MS Megathread: Hyde-Smith wins by 8

[GeorgiaModerate]

Speaking of McDaniel: https://www.clarionledger.com/story/opinion/columnists/2017/12/13/roy-moore-mississippi-fallout-chris-mcdaniel-cant-catch-break/948061001/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Cochran expected to resign in January according to Politico

Senator Presley

Mississippi politics will be All Shook Up.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Brandon Presley won't be a candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018.


Also, is there any way to rename this thread something like:  "MS 2018 Megathread?"  Most of the discussion here has strayed from the original topic (a possible Cochran resignation) and we could even combine the thread on Harper's retirement with this one.

Against Wicker, he never said he wouldn’t run in a special.

Eh, he doesn't mention anything about Wicker specifically.  And his statement is construed in such a way that is a pretty inclusive 'no' about going to Washington at all this year. 

Also, I don't think we'll be getting a special election this year.

What's the latest date that Cochran could resign that would still allow/require a special election this year?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Bryant says he won't appoint himself if Cochran resigns and isn't interested in running for Senate: http://www.wwltv.com/article/news/nation-now/miss-gov-not-interested-in-senate-run-despite-urging-from-trump-mcconnell/465-32b0ba69-e655-4aef-a8fd-de45733c6853

[GeorgiaModerate]

Reposting from Friday:

Bryant says he won't appoint himself if Cochran resigns and isn't interested in running for Senate: http://www.wwltv.com/article/news/nation-now/miss-gov-not-interested-in-senate-run-despite-urging-from-trump-mcconnell/465-32b0ba69-e655-4aef-a8fd-de45733c6853

[GeorgiaModerate]

A funny thought: perhaps enough Democrats might cross over to vote for McDaniel in order to have a weaker Republican in November.  This would be a counterpoint to the 2014 election, when he claimed that Democrats crossing over were the cause of his primary defeat.  (http://www.jacksonfreepress.com/news/2014/aug/20/mississippi-primaries-open-or-not/)

[GeorgiaModerate]

What scandals does Mcdaniels have?

There was this one from the 2014 race: https://www.npr.org/2014/05/30/317362310/in-mississippi-a-senate-race-derailed-by-a-bloggers-photos

[Note: It's McDaniel (no "s" on the end).]

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gov. Bryant says (again) that he won't appoint himself to replace Cochran: https://apnews.com/6a3985edb3ce4bf0bcab117d5de1d085

[GeorgiaModerate]

Still, McDaniel will get to prance around and define her by telling people that she voted for Obummer or Killary.

Obama and Clinton together got only 98% of the vote in the primary.  Maybe she was one of the other 2%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

When is the jungle primary?

November 6.

I thought the runoff was the part that was going to coincide with election day.

The runoff is the election that will be held three weeks after election day on November 27.

Woah, that close to Thanksgiving?!  Lean D.

That's the week after Thanksgiving, which falls on Nov. 22 this year (the earliest possible date for it).

[GeorgiaModerate]

I would move it to Toss-up, honestly. Espy is more likely to win than O'Rourke or Bredesen.

I think there's a good chance he ends up in first place on Nov. 6, but there's no way he breaks 50%; and if the runoff is against Hyde-Smith (which is likely), Espy would be the underdog.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I believe many pundits/observers are missing the very possible scenario that this runoff could decide control of the Senate.

I've seen several of them mention it.  Just today:

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1059578951843094528

[GeorgiaModerate]

'We don't want an Alabama': Hyde-Smith has Republicans holding their breath

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/25/mississippi-senate-cindy-hyde-smith-mike-espy-race-1014685

Her fears are probably unfounded. She's had less time to marinate in her gaffes than Moore did in Alabama. The news has been out for barely two weeks, whereas Moore had to deal with it for nearly 6 weeks. Not to mention voters in Mississippi are less likely to switch sides and are generally more partisan than other states.

They're more partisan than Alabama voters?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I am hoping for at least a double digit win for Cindy Hydemyselftoavoidgaffes-Smith. The racist Democrat Party must not be emboldened by a better-than-expected performance from Espy!

You used to at least be clever and creative with your trolling, now you are just lowballing and trying to trigger people, tsk.

Whatever the case may be with what you think of me 'trolling', a good performance for Espy is something anyone in the GOP needs to be concerned with. We absolutely cannot embolden the D's in any other safe red state now that Texas and Arizona and Georgia ain't so safe

Weren't you pretending to be a Democrat before the election?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I predict Hyde-Smith wins by 9%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Weren't you pretending to be a Democrat before the election?

??

It's possible I may have you confused with another poster.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Oh.....my......god

WHAT WHAT WHAT??

Everybody forgot to vote.  Hyde-Smith won 1-0.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm guessing it would be useless to tell the forum that it's way too soon to be jumping to conclusions.

Hey, at least I tried.

Atlas has Olympic-level conclusion jumpers.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1067590794658242560

The reporter he mentions sounds like certain Atlas posters.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1067594129515966464

[GeorgiaModerate]

An upset might still be a bridge too far, but this is certainly a lot more interesting than most of us ever expected.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well, when a party has ultimate control of the state they tend to have bad candidates. That's why we never have presidents from the South.

"Never" meaning not in the last 18 years, that is.  Or 10 if you consider Texas part of the South.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nate Silver on the 538 live blog:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

More from Silver:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

More from Silver:

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Seems like the more relevant comparison would be the D total vote (both Espy and Bartee), wouldn't it?

Is that saying he needs to overperform an an additional 9.4 points, or by around 1 point?

By 9.4 total, or 1 more than he was running at the time it was posted.