Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump at 31/66 in the state of New York per Quinnipiac.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Some interesting numbers from Morning Consult.  Trump approval by district PVI range:

Safe D (PVI > D+10): 29/67 (strongly 13/54)
Lean D (D+5 to D+10): 35/61 (strongly 15/47)
Tossup (R+5 to D+5): 41/55 (strongly 19/42)
Lean R (R+5 to R+10): 46/50 (strongly 22/37)
Safe R (> R+10): 53/42 (strongly 26/30)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump has lost a significant amount of support among union members since he took office, which doesn't bode well for him holding onto states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in 2020:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

BTW, I worded my question really poorly.

When I asked "what would a national map look like if he is at 44 nationally?".....I meant what would a map of his approval/disapproval by state look like, not how an election would look.

Obviously depends on his opponent, but considering he got 46.1% of the PV with a 38.7% approval, I’d say there’s a good chance he’d win a majority of the PV at 44% approval.

Mapwise, I’d say it would be 2016 + NH + NV + MN. CO would be very close.

No, he had 38.7% favorability, not approval.  They aren't the same thing.  In 2016 Trump had no track record to run on, or that his opponents could run against.  Now he does have a track record, and it's one that has majority disapproval, and intense disapproval at that; in those polls that measure intensity, strong disapproval tends to far outweigh strong approval.

Also, in 2020 Trump probably wouldn't be running against an opponent as unpopular as Hillary Clinton was.  If Trump is at 44% approval against a reasonably popular Democrat, I would expect him to lose a close race, say 2016 minus WI, MI, PA, ME-2 and perhaps a couple of others.  If he's at 41.4% (the current 538 average) it won't be that close.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Reuters/Ipsos, National, 4/27-5/1

Adults
Approve - 48
Disapprove - 49

Registered Voters
Approve - 49
Disapprove - 49

Interesting commentary in the release:

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I suspect this has a lot to do with it being an outlier:

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That seems very Republican-heavy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I get it man. I hate him too, and I’m not voting GOP for a looooong time after the cowardly way they’ve acquiesced to his nonsense in return for the crumbs of their agenda. But considering the macro environment, 42% approvals and a -10 on average net rating is BAD. A President Romney or President Rubio would, conservatively, be in the high 50s

This sums up something I've been thinking about for a while.  I grew up as a Republican and was a member of the party for a long time; except for a brief fling with Libertarianism in the 1980s, it's the only party I've ever formally belonged to.  I still get mail from the RNC.  But above all I'm a centrist, and as the GOP moved further and further to the right, I started calling myself an Independent.  However, my policy has always been to vote for the candidate, not the party.  In recent years I've voted for more Democrats than others, because they're now closer to the center; but even within the last couple of elections I've voted for both Republicans and Democrats (and Libertarians and Independents, for that matter).

When Trump was elected, I hoped that it would just be a brief aberration, and that decent men and women in the party, of which there are many, would act as a check on his excesses.  Instead the GOP has consistently rolled over for Trump, and very few of them have been willing to put principle over partisanship (there are some exceptions, such as McCain voting to defeat the repeal of the ACA.)  The party as a whole has abandoned any pretense of honor or decency.

So my message to the Republican Party is this: We're done.  I'm divorcing you due to irreconcilable differences.  My new policy is that I will not vote for any Republican candidate for any office under any circumstances.  If you ever get over Trumpism, feel free to give me a call and we'll talk about it.  But it's up to you to make that move if you ever want my vote again.

[GeorgiaModerate]

IBD/TIPP, April 26-May 4, 900 adults

Approve 38 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult, May 3-7, 1992 RV

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 21 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, May 6-8, 1500 adults including 1232 RV

Among all adults:

Approve 42 (+2)
Disapprove 45 (-5)

Strongly approve 23 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 36 (-4)

Among RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 27 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-3)

...but weirdly, the GCB went from D+3 to D+9.

