Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, May 20-22, 1500 adults including 1263 registered voters

Among all adults:

Approve 38 (-1)
Disapprove 50 (nc)

Strongly approve 20 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 38 (nc)

Among RV:

Approve 41 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

Strongly approve 26 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 43 (nc)

GCB: D 43 (+1), R 38 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump is at his highest point in more than a year in the Huffpost Pollster aggregate. Upswing continues.

What’s he at there? I usually only look at rcp and 538

To summarize all 3:

HuffPo: 45.3/51.2 (-5.9)

RCP: 43.7/52.7 (-9.0)

538: 42.2/52.6 (-10.4)

EDIT: what if we average the averages?   The result is:

Approve 43.7
Disapprove 52.2

[GeorgiaModerate]

If you remove Rasmussen from the Huffpost aggregate, Trump drops 2 points.

Yeah and if you remove Lebron Janes the Celtics would’ve won the series

True, but Rasmussen is emphatically not the Lebron of pollsters.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wow!!!
Trump only -20 in net approval in CA among likely voters despite losing the state in 2016 by 30 points, according to new gold standard PPIC poll.



Trump's popularity has evidently grown in California since the 2016 election.

California isn’t going red but that’s great news for confessional republicans in the state. His approval is probably more or less even in the R held seats since the overall number is probably dragged way down by super democrat areas like LA and the Bay Area

What have they confessed to now?

On a more serious note, that split between adults and LV is extreme.  It makes me wonder more about their LV screen than anything else.

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, May 17-23, 13793 adults including 11888 registered voters

Among all adults:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+1)

Among RV:

Approve 47 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 29 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 41 (nc)

SurveyMonkey has been very stable for the last several weeks.

[GeorgiaModerate]

LimoLiberal says nothing important.

He holds Rasmussen high
And he lies!
Lyin' Limo

A hopeful haiku:

The trolls of Summer
Will they ever go away?
Sometime this Autumn?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup:
http://news.gallup.com/poll/203207/trump-job-approval-weekly.aspx?

Approve: 40 (-2)
Disapprove: 55 (+1)

Just one poll, of course - but it'll be interesting to see whether it's corroborated by other polls over the course of the week.

Actually, this is like the fifth pollster in a row showing a decline in approval for Trump. Two or three more and I'm calling it a trend.

Ras has him at 47/52 today.  He hasn't been that low for a couple weeks (May 15) and hasn't been lower for a couple months (March 29).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Reuters:

Approve: 39
Disapprove: 56

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/389852-seattle-area-prosecutor-an-elected-republican-flips-to-democratic-party

The swinginess is almost certainly explained by sampling. Wish they’d stay consistent with who they sample so their polls wouldn’t be so sclerotic

Wrong link?

Today's is http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/CP3_2/type/smallest/dates/20180201-20180528/collapsed/true.  To get the most current, go to http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/ and click the "President Trump" box.   You can also get to the current GCB from this page; click the "Congress" box.

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, May 24-30, 13531 adults including 11682 registered voters

Among all adults:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-1)

Among RV:

Approve 47 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Strongly approve 29 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 41 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, May 24-30, 13531 adults including 11682 registered voters

Among all adults:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-1)

Among RV:

Approve 47 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Strongly approve 29 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 41 (nc)

That's with even party id?

Yes.  Among all adults party ID is 29R, 29D, 38 I/neither.  When the last group is pushed, they leaned 23R, 22D, 47 neither.

Among RV, it's 31R, 31D, 35 I/neither.  The last group leans 28R, 26D, 43 neither when pushed.

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, May 24-30, 13531 adults including 11682 registered voters

Among all adults:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-1)

Among RV:

Approve 47 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Strongly approve 29 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 41 (nc)

That's with even party id?

Yes.  Among all adults party ID is 29R, 29D, 38 I/neither.  When the last group is pushed, they leaned 23R, 22D, 47 neither.

Among RV, it's 31R, 31D, 35 I/neither.  The last group leans 28R, 26D, 43 neither when pushed.

Uhh, don't Democrats have a registration age?

