Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 17-19, 1500 adults

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hes at 49/50 on Rasmussen, so hes probably talking about Rasmussen. He has also tweeted about his Rasmussen numbers multiple times this week.

Edit: If Trump had good internal numbers, I'm positive they would be "leaked".

In the 538 average, Trump is currently at 40.3/54.3 (-14.0).

One week ago: 40.8/53.2 (-12.4).

One month ago: 40.7/53.5 (-12..

One year ago: 42.0/52.0 (10.0).

[GeorgiaModerate]

For the last week or so it seems like Trump has been losing ground in net approval, while the generic Congressional ballot has been getting closer.  But before that, just the opposite was true for a while; Trump was improving and the GCB was widening.

I don't know if this has any significance, but it seems odd.

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG, April 17-20, 1100 adults

Approve 38 (-1 from March)
Disapprove 56 (nc)

Approval of Trump's handling of the economy: 35/58, compared to 39/54 last month.  Reaction to tariffs?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 38 (-1)
Disapprove 57 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News polls have been been remarkably consistent:

21-23 Jan 18: 45%/53%
10-13 Feb 18 43%/53%
18-21 Mar 18 45%/52%
22-24 Apr 18 44%/53%

The only time its ever actually fallen out of that range was October.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2018/04/25/fox-news-poll-results-425.html

35. How likely do you think it is that Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation will find that Donald Trump committed criminal or impeachable offenses?

Extremely 19
Very 16
Somewhat 21
Not at all 37
Don't know 8

So 56% think it's at least somewhat likely Mueller will find that Trump committed a criminal or impeachable offense.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac:

Voters disapprove 54-39 of the job Trump is doing (52-41 earlier this month.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2538

Nikki Haley's job approval as UN Ambassador in that poll is pretty impressive: 63% approve / 17% disapprove.  Even among Dems, she's up 55% / 23%.

Is that consistent with other polls?  Because I haven't actually paid attention to her poll #s before.

I've seen some surveys for Cabinet (and Cabinet-level) officials.  Haley and Mattis generally get quite favorable results, but nobody else.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harris Interactive, April 22-24, 1549 RV (change from last month)

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (nc)

Strongly approve 21 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, April 19-25, 9688 adults including 8455 RV

Among adults:

Approve 45 (+1)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 25 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (nc)

Among RV:

Approve 47 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 28 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, April 19-25, 9688 adults including 8455 RV

Among adults:

Approve 45 (+1)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 25 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (nc)

Among RV:

Approve 47 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 28 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)

Wow, those are some Rasmussen numbers at RV. Suggest that Rasmussen might not be such a big outlier after all.

Damn it Limo.

FWIW, SurveyMonkey has an even lower 538 rating than Rasmussen (C- vs C+).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 22-26, 2321 adults

Approve 39 (nc)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Either he's talking about Rasmussen or he's applying his +9 rule to another unnamed poll.

Edit: If there were a GOP internal with Trump polling above Obama, there's no way in heck it wouldn't be plastered on Fox News right now.

Trump's approval rating by Rasmussen on their last two polling days, April 26 & 27: 47/52

Obama's approval rating by Rasmussen on April 26 & 27, 2010: 47/52

Source

[GeorgiaModerate]

Donald J. Trump
‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump

Just got recent Poll - much higher than President O at same time....Well, much more has been accomplished!

lmao

I can't for the life of me understand how he is rationalizing that in his head. It only makes sense if he thinks tax reform was so big and so meaningful that it trumps everything Obama did, which in his first 2 years, was decently substantial. Obviously I wish it had been more, or at least different things, but it wasn't nothing. And Trump can't use Gorsuch as an excuse here either, because Obama had two justices of his own, and Gorsuch wouldn't have even been an option had his party decided that stealing scotus seats was maybe a step too far if they ever want to have reasonable relations with Congressional Democrats.

Meanwhile, with Republicans, literally all they've done is a scam tax bill that is leaving us deeper in debt and little else, rolling back some regulations, and passing budgets that their own party seems to hate. This is all on top of them essentially planning on doing nothing for most/all of 2018!

It's these kinds of little pointless and easily disproven lies that make me question why his supporters stand by him. He lies about everything, even the little things that do not matter.

In his delusional head, Trump has single-handedly prevented a major terrorist attack, put a massive stop to illegal immigration and deported more criminals than any prior president, ended ISIS as a threat forever, saved millions of lives by stopping Syrian chemical weapons in the tracks, saved a major NATO ally (Turkey), revitalized the entire US economy while paving the way to the future, saved more millions of American lives by single-handedly fixing a broken health care system, turned us back into a real superpower, and prevented otherwise inevitable nuclear wars with Russia and North Korea. And probably a hundred or a thousand more I didn't quote. The man is insane.