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, May 3-9, 9842 adults including 8576 RV

Among all adults:

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+1)

Among RV:

Approve 45 (-2)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

Strongly approve 26 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

You guys would rather bad things to happen to America if it meant his numbers would drop

I didn't read it that way at all.  His comment was just that Trump's numbers are low even though things are going pretty well.  That's not at all the same as wishing bad things would happen to make the numbers go lower (which might or might not even happen).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Poll from Firehouse Strategies (R) of 2486 likely voters in four swing state: FL, OH, PA, and WI.

This doesn't have Trump approval, but does have his favorability at 42/44 (compared to 44/46 in Feb.)  It also has some other interesting questions in it that are worth a look.  But I posted it mostly to comment on their sampling methodology.

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Landline only, and their LV model is mostly based on having voted in 2010 or 2014.  This is not going to generate a good model of this year's electorate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, May 6-10, 1529 adults

Approve 44 (-2)
Disapprove 54 (+3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Reuters Poll Crosstab:

18-34 year olds-

Approve: 33% (-9)
Disapprove: 65% (+11)

SAD!

It was really 42/54 among 18-34 y.o. in the previous poll?  That seems...less than realistic.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Also, Zogby (yes, I know):

Approve 46 (-2)
Disapprove 51 (+2)

Strongly approve 22 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 36 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, May 13-15, 1500 adults including 1231 RV

Among all adults:

Approve 39 (-3)
Disapprove 50 (+5)

Strongly approve 23 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 38 (+2)

Among RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Strongly approve 28 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (nc)

GCB: D 42 (-2), R 37 (+2).  So once again, YouGov moves in opposite directions for Trump approval and GCB...but they're the opposite opposite directions from last week.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Tennessee: Vanderbilt University, April 26-May 8, 1400 RV (change from December)

Approve 53 (+5)
Disapprove 44 (-3)

Favorability: Marsha Blackburn 49/38, Phil Bredesen 67/25

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, May 10-16, 20556 including 17617 RV

Among all adults:

Approve 45 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

Strongly approve 26 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-3)

Among RV:

Approve 46 (+1)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 29 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, May 10-16, 20556 including 17617 RV

Among RV:


Strongly disapprove 41 (-2)

What?!?  It's really that bad? 

His strongly disapprove numbers are much higher than strongly approve in almost all polls.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Congrats Senator Heller.

https://twitter.com/RileySnyder/status/997170065182085121

Would it be too much of an inconvenience for you to post polls without your trollish commentary?

Spoiler: yes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, May 10-16, 20556 including 17617 RV

Among RV:


Strongly disapprove 41 (-2)

What?!?  It's really that bad?  

His strongly disapprove numbers are much higher than strongly approve in almost all polls.

Even among republican voters? That's incredibly suprising. I wonder what Obama's peak strongly disapprove among democrats was.

Ah, I think I see the misinterpretation here.  "RV" is forum shorthand for registered voters.  Were you interpreting it as Republican voters?

EDIT: here's the breakdown by party ID from that SurveyMonkey poll (strongly approve / somewhat approve / somewhat disapprove / strongly disapprove):

Republican: 62/26/6/5
Lean R: 53/34/9/4
Independent: 11/26/23/37
Lean D: 1/6/16/76
Democrat: 4/7/14/73

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG, May 17-20, 1100 adults (change from last month)

Approve 37 (-1)
Disapprove 58 (+2)

Approval/disapproval by party ID:

R: 82/14
D: 6/91
I: 34/60

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG, May 17-20, 1100 adults (change from last month)

Approve 37 (-1)
Disapprove 58 (+2)

Approval/disapproval by party ID:

R: 82/14
D: 6/91
I: 34/60

Inconsistent with a bump for promises of a nuke deal with North Korea by the alleged Great Negotiator. Poor pollster, but consistent with Trump support being 40% or lower.

Not necessarily.  ARG has always had poor approval numbers for Trump.  I think they've been in the 30's for his entire presidency.

[GeorgiaModerate]

All three polls today are a slump. Is it a trend? We don't know yet. But Trump's momentum has definitely stalled.

Possibly, but two of the three were from lousy pollsters (Rasmussen and ARRRGGGG), so I'd like to see more confirmation before thinking it's a trend.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/PollsAndVotes/status/998747073284640768