Yes, it's not a very realistic sample.  (Note that SurveyMonkey has a D- in 538's new pollster ratings.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 55 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 55 (nc)

The beginning of the Korea/Economy bump forming. I hope some good news for Dems come quick.

Only a hack would consider -14 to be "good" for Trump.

He's now claiming a 1-point movement is a bump?  Yeah, that's a hack. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos, May 31-June 4, 1593 adults

Approve 39 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, June 3-5, 1500 adults including 1292 registered voters.

Among all adults:

Approve 39 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (+4)

Strongly approve 23 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (nc)

Among RV:

Approve 42 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (+3)

Strongly approve 27 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+1)

GCB: D 44 (+2), R 38 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Isn't Quinnipiac the poll that said Mitt Romney would win? Sounds like they actually have a Republican bias.

According to 538, their bias is D+0.1 -- effectively neutral.

[GeorgiaModerate]

IBD/TIPP

Approve: 36% (-2)
Disapprove: 55% (-1)

Approval amongst men down nine points to 47%

Amongst women, it's UP five points to an already sh**tty 34%

They kept mentioning a poll from May but I couldn't find any trace of it. So the difference is from March.

https://www.investors.com/politics/trump-job-approval-economy-korea-favorability-ibd-tipp-poll/

May poll (38/56): https://www.investors.com/politics/trump-impeachment-approval-rating-economy-quality-of-life-ibd-tipp-poll/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ispos/Reuters

Approve: 38% (-6)
Disapprove: 56% (+3)

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2018-06/2018_reuters_tracking_-_core_political_06_06_2018.pdf

Are they trying to balance out their earlier outlier??

[GeorgiaModerate]

Texas: PPP, May 21-22, 861 LV

Approve 49
Disapprove 46

(Apologies if this was previously posted.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, May 31-June 6, 21660 adults including 18771 registered voters

Among all adults:

Approve 45 (nc)  [This is now NINE consecutive weeks at 44 or 45.]
Disapprove 53 (+1)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+2)

Among RV:

Approve 46 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

Strongly approve 28 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos tracker (5-day rolling), June 3-7, 1583 adults

Approve 38 (-3)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

It's actually 38.4/55.8, so closer to -17 than -18.

[GeorgiaModerate]

...but most Americans have been doing better in the past 2 years than they were before 2016. It's easy to see why GOP partisans are mostly sticking with the President when their pockets are fatter and the economy is improving. Many don't like some specific Trump action.... but the USA is doing better than it was before 2016.

Name something significant that Trump has done to contribute to the economy.  What specific action of meaningfulness has he done that suddenly changed the (already steadily growing) economy?  Really.  I'm very eager to read your response.

I strongly disapprove of Trump.

I am just saying, from the perspective of the average person, the economy has improved since 2016, which makes it easier for the average person to back him.

There's an asymmetric aspect to this.  When the economy is bad, it's very much on people's minds.  The President/party in power tends to be blamed for the bad economy, fairly or not, and this hurts their prospects.  But when the economy is going well, it recedes from people's attentions in favor of other issues.  Most other current issues are not favorable to Trump for the average voter.  Obviously, Trump's positions on these issues help him with his core voters; everything helps him with that group, but as many others have pointed out, his core supporters by themselves are not enough to reelect him. 

TL; DR: a good economy won't help the President as much as a bad economy will hurt him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly, June 11:

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, June 7-13, 11226 adults including 9872 registered voters

Among all adults:

Approve 45 (nc)  [5th straight week at 45, and 10th straight at either 44 or 45]
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 27 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (-1)

Among RV:

Approve 47 (+2)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 30 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democracy Corps (D), June 1-5, 1400 RV with a subsample of 518 in 12 "battleground states": AZ, CO, FL, GA, MI, MN, NV, NM, OH, PA, TN, WI

National:

Approve 45 (strongly 21)
Disapprove 55 (strongly 42)

Battleground states:

Approve 46 (strongly 20)
Disapprove 54 (strongly 40)

Generic Congressional ballot: National D 51, R 42 (D+9), Battleground states D 49, R 43 (D+6)