Fallout from Trump tariffs

[GeorgiaModerate]

A couple of stories seen today:

Three Arkansas companies say they'll close unless given exemption from steel tariffs

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Ohio factory thought it could bring U.S. jobs back from China; instead, tariffs may cause it to lose business

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Internal White House analysis finds tariffs will hurt U.S. economy

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[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/crampell/status/1005498290413228033

[GeorgiaModerate]

Billions in U.S. solar projects shelved due to Trump tariff on panels

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[GeorgiaModerate]

A great example of the ripple effects of tariffs: http://www.philly.com/philly/business/trump-commerce-paper-mill-newsprint-tariffs-20180612.html

Summary: a private equity firm that owns a paper mill in Washington State petitioned the government for a tariff on Canadian newsprint, to try and increase the mill's value.  The administration imposed a tariff that has led to a 30% increase in the cost of newsprint.  U.S. newspapers, many of which were already struggling, are laying off staff as a direct consequence of the increased costs.  Industry executives say that job losses may be in the thousands.  The mill employs 250 people.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Washing machine prices jump 17% in three months as a result of Trump tariffs: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trumps-tariffs-are-already-backfiring/2018/06/14/896b6c5a-700d-11e8-afd5-778aca903bbe_story.html

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[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1007597370891268096

[GeorgiaModerate]

Bloomberg: Trump’s Tariff Threats Are Paralyzing American Business

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Missouri company, largest remaining U.S. nail manufacturer, loses 50% of business due to tariffs and may be forced to close.

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[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

General Motors says new wave of Trump tariffs could force U.S. job cuts

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP: Another motorcycle maker considers moving output overseas

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Industry expert: Trump tariffs on auto imports could raise car prices by $5K

[GeorgiaModerate]

An import tax is just a tariff by another name. Why in hell would calling it an import tax be more diplomatic?

No way this would fly with Republicans in Congress.  It contains the dreaded T-word.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/sdonnan/status/1014935756882763777

[GeorgiaModerate]

And the stock market is up the past two days.  We all have heard about all the stores that are closing but unemployment is at a record low and companies can't find people to work.  So, when exactly does the **** hit the fan?  Ever?

There is not a single economist from either side of the aisle that believes the US will come out of this trade war unscathed. The jobs report released this morning showed the unemployment rate ticking up to 4%.

And didn't your mother ever tell you that stock markets are not accurate indicators of economic growth?

The tick up to 4% was caused by more people joining the labor force.  It's not an unhealthy sign.

538 has a nice visual representation of the current labor market at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/jobs-report-growth-unemployment/.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The tariffs aren't designed to help everyone, only those who are in key swing states.

So because Trump won Iowa and Ohio in one election, they're now safe R?

The problem with Donnelly's point is that U.S. tariffs might be designed to help certain states, but that strategy works only if there's no retaliation.  Other countries are targeting their tariffs specifically to hurt Trump-supporting regions; for example, U.S. soybean prices have cratered, and the 30 largest soybean-producing CDs all voted for Trump.  It's folly to think that the U.S. could impose tariffs and not provoke retaliation.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Soybean prices tumbling? My thoughts and prayers are with the soybean farmers who voted for this upon themselves.

U.S. Soybean Prices Crumble as Trade War Sparks Brazil Rally

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[GeorgiaModerate]

BMW to shift some SUV production to China as a result of tariffs

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Could someone remind me again how this is supposed to help the U.S. economy?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Karma:

Some MAGA hats made in China may increase in price because of tariffs

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sen. Ron Johnson: Trump's trade policies starting to do permanent damage

(This is a bit surprising; I would have expected it from Flake or Corker, but not Johnson.)

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In the same interview, Johnson said that Harley-Davidson was right to move some of its production overseas.

[GeorgiaModerate]

From the WSJ: Whirlpool sought and welcomed tariffs on washing machines.  But the retaliatory steel & aluminum tariffs have raised its costs, and as a result the company is worse off than before, with its share price down 15%.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/whirlpool-wanted-washing-machine-tariffs-it-didnt-plan-for-a-trade-war-1531757621

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1019687903159554049

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1020301570502811649

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/melovely_max/status/1020257925577748480