Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[GeorgiaModerate]

AL.com has published an impassioned open letter to Moore from his first accuser, Leigh Corfman:

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/11/roy_moore_leigh_corfman_accuse.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just when you thought it couldn't get more insane:

Roy Moore co-authored legal course that argues women should not be permitted to run for office

It's like he's trying to lose the female vote two-to-one.

When Michelle Bachmann ran for president, I remember that some journalist who covered the Republican primary encountered many Republican women who said that they liked her and her politics, but wouldn't vote for her because "women aren't capable of being president".

Ann Coulter and Phyllis Schlafly are/were also against women's suffrage.

I'm all for Coulter not voting.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Alabama SoS says interest in write-in voting has been "extraordinary".

[GeorgiaModerate]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

These people are deranged. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

From what I've seen, Allred's refusal to allow a neutral third party to examine the yearbook and confirm if it is or is not Moore's handwriting has led to a lot of people doubting the accusations. There is absolutely no reason to do that if it is authentic. I think Moore will narrowly win since there's no actual confirmed evidence, Doug Jones is so liberal, and Alabama is so conservative. If Jones didn't support late term abortion, amnesty, and gun control, maybe things would be different, but his only hope is winning a slim plurality due to republican write-ins.

I have been saying that for over a week.  But the lefties here are too dense to understand the problem.  The charges are late hits.  And with the yearbook available lots of folks are not going to accept the charges unless the yearbook is validated.  And they call me dense. They have me beat by a mile.

I still say that if Moore really wanted the notebook examined, he should have filed suit, as he's threatened to do.  You've made the point in response that there wasn't enough time left for a response; however, he could have moved for expedited discovery, and under the circumstances I think it's quite likely to have been granted.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is this turning into a faith thread? 

Please don't.

[GeorgiaModerate]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So I had a dream about this election last night. It's a bit hazy but I'll write down what I remember:

There weren't any more bombshells or scandals emerging between yesterday and election night. Polling was scattered, similar to VA-Gov. Everybody was very cautious.

I'm reading tweets about turnout projections, which are staggeringly low, etc. It's blamed on the weather, overcast with predictions of heavy rain.

Then in the afternoon, which looked like evening because it was dark, there's breaking news on NBC about several incidents of white-hooded KKK rallies at polling sites in the Black Belt and Ivey was calling the National Guard to help protect voters.

Obviously atlas was saying that Jones is doomed.

Then I don't remember much in the hours that followed, but when polls closed, there were reports of long lines in Black Belt precincts and in Montgomery, Birmingham, and Huntsville. Some tweet by some politico said that the Jones campaign spent a lot of its remaining money on buying and distributing umbrellas to people who were coming to the polls.

So now the interesting part: whoops, this was hazy. I woke up before the results were finalized, but I remember that the map on NBC had Madison, Mobile, and one of the SE Alabama counties be (non-atlas) blue.

Try to pick it up from there tonight, and let us know how it turns out.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What’s the sample size on the WaPo poll?

739 likely voters.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What’s the sample size on the WaPo poll?

739 likely voters.

Ah, thank you. Was hoping for 1,000+, which would have given me more confidence. Still, it’s a data point and therefore worth something.

I still say Moore by 5.

Bigger samples are always better, but increasing sample size from 739 to 1000 would only decrease MoE from 3.6% to 3.1%.  As others have pointed out, the difficulty with polling this election is the turnout model.  Off-year and special elections are always tricky to model, and the crazy circumstances in this one make it exceptionally tough.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If Jones does win, I do expect McConnell to put up a fuss about seating him even without legal standing.

Why do you think that?  If the election is certified by the Alabama SoS, there would be no grounds to refuse to seat the winner.  McConnell is terrible in many ways, but I can't see him doing that just to be awful.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Some in AL business community worried about effects of a Moore win

[GeorgiaModerate]

If strange or brooks had won the GOP primary, what would the polls currently show? Maybe strange +7 and Brooks +15?

Probably a larger margin than that for Strange, at least +10.  Your +15 for Brooks sounds reasonable.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's a sample ballot from Baldwin County.

What happens if a voter fills in the circle beside 'Republican' AND the circle beside 'Doug Jones'?  I can't find the answer.

snip

I believe Siren actually asked that question a while ago and found out that you can select straight ticket, but if you also fill in the option for a specific Senate candidate, it will count for that candidate.

It's bizarre that they include the straight-party voting option at all when there is literally only one race on the ballot.

There's probably a requirement that it be printed.

[GeorgiaModerate]

There are now 9 candidates, an unusually high number for Alabama.

Candidates:
Roy Moore (R)
Doug Jones (D)
Mack McBride (I)
Ron Bishop (L)
Eulas Kirtdoll (I)
Mac Watson (R)
Chanda Mills Crutcher (I)
Lee Busby (R)
Jeff Coggin (I)

Is there a runoff if neither candidate crosses 50%?

No.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kaitlan Collins‏ @kaitlancollins 31 minutes ago
Requests for absentee ballots are way up in Alabama. Madison County, the third most populated, has sent out 2,900 & received 2,016 so far. That's much higher than the 650 they sent during the runoff & even surpasses the 1,900 they received during 2014 governor's race.

Kaitlan Collins @kaitlancollins 7 minutes ago
Replying to @kaitlancollins
Officials in Mobile County, the second most populated, tell me they have sent out nearly 2,000 absentee ballots.

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/938132179170873349

Madison County = Huntsville = highly educated. Good sign for Jones if it's disproportionately represented.

I'm not necessarily disagreeing that Jones would need support from there to win, but this is a county that voted SOLIDLY for Donald Trump ... "educated county = Democratic county" is ridiculous.

True, but "educated" may well mean "less Moore-friendly".  In the first-round R primary, Moore got only 19% of the Madison County vote, compared to Brooks's 50% and Strange's 27%.  Strange also won the county in the runoff.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It appears that Roy Moore, that fine upstanding defender of Christian morality, started dating his wife before she had filed for divorce from her previous husband.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/court-records-suggest-roy-moore-dated-wife-while-she-was-still-married/article/2642679

I guess he must have seen an asterisk on the Seventh Commandment.

[GeorgiaModerate]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

More likely to help Moore or Jones?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Crystal Ball final analysis of the race, including what a Jones victory map might look like:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/alabama-senate-closing-time/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not that it will change any Republican's mind, but DAMN! This guy is insane.

https://twitter.com/chrismassie/status/938833735893561350

Wanted to share a video of Roy Moore in 1997 arguing that kids commit drive-by shooting because they are taught evolution in school: "They're acting like animals because we've taught them they come from animals."

Someone should ask him how many non-human animals have committed drive-by shootings.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I feel more uncertain about this race than any for a long time.  Really wouldn't be surprised by any outcome here, even a blowout.

[GeorgiaModerate]

WHAT THE FYCK IS WRONG WITH THESE PEOPLE!!!

http://beta.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-alabama-senate-runoff-20170921-story.html

In response to a question from one of the only African Americans in the audience — who asked when Moore thought America was last "great" -- Moore acknowledged the nation's history of racial divisions, but said: "I think it was great at the time when families were united — even though we had slavery — they cared for one another…. Our families were strong, our country had a direction."

Well, you can't say that he isn't presenting a clear choice. 

Hopefully this goes into an ad on every media outlet in Alabama.

[GeorgiaModerate]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Evan McMullin's group buys $500K of anti-Moore ads: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/12/08/anti-trump-conservatives-place-500000-ad-buy-against-roy-moore

[GeorgiaModerate]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Jesus, this guy is a suspected pedophile, hardcore theocrat, and now a Putin apologist... could he be any worse?

Yes he could have have been a cowardly drunk, who left a young lady in the back of his car to die in a pond.

Do you have that already loaded in a file for easy copying?  It's amazing how many times you bring it up.