I am  surprised that he hasn't taken credit for beautiful sunsets.

Cutting EPA regulations => More air pollution => More colorful sunsets.  QED.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 42 (+4)
Disapprove 53 (-4)

Trump's best result in this survey in a very long time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup is usually so stable. It's still within his average though.

Prior to the last couple of samples, Gallup had a couple months of unusual stability, but that was exceptional.  Before that it was typically noisy for the most part.  Check out the weekly average graph. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does trump still have lowest approval of any modern president at this point in the term?

Probably not.  I'm fairly sure Carter was lower at this point in 1978, and even Reagan (who declined steadily until early 1983) may have been lower at the end of April 1982.

[GeorgiaModerate]

My sources tell me a major poll is about to drop, will be very bad for Trump. You'll be STUNNED./s

Is this on the level, or are you parodying the resident trolls?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump’s rating on rcp avg is up to 43%

Not great by any means, but we are getting into territory where it is only marginally worse than some other presidents at this point in their terms

YMMV, but I view 538 as a more sophisticated aggregate/average, especially how they break down bu all polls, polls of adults, and polls of RVs/LVs.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Monmouth, April 26-30, 803 adults (change from March)

Approve 41 (+2)
Disapprove 50 (-4)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Last weeks we saw Trump's numbers fall and GCB numbers improve for Republicans.
Now we see Trump's numbers improve and GCB getting worse for Republicans.

I’m still more or less convinced this is all noise and opinions of Trump are more or less baked into the cake at this point

I think the way that Trump approval and GCB have been cycling in opposite directions supports it being noise.  If there were a real public opinion shift, it would be more likely for them to both move toward one side or the other.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 26-30, 2364 adults

Approve 43 (+4)
Disapprove 53 (-3)

Third poll in a row from a good pollster with a significant bump for Trump.  I'm willing to call that a trend.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Let's not forget that this is Monmouth and Rasmussen. I have no doubt that Trump is getting a bump from North Korea, but the two are almost definitely going to inflate his numbers, as they always do.

I wasn't counting Rasmussen as one of the three good pollsters; my standards are higher than that.   They were:

Gallup: -19 to -11 (net +8)
Monmouth: -15 to -9 (net +6)
Ipsos: -17 to -10 (net +7)

I agree that Korea is probably fueling a lot of this.  Presidents tend to get credit/blame for things that happen on their watch, whether or not they're directly responsible for them. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

What bump did Obama get for getting bin Laden?

Obama had a good bump that lasted about a month.  Bin Laden was killed on May 2, 2011.  Obama approvals in Gallup:

4/6: 45/47
4/11: 46/46
4/16: 44/47
4/21: 44/47
4/26: 43/48
5/1: 46/45
---
5/6: 51/41
5/11: 51/42
5/15: 46/44
5/20: 49/43
5/25: 52/42
5/31: 49/42
---
6/4: 47/45
6/9: 45/46
6/14: 47/47

[GeorgiaModerate]

Two new polls with small bumps for Trump, but not as dramatic as the ones from Gallup etc.

Morning Consult/Politico, April 26-May 1, 1991 RV

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 53 (-2)

YouGov, April 29-May 1, 1500 adults

Approve 40 (+2)
Disapprove 50 (+1)

538 average is 41.1/53.0

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's real ... but why exactly ?

Why would North Korea bump his approval ? I thought people are so hard in their opinions on Trump by now that things are not moving by more than 1% in either direction.

Maybe it has to do with the good economy and most Americans now getting used to the fact that Trump's Presidency might be chaotic and excentric, but it's not the end of the world.

Still, 50% approval is still hard to imagine.

No, I think it's mostly Korea.  The economy isn't any better than it was a month ago.

The developments in Korea look promising.  Whether or not anything changes, they certainly create the impression that a peaceful and perhaps long-lasting settlement is possible.  Compare this to a few months ago when it appeared we might be edging close to a nuclear conflict.  How long this lasts is an open question, but right now it looks like a big improvement.

As has been noted elsewhere, Presidents tend to get credit (or blame) for stuff that happens on their watch, whether or not they're directly involved in it.  And in this specific case, Trump has been very vocal about North Korea for months, so he's linked with it in the public mind.  Whether or not his rhetoric had any real effect on the situation, he's associated with a situation that has improved.