Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, April 1-3, 1500 adults

Approve 38 (-1)
Disapprove 52 (+3)

Strongly approve 20 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, March 29-April 1, 1997 RV

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult 50-state approval tracker, March 1-31, 97,693 RV

https://morningconsult.com/2018/04/05/trumps-monthly-approval-rating-hits-record-low-in-march/

Overall: 41/54, which is a record low for this poll.

There is state-level data at https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/.  I know what pbrower2a will be doing today.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult 50-state approval tracker, March 1-31, 97,693 RV

https://morningconsult.com/2018/04/05/trumps-monthly-approval-rating-hits-record-low-in-march/

Overall: 41/54, which is a record low for this poll.

There is state-level data at https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/.  I know what pbrower2a will be doing today.

Some notable state results (comparison to January 2017 numbers):

AZ 48/49 (55/35)
CO 41/56 (45/44)
FL 48/48 (56/34)
IA 43/53 (49/40)
ME 42/54 (48/40)
MI 41/55 (48/40)
NH 43/54 (45/44)
NV 45/51 (49/39)
OH 46/50 (51/37)
PA 44/52 (49/39)
TX 50/46 (54/34)
VA 43/52 (49/41)
WI 42/54 (47/41)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rasmussen:

Approve: 47% (-4)
Disapprove: 51% (+3)

Strongly Approve: 30% (-3)
Strongly Disapprove: 41% (+3)

And this is why we should ignore Rassy - that kind of swing in *one day* is not believable

They use a rolling average (5 days, I think).  This kind of swing could be an extreme outlier sample dropping in or out.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Handy reference:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, March 29-April 4, 14018 adults (12318 RV)

Among all adults:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 55 (nc)

Strongly approve 23 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 43 (nc)

Among RV:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 25 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (nc)

Zzzzz.....

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 1-5, 1761 adults

Approve 37 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 1-5, 1761 adults

Approve 37 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

Oops

Oopsos

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 41 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Bit of an uptick for Trump after several very stable weeks.

[GeorgiaModerate]

icitizen, March 22-April 4, 800 adults (previous poll March 8-21)

URL given is https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.s3.amazonaws.com/polls/20180409_icitizen_national.pdf, but I get a certificate error when I click on this.

Approve 38 (-4)
Disapprove 62 (+4)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harvard Institute of Politics Spring 2018 youth poll, March 8-25, 2631 adults age 18-29 only

Approve 25
Disapprove 72

(No change from their Fall 2017 poll.)  Other items:

Generic Congressional ballot: 69 D, 28 R (D+41) -- change from 65/33

37% say they will definitely be voting, compared to 23% in 2014 and 31% in 2010.  This includes 51% of young Democrats and 36% of young Republicans.  In 2014, it was 28% of Ds and 31% of Rs; in 2010, it was 35% of Ds and 41% of Rs.

Additional details at http://iop.harvard.edu/spring-2018-poll.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harvard Institute of Politics Spring 2018 youth poll, March 8-25, 2631 adults age 18-29 only

Approve 25
Disapprove 72

(No change from their Fall 2017 poll.)  Other items:

Generic Congressional ballot: 69 D, 28 R (D+41) -- change from 65/33

What could account for the nine point swing on the congressional ballot with steady approval numbers? I don't think we've seen that trend in polls of the general population over that span of time. What gives?

Gun control support following Parkland, perhaps?

[GeorgiaModerate]

To be blunt, I get tired of watching his approval ratings go up slightly in one direction or the other and the massive amount of hot takes that follow.

You guys were expecting something else from Atlas?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump approvals are still cruddy, but is it fair to say at this point that mueller developments aren't really affecting his polling? Neither the flynn or manafort indictments did much, and the cohen stuff looks to not be moving needle either.

This is probably true, and I suspect that developments in the investigation won't move the needle much unless Trump is either directly implicated in something, or starts taking action that would be perceived as subverting the investigation, such as firing Rosenstein or Mueller.  (Firing Comey was something that appears to have actually affected his approvals significantly.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, April 5-11, 16160 adults (14150 RV)

Among all adults:

Approve 44(+1)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-1)

Among RV:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 26 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP, April 9-10, 618 RV

Approve 40 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

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I thought they only released polls on Mondays now?

I guess the movement the last couple of days warranted numbers being released before Monday.

Edit: Or it could be a separate poll from their tracker, but then why would they have two separate polls going?

This is a separate poll from their weekly job approval tracker.  This is a less frequent poll on favorability, which may differ from job approval.  Source: http://news.gallup.com/poll/232433/trump-favorable-rating-dips.aspx

[GeorgiaModerate]

Amusing to see those two polls come out so close together (in both time and result) but with very different movements from their previous results.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup:

Approve - 39%(-2)
Disapprove - 55%(+1)


http://news.gallup.com/poll/203207/trump-job-approval-weekly.aspx?g_source=link_newsv9&g_campaign=item_201617&g_medium=copy


Zzzzzzzzzz....

Exactly reversing the small bump from last week.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 12-16, 1154 adults

Approve 39 (-1)
Disapprove 57 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, April 13-16, 1995 RV

Approve 41 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+3)

Strongly approve 20 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist, April 10-13, 1011 adults (827 RV)

Approve 38 (-2)
Disapprove 54 (+3)

Strongly approve 22 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, April 13-16, 1995 RV

Approve 41 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+3)

Strongly approve 20 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+2)

I have no idea what's going on with polling. The live caller polls are going towards Trump, but the online-robo pollers are going the other way.

Marist is live caller, and it showed the same movement (-2/+3).

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov:

Approve - 38%(-2)
Disapprove - 53%(+4)

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4l31gznvf1/econTabReport.pdf

Seems to be a trend today.