Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

She is not investing her money in yard signs. She is investing in field. People have been calling voters and knocking doors for months. Things will be ramping up soon. The only thing Kemp yard signs show is that he has money to spend on them.

Cagle had a lot of signs leading up to the run off too. So there's that.

ETA: Gente 4 Abrams have launched their General Election operation. They will be pushing out the vote in the Latinx communities in DeKalb, Gwinnett, Cobb, Fulton, and Hall counties. Excited to see all these grassroots organizations investing in communities both sides have written off and getting them to the polls themselves.

I think people underestimate how important yard signs can be. Sometimes undecideds will vote for the candidate with the most signs in their neighborhood because they feel that is who everything else is comfortable with.

I don't think yard signs do a whole lot (or we'd have Congressman Ossoff), but I agree that they may at least get the candidate's name out there.  Something I've complained about recently is that Abrams seemed to have gone quiet -- no TV or radio ads, signs, or other outreach that was visible to me.   Kemp has been mostly unopposed with TV ads during the times/stations I watch, although last night I did finally see an Abrams ad on channel 11.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just got a very quick robopoll from an Atlanta number, asking how likely I was to vote, who I was voting for in the Governor's race, and my age group and gender. 

(If it seems like I get polled a lot, it's probably because I (a) have a landline, and (b) usually don't mind answering it even from unfamiliar numbers.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Judge says no paper ballots for this year

[GeorgiaModerate]

The absentee ballot push looks to be great strategy--especially for the minority population centers.  I spoke with a lady today working DeKalb County--they have received close to 7000 ballots so far.

How does that compare to previous years?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I mentioned this in the special election megathread too, but for those that don't read it:

There will be a new special in GA HD-28 on December 4 to replace a previous result that has been invalidated due to many voters receiving the wrong ballots (more than enough to overcome the razor-thin margin in the original election).  This is a Republican primary, but effectively a general election because no Democrat was running in this very conservative district.

https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/redo-georgia-house-election-ordered-after-voters-cast-wrong-ballots/P3r7UmYVpsOAZMQoBin9vI/

[GeorgiaModerate]

The absentee ballot push looks to be great strategy--especially for the minority population centers.  I spoke with a lady today working DeKalb County--they have received close to 7000 ballots so far.

How does that compare to previous years?

I don't know--it sounded pretty good!

Have they received actual ballots or just applications for a ballot?

According to this there were 8,283 votes by mail in DeKalb in 2014 and Jason Carter won 66 percent of them.

It is applications, not ballots received (my bad).  They are running almost double at this point in 2014.  Of course, many applications are never sent/not in time, but we could be looking at 15,000 ballots by Election Day (and I would think a higher percentage than Jason Carter's 66), as this is a specific voter strategy by the Abrams campaign.

Cool! And the VBM applications were specifically sent to low propensity voters who skip midterms, so I don't think a significant increase in vote by mail in Abrams-friendly territory would be cannibalizing the early in person voting or Election Day voting at all.

I feel like the "cannibalizing the election day vote" thing is a total myth in the first place, honestly.

The GA-06 special election would like a word.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Joe Biden will campaign with Abrams in Atlanta next Thursday.

[GeorgiaModerate]

BTW, how are they able to break VBM ballots down by race and gender like that?

Demographic info is collected when you register here.  I believe this is a VRA requirement.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1046260657585295360

[GeorgiaModerate]

If the Abrams campaign doesn't contact me by October 15, I will select Brian Kemp on my absentee ballot

Don't make me come up there with my pepper spray

If you can wrestle me to the ground, I will vote for Stacey Abrams

Virginia vs. DTC cage match.  At stake: the Georgia governorship.

I'd buy a ticket.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/PattyArquette/status/1047582879524556801

[GeorgiaModerate]

The AJC takes a look at the two Georgia counties with the largest partisan shifts in recent years: Gwinnett for the Democrats, Brooks for the Republicans.

https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/meet-the-two-georgia-counties-with-the-state-biggest-partisan-shifts/IW2xbxGHKOpimeIfXvKhiO/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia Votes now has a feature that breaks down the vote by each individual county.

