Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

[GeorgiaModerate]

The game Democrats and establishment Republicans are playing isn't going to work. The likes of you will not shame Alabama Republicans out of voting for Roy Moore. This isn't about the allegations. This is about the people of Alabama not letting outsiders have influence over the politics of their state.

Try again.  The allegations and corroborations are from people who lived IN the state at the time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The game Democrats and establishment Republicans are playing isn't going to work. The likes of you will not shame Alabama Republicans out of voting for Roy Moore. This isn't about the allegations. This is about the people of Alabama not letting outsiders have influence over the politics of their state.

Try again.  The allegations and corroborations are from people who lived IN the state at the time.

My point is that Alabama Republicans are sticking with Moore against the wishes of Democrats and establishment Republicans.

Maybe, maybe not.  "Alabama Republicans" is not a single entity that can only act one way.  It's a group consisting of a large number of people, each of whom makes his/her own choice.  The recent polls, especially today's JMC poll, indicate that not all of them are still supporting Moore.  We shall see on Dec. 12 how many of them actually do.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I said on Friday:

I have a feeling this story won't be the last shoe to drop.

(To be fair, that wasn't a difficult thing to predict.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Moore has announced his intention to sue WaPo. http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/13/politics/roy-moore-washington-post-lawsuit/index.html

I suspect this suit will actually be filed around the same time as the ones Trump was threatening to file against his accusers (i.e., never).

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mitch-mcconnell-says-roy-moore-should-step-aside/

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This will change the minds of absolutely 0 Roy Moore supporters.

Does point towards a possible ejection from the Senate if elected, though.

I have my doubts that the Senate Rs would do anything other than welcome Moore with open arms.

Unless they think they can hold a new special election that will get them an R more keen to their agenda and leadership IMO

Ejecting him is really the best-case scenario for the GOP. Governor Ivey just reappoints Strange and we hold a second special in 2018, and the GOP gets its safe vote without having to have the whole "We have a pedophile in the caucus" issue.

What's to stop Moore from running again in the second special election?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Senators Collins and Hatch have put out statements agreeing with McConnell.

[GeorgiaModerate]

"Josh Barro‏Verified account @jbarro 15s15 seconds ago
Uhoh. This accuser says she has a note in her high school yearbook, signed "love," from Roy Moore."


Just keeps getting worse.....

Prediction: he'll claim it's a forgery.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another prediction: there will be more and probably worse stories to come.  The pattern with these cases lately is that the first one just scratches the surface.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Daily Beast story has a picture of the yearbook entry.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Should note that, unless radical leftists have invented time travel to forge Moore's signature, there's no way this could have been faked. It matches up well with Moore's penmanship throughout the years.

Of course they have time travel.  That's how they inserted Obama's birth announcement in the Honolulu newspapers.

(Sorry for the digression)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Flake is the first prominent Republican to choose Jones over Moore: "If the choice is between Roy Moore and a Democrat, a Democrat no doubt."

[GeorgiaModerate]

AL.com editorial: Moore is grossly unfit for office

[GeorgiaModerate]

And here's the next episode:

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A Moore victory would be the worst possible outcome for the GOP at this point.   He'll be hung around the neck of every Republican candidate for every office in the country next year.

[GeorgiaModerate]

There's going to be a nation wide backlash against AL when Moore wins this. They will definitely be the butt of a lot of late night jokes throughout December.

I wonder if it would spark any business or convention boycotts of the state.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Flake makes the point even stronger:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Ted Cruz, kinda, sort of unendroses Roy Moore

Translation: "Say it ain't so, Roy."

[GeorgiaModerate]

AL.com: Gadsden locals say Moore's predatory behavior at mall, restaurants not a secret

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Secondary lesson from all this: whoever was doing opposition research for Mo Brooks and Luther Strange needs to be fired at once.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Can we stop with the cherry picking random internet comments to generalize about whole states? There are good people in Alabama, and most of them don't waste away their days spamming up AL.com.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Mo Brooks is still backing Moore because he'll "vote right": http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/360214-alabama-rep-im-still-backing-moore-because-hell-vote-right-in-the-senate

This is incredibly short-sighted.  A Moore win would be much worse for the GOP than a loss.  You think the Republicans have done well running every race against Nancy Pelosi?  Wait until the Democrats get to run against Roy Moore.  The Republicans are already going to have a rough time next year; this would make it a lot rougher.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wait so can someone explain the mechanism by which Jeff Sessions becomes Senator again (as the rumors are saying)?

Probably:

Moore wins and is expelled.
Sessions resigns as AG.
Gov. Ivey appoints Sessions to fill the vacancy and calls another special election.

[GeorgiaModerate]

No one should really be surprised by EnglishPete here. He defends most Republicans like this. The highest burden of proof is required for Republicans, while minimal proof required for everyone else. This is a story he was never going to believe unless Moore was caught loving on kids on video tape, 100% visible, and even then I still suspect he'd find ways to nitpick. The only thing that never ceases to amaze me about him is how oblivious to his own behavior he is. From his perspective, everything seems logical, straightforward and quite dumbfounding to him how no one else sees it the way he does.

Factoring in his deep distrust of the media and any other organizations or people that attempt to fact check conservatives, he is a very good example of the wave of paranoia that has infected conservatives over the past decade or two. They can't possibly be wrong, or possibly pick the worst candidates, no, everything is a conspiracy against them

Darn it, Virginia, you weren't supposed to admit it!  Now the cat is out of the bag.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If he wins, he will not be expelled. Having a full caucus is what Republicans want.

They still would. He gets expelled, then Ivey appoints Strange again (or maybe Sessions.)

It's a lot less complicated to keep Moore. They won't expel him.

Doesn't it just require a simple majority to refuse to seat him?

Democrats + Corker, Flake and someone else (McCain, Collins, Hatch?)

Doubtful.  See Powell v. McCormack (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Powell_v._McCormack).

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