, they would also be about +7% in number of seats, so the PV and seat distribution would match pretty closely.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Should I just change 2018 to 2020 in the thread title and have this one rollover for 2020's GCBs? Thread seems small enough to keep it going tbh.

I don't feel strongly either way about it, but it seems likely that we'll get very few GCB polls for a while.

[GeorgiaModerate]

There are over 4 million ballots left to count in California that are heavily Democratic. 2 points is definitely doable.

Well, going by the NYT results page (which was just updated a few minutes ago) the current popular vote is:

D: 52,873,404 votes (51.4%)
R: 48,130,531 votes (46.8%)

The sum of those two is 101,003,935 (98.2%), so the total vote including other candidates so far is about 102,855,331 (plus or minus a bit due to rounding), so there are about 1,851,396 (1.8%) for others.

If we assume there are 4 million votes outstanding and give the Democrats a very generous share, let's say D 70%, R 30%, others 0, that adds 2.8 million D and 1.2 million R, making the new totals:

D: 55,673,404
R: 49,330,531
O: 1,851,396

Total: 106,855,331.  This would make the percentages:

D: 52.1%
R: 46.2%
O: 1.7%

In this scenario, the margin would increase from D+4.6% to D+5.9%, a gain of 1.3%.