For example, here's what it says about Newton County where I live:

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When it comes to gender right now females have outvoted males 59.3-39.2 and by race blacks have outvoted whites 68.4-19.6

So Abrams is more than likely KILLING it here right now.

When do the debates start?

I think there are two, Oct. 23 for the Atlanta Press Club and Nov. 4 for WSB-TV.

[GeorgiaModerate]

And to make it a bit simpler to look at, here are the VBM percentage shifts between 2014 and 2018 only for counties with more than 50,000 people:

Code:

COUNTY	% Higher/Lower Than 2014
Jackson	1472.7
Clayton	518.7
Lowndes	500
Whitfield	468.2
Camden	347.8
Rockdale	287.8
Henry	281.3
Douglas	272
Houston	267.6
Cobb	        264.2
Bartow	231.4
Spalding	228.8
Paulding	218.8
Forsyth	194.4
DeKalb	185.6
Barrow	182.5
Newton	178
Gwinnett	174.6
Cherokee	168.8
Fulton	165.4
Effingham	157.8
Bulloch	156.9
Clarke	136.9
Chatham	136.4
Richmond	128.7
Walker	100
Carroll	97.8
Catoosa	97.2
Floyd	92.4
Walton	89.8
Glynn	81.1
Gordon	70.9
Columbia	50
Coweta	46.4
Troup	26.8
------------------
Bibb	        -10.9
Fayette	-26.2
Hall	        -54.3
Muscogee	-100
Dougherty	-100
Liberty	-100

What's up in Jackson County?  Did it have a very low prior to cause that ridiculous spike?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1049476363714027520

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1049637647738699776

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/brian-kemp-is-blocking-53k-applicants-from-registering-to-vote-most-of-them-black

[GeorgiaModerate]

Griff, was there any flooding there? There are still weeks to go before the election, so if it didn't do any major damage, it shouldn't hurt turnout too much, although those people might end up voting later than usual. It's also a good thing Abrams is doing a huge VBM push too I suppose, since returning a ballot in the mail is generally much easier than casting a vote in-person.

Hope everyone dodged a bullet tho

There's a lot of damage in southern (especially southwestern) Georgia.  Not much here in metro ATL (some down trees and minor local flooding) and probably even less in Griff's turf, which is even further north.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/LawyersComm/status/1050507434815614976

Wasn't there an injunction that stopped the exact match in 2016, or am I misremembering?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Obvious voter suppression against rural whites. Glad to see you reporting this very important information!

Can't wait to see your GA gubernatorial "model" on election night, it just worked so well in Alabama last year!

I think that saying about glass houses applies here...

My 2016 presidential prediction was the 3rd most accurate on Atlas, thank you very much.

Huh, really? I'll take your word for it I guess. How'd you go from that to overestimating Republicans by 10+ points in every election?

According to this forum circa October 2016, I was overestimating Republicans by 10 points. Basically, I knew there was a shy Trump vote that the polls weren't picking up, just like there's a shy GOP vote the polls aren't picking up. This will look far more like 2002 than 2010.

A "shy" vote in the sense of respondents lying to pollsters is negligible.  The primary cause of an underestimate of Trump and the GOP in 2016 was the actual electorate not matching the pollsters' models.  Why do you think something similar will happen in 2018?  (Note: "because it happened in 2016" is not by itself a sufficient answer.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1050868748092153856

[GeorgiaModerate]

I just got a robopoll with preference questions about the Governor, LG, and AG races, favorability questions for Trump, Kemp, and Geoff Duncan (Republican LG candidate), and a few demographic questions. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

How are you guys voting on the amendments? I’m definitely voting yes on 1, probably no on 2-4, and probably yes on 5

I could go either way on 4 (it pretty much already exists in state law, so it seems unnecessary to make it an amendment).  Agree on the others.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Now a question as a non-Georgian too lazy to look back in the thread, what are the 5 Amendments up for votes and what would they do?

Good summary here: https://www.allongeorgia.com/georgia-state-politics/breakdown-the-5-constitutional-amendments-on-the-november-2018-ballot/