Yeah, this race is over. Sorry, Fox, but Moore will (most likely) win.
I just don’t understand how anyone can be this confident of any result here.
In similar races, like MA '10 and MO '12, all of the late polls showed Brown/McCaskill ahead. Here we're seeing a mixed bag at best for Jones. I stand by my earlier statement that Jones has about a 30% chance of victory, but obviously I'm going to go with the 70% chance Moore has from a prognostication standpoint.
30% ≠ Over. 30% chance is pretty significant, and 70% very far from a sure thing.
I seem to recall some other election recently where one candidate was given a 30% chance and won...now what was that...
(This is of course not meant to imply that one 30% event occurring means that another necessarily will; I'm just agreeing with Castro that 30% is indeed far from "over